Ongoing Fighting In Sudan Raises Fears Of Regional Contagion

As clashes erupt again in Sudan, the crisis triggered in that African country a week ago over security force reform sparks fears of regional contagion and that forces from other countries may decide to intervene or support either side. Fighting between military rivals vying for power resumed on Saturday in the capital Khartoum near the presidential palace and the army general command. In addition, a shell hit the Mansura residential area in Um Durman near Khartoum, killing six people, humanitarian sources and witnesses told Efe news agency. Explosions can also be heard north of the presidential palace, and warplanes fly over the city, despite the planned ceasefire between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary group Rapid Support Forces (FAR).

The trick proposed by the UN for three days was not followed. Despite this, the head of the army, Abdelfatá al Burhan, announced that the evacuation of nationals from several countries, including the United States, France, China and the United Kingdom, would begin “in the next few hours”.

Food distribution in northern Khartoum on Saturday. MOHAMED NURELDIN ABDALLAH (Portal)

A first indication of the risks of third-party involvement in an already unstable region came on April 15 when fighting broke out in Khartoum. Another important battle was fought 300 kilometers to the north, taking place more unnoticed at a strategic airport air base in the town of Merowe, better known for the Nubian pyramids. The base was taken relatively easily by the paramilitaries, who quickly circulated a video from the site on social media. It made it clear that they wanted to show not just who was in control, but something more: Egyptian fighter jets stationed at the base and detained soldiers, some wearing Egyptian military uniforms.

According to local media, the Sudanese army retook Merowe earlier this week without resistance from the paramilitaries. By then, most Egyptian warplanes had already been destroyed, satellite images show. But when they left, the paramilitaries brought Egyptian soldiers into Khartoum, they admitted in a statement that felt like blackmail against Cairo, which has close ties to the Sudanese military. Egypt then issued a 72-hour ultimatum to FAR leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, Egyptian media reported. And shortly thereafter, the transfer of the uniformed to the Red Cross was confirmed. According to the army, all Egyptian troops involved had returned by Thursday.

The episode with the Egyptian soldiers points to the danger for the future of the fighting in Sudan, which emanates from a possible intervention by regional actors. The hostilities, which according to the World Health Organization (WHO) have already killed more than 400 people and injured 3,500, were sparked by an internal power struggle, not foreign interference. But as the clashes drag on, analysts fear forces from the region will invade and further escalate the conflict, as has happened in neighboring countries like Libya.

The Libyan predecessor

So far, there is no solid evidence that any actor from outside Sudan supports any of the warring factions. But distrust runs deep, especially towards non-state groups with which the FAR had ties before the conflict. One of them is the self-proclaimed Libyan National Army (LNA), which is strong in eastern Libya on the border with Sudan and has already denied helping Sudanese paramilitaries after being accused of sending them military support.

Another hypothetical actor is the Russian mercenary group Wagner, which already operates in neighboring countries such as Libya and the Central African Republic and has been active in Sudan for years, where it has good relations with Dagalo, mainly linked to gold trading, according to the US Treasury Department, but also for safety. The Wagner Group has been present in Sudan for years.

“FAR has some pre-existing ties, including with General [Khalifa] Hafter in Libya and also with the United Arab Emirates, but that does not necessarily mean that they are now being actively armed or resourced, although the situation warrants close scrutiny,” says scholar Sharath Srinivasan, author of When Peace Kills Politics: International”. Intervention and endless wars in Sudan.

Alleged interference by non-state groups such as the ENL and Wagner is not considered sufficient to upset the balance in Sudan as their capacity is limited. However, there are fears that if it does occur, this could be enough to sustain the disruption.

“When we talk about other countries’ involvement, it’s not necessarily governments, it’s rebels and militias,” said Cameron Hudson, a former CIA operative with experience in Sudan and an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “If it’s serious, governments can easily get involved,” he warns.

A key country is the United Arab Emirates, which for years has been weaving a complex web of intermediaries, corporations and mercenaries to further its interests in the region, including Hafter in Libya, Dagalo in Sudan and the Wagner Group, among others, he says , researcher from King’s College London who has been following Emirati operations in the region for years.

“In the end, a kind of triangle of non-state actors emerges, using networks that are closely linked to the Emirates,” says Krieg. “What we are now seeing in Sudan is also an extension of the networks that the Emiratis had built in Libya,” he argues.

Further south, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed also appeared on Friday to deny rumors of alleged deployments by his country’s troops in Fashaga, a fertile border area with Sudan that the two countries have long disputed and that has fueled a cycle of recent violence has years.

Egypt’s backyard

On the other hand, the Egyptian military authorities have a long-standing relationship with Sudan’s military leadership, but their main objective is to maintain security on the southern border. “Egypt sees Sudan as its backyard and what is happening is a matter of national security,” Krieg notes, “but the Egyptian military is very risk-averse.”

“Despite reports of Hafter’s limited military supplies from Libya, Egyptian planes in Sudan and Wagner’s arms bid for FAR, no foreign government has yet taken a position in support of either belligerent, which is a hopeful sign,” believes Gerrit Kurtz, research associate at the German Foundation science and politics. “Outside players have to admit that even with their additional support, neither side can be assured of a quick win,” he adds.

Paralleling fears of foreign intervention in Sudan, there are also concerns about the consequences of further instability in Sudan for the Horn of Africa, where there are already open wounds in countries like Ethiopia, South Sudan and Somalia that have left thousands dead and millions displaced persons.

In the Sahel, the defense ministry reported Monday that the army had disarmed 320 Sudanese soldiers who had crossed its border. And according to the UN refugee agency, between 10,000 and 20,000 civilians from east Darfur have already sought refuge in Chad since the fighting began.

This turbulent regional context also poses an obstacle to finding the most effective way of mediating between the army and the FAR, as no neighboring country or regional body has been able to establish itself as a mediator. “Chad, South Sudan, Eritrea and Ethiopia all have interests and some have preferences between the army and the FAR,” notes Srinivasan.

In addition to possible foreign interference, the future of the fighting in Sudan will also be heavily influenced by what is happening inside the country. So far, some of the fiercest clashes have centered in Khartoum, but they have also spread alarmingly to Darfur.

A prolongation of the conflict in Darfur, the stronghold of the paramilitaries, could also lead to internal conflicts between the two sides. At the top and in the ranks of the army are members linked to the Islamist movement that supported former dictator Omar Al Bashir – who was ousted in 2019 after 30 years in power – with powerful influence over his commander, Abdefata Al Burhan , and the Dagalo refuses. On the other hand, the paramilitaries have never been a cohesive regular force with a strong chain of command, particularly in Darfur, where tribal divisions and rivalry with other chiefs and militiamen also come into play.