The Canadian’s general manager, Kent Hughes, did not hide in his final report that he was ready to sign a player who could improve the team for several years. What if this athlete, so eagerly awaited by fans, was actually Quebecer Pierre-Luc Dubois, whose name has been associated with Montreal for some time?
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Last year, in an interview with TVA Sports, Pat Brisson, the Winnipeg Jets forward’s agent, indicated that his client was interested in one day donning the tricolor jersey.
At 24, Dubois will become a season-ending restricted free agent and should be free as air by the end of the 2023-2024 season.
Hughes also seems interested in the youngster who would become his organization’s big French-speaking star. Last summer, a source close to the file revealed to the Journal that the Canadian’s GM had made the Jets a very interesting offer during the 2022 draft.
But there is a but: In the same breath, the general manager added in his press conference on Friday that if he is interested in signing a player who can improve his young formation, it will be “without harming the future of the team”. will happen .
When it says standing between the lines, it means “without sacrificing too many top draft picks or top prospects.”
A youngster and first choice?
And that’s exactly what a player like Dubois should cost, according to an exercise that Le Journal has conducted in recent days with the help of an NHL scout and the company SportLogiq, which specializes in analyzing race statistics.
“Is it worth it for the Canadians to give a pick or even two first-round picks to a young player who is already on the team? Because that’s what he risks having to exchange to have it,” replies the Scout, who prefers his identity to be veiled.
This is a similar conclusion as SportLogiq when analyzing transactions involving players with a similar profile that have taken place in recent years.
Forwards who have proven to be very good additions to the teams that acquired them but who are not necessarily saviors as the recruiter claims.
“Dubois is an excellent hockey player, he insists, but he’s not a concession player like Connor McDavid or Auston Matthews.”
“In my eyes, he’s a second-line center,” he adds, specifying that the Quebecer “isn’t a top scorer, but he has good hands, a good size and a good kick.”
“And at 24 he can still improve. The problem, in my opinion, is that the Canadians don’t necessarily need another middle player. Rather, the team should gain experience in defense in order to support the young players.
Now or later?
The other problem is that once the potentially costly transaction is complete, the Saint-Agathe-des-Monts-born Laurentian will need to quickly secure a long-term deal.
A multi-year contract… also expensive, according to the comparisons provided by SportLogiq.
This pact would force Hughes to pirouette his paycheck. CH’s general manager will no doubt hand over heavy contracts, including that of Jonathan Drouin, from July next year.
But he has yet to combine a heritage from the Marc Bergevin era, most notably with those of Brendan Gallagher and Joel Armia.
In the context of reconstruction, why not wait for the next transaction deadline to conduct such a transaction instead?
Or wait until Dubois also becomes an unrestricted free agent in 2024 to lure him to Montreal without sacrificing picks or players?
“Whether the transaction is on the next draft or the next transaction date, the costs will be similar,” the recruiter believes. Unless, of course, Dubois’ stats went up a lot…or down a lot.”
Enough to fuel the discussions for a few more weeks. Or for a few months, depending on which route the Canadian prefers.
Very similar exchange
What could Pierre-Luc Dubois cost the Canadian if Kent Hughes acquires the center player via transaction next June? To see it more clearly, Sportlogiq, an expert in statistical analysis of the NHL, has compiled the exchanges that have taken place in recent years, involving players with a similar profile to the Quebecer. Like Dubois, these three forwards were, or were about to be, restricted free agents when they signed their names to the pact. They were all traded during draft or in the days leading up to it. One observation emerges from this analysis: to get your hands on a player of forward caliber takes at least a first-round pick and a high-profile prospect.
ALEX DEBRINCAT
July 7, 2022 (just before the first round of hope)
- Right winger, 24 years old at the time of the transaction
- Just had a season with 78 points in 82 games (41 goals, 37 assists)
- Traded by the Blackhawks to Senators for 2022 first- and second-round picks (who became Kevin Korchinski and Paul Ludwinski) and 2024 third-round picks
KEVIN FIALA
June 29, 2022 (9 days before draft)
- Left winger, 26 years old at the time of the transaction
- Just had an 85-point season in 82 games (33 goals, 52 assists)
- Traded from Wilds to Kings for 2022 first-round pick (now Liam Ohgren) and potential Brock Faber (2020 second-round defender)
SAM REINHART
July 24, 2021 (on day two of the draft)
- Center player, 25 years old at the time of the transaction
- Just had a 40-point season in 54 games (25 goals, 15 assists)
- Traded from the Sabers to the Panthers for 2022 first-round pick (now Jiri Kulich) and potential Devon Levi (2020 seventh-round goaltender).
Source: Data compiled by Sportlogiq for Le Journal
Comparable contracts
It’s one thing to sign a player like Pierre-Luc Dubois, but another to secure his services for several seasons. Again, Sportlogiq focused on deals signed by center players with a similar profile to the Quebecer in terms of age and stats. Here, too, one thing is striking: It will be expensive and for a long time. With Nick Suzuki already under contract (a pact similar to the one Dubois could touch, by the way), Cole Caufield who will no doubt be soon and other youngsters set to sign contract extensions in the coming seasons, the Canadian will do some calculations if he wants to keep Dubois’ services.
ROBERT THOMAS
- Signed with the Blues on July 13, 2022
- 23 years old at time of signing
- Just had a season with 77 points in 72 games (20 goals, 57 assists)
8 years / $65M (annual average of $8.125M)
JOSH NORRIS
- Signed with Senators on July 14, 2022
- 22 years old at the time of signing
- Just had a 55-point season in 66 games (35 goals, 20 assists)
8 years / $63.6M (annual average of $7.95M)
NICK SUZUKI
- Signed with the Canadians on October 12, 2021
- 21 years old at time of signing
- Just had a season with 41 points in 56 games (15 goals, 26 assists)
8 years / $63M (annual average of $7.875M)
DAYS THOMPSON
- Signed 30 August 2022 with the Sabers
- 24 years old at the time of signing
- Just had a season with 68 points in 78 games (38 goals, 20 assists)
7 years / $50M (annual average of $7.143M)
ROOPE HINTZ
- Signed November 29, 2022 with the stars
- 26 years old at the time of signing
- Just had a season with 72 points in 80 games (37 goals, 35 assists)
8 years / $67.6M (annual average of $8.45M)
Source: Data compiled by Sportlogiq for Le Journal