Ukrainian military officials say Wagner fighters are being sent to Bakhmut to reinforce their positions, not retreat.
The Ukrainian military has brushed aside claims by the leader of Russia’s Wagner mercenary force that he will withdraw his fighters from the battle for the Ukrainian town of Bakhmut, saying the mercenaries held out and received reinforcements.
Ukraine’s military said Friday Wagner fighters were reinforcing positions in Bakhmut, with likely intentions of capturing the devastated city before Russia marks May 9 the Soviet Union’s victory in World War II.
“We now see how they (fighters) are pulling from the whole offensive line, where the Wagner fighters were, they are pulling (them) towards Bakhmut,” Deputy Defense Minister of Ukraine Hanna Maliar said on Ukrainian television.
In a video statement, Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin said his men had been starved of ammunition by the Russian Defense Ministry and that he would withdraw his men and expected the Russian army to take their place at Bakhmut by May 10.
“Without ammunition, my guys will not suffer needless and unjustified losses in Bakhmut,” Prigozhin said in the video, which accompanied a written statement of withdrawal addressed to the chief of the Russian General Staff, the Defense Ministry and President Vladimir Putin as commander-in-chief.
The announcement said “bureaucrats” had held back deliveries despite knowing that Wagner’s target date for capturing the city was May 9, when Moscow holds its Victory Day Parade.
The battle for Bakhmut, which Russia sees as a stepping stone to other cities in Ukraine’s Donbass region, was the most intense of the war, costing thousands of lives in months of bloody urban fighting on both sides.
Despite Prigozhin’s claims of withdrawal, the Ukrainian military has not seen any signs of an imminent withdrawal of Wagner forces from Bakhmut, representative of Ukraine’s military intelligence service Andriy Chernyak told the RBK-Ukraine news agency.
The Ukrainian military also contradicted Prigozhin’s claim that Russian forces at Bakhmut were short of ammunition.
“Today alone, 520 rounds of artillery of various types were fired in Bakhmut and the surrounding area,” said Ukrainian army spokesman Serhii Cherevatyi.
He said Prigozhin was trying to explain the deaths of his forces, which were more than 100 a day, by a lack of ammunition.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said he was unable to comment on Prigozhin’s threat to withdraw, saying it was a military matter.
Earlier Friday, Prigozhin was pictured surrounded by bodies he said were his Wagner fighters, berating Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov. Prigozhin said Shoigu and Gerasimov must bear responsibility for “tens of thousands of Wagner dead and injured.”
“Smoke and Mirrors”
Months of tirades from Prigozhin have made it clear that his words are rarely taken at face value, military analysts have said.
Prigozhin and his mercenaries are “essential elements of Russian military intelligence, so we don’t believe anything he says,” said Kimberly Marten, a professor at Barnard College and Columbia University who specializes in Russian security issues.
Marten noted that it would be foolhardy for any military commander to “broadcast” his intentions to his enemy five or six days in advance.
“This is all smoke and mirrors, so we’re just guessing,” she said.
Yohann Michel, an analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, said Prigozhin’s testimony looks like an attempt to shift blame for the failure to take Bakhmut and an indication that his capture remained elusive.
Michel also questioned whether Prigozhin had the agency to withdraw without the Kremlin’s permission: “If Putin wants him to go into battle, one way or another he will force him to do so.”
Austrian analyst Gerhard Mangott said that if Prigozhin really withdraws “it would be much too quick for regular Russian forces to take over the positions of Wagner fighters in and around Bakhmut”.
“If he’s really serious … it would give Ukrainian forces an opportunity to capture part or all of Bakhmut from the Russians,” he said, adding it would be catastrophic for Putin and Shoigu.
Shoigu did not immediately respond to Prigozhi, but his ministry reported Friday that he had instructed a top official to ensure a “continuous supply” of all necessary weapons and military equipment for Russian troops.
And as a counterpoint to Prigozhin’s visibility, official video showed Shoigu inspecting tanks and other military equipment destined for Russian troops in Ukraine.
Late last year, the United States estimated Wagner had about 50,000 employees in Ukraine, including 10,000 contractors and 40,000 convicts the company recruited. In February, the US estimated that Wagner had suffered more than 30,000 casualties since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022, with about 9,000 of those fighters killed in action.