Expert Tips Who Will Win the 2023 Kentucky Derby

Expert Tips: Who Will Win the 2023 Kentucky Derby – The New York Times

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The horses of the 149th heat of the Kentucky Derby are listed in order of position, with commentary by Joe Drape and Melissa Hoppert of The New York Times. Morning odds were set by Mike Battaglia of Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, where the race will be held.

Practical Move, Lord Miles and Continuar were scratched on Thursday, allowing Cyclone Mischief, Mandarin Hero and King Russell to enter the race. Skinner was scratched Friday, reducing the field to 19 horses. Most recently, four participants were scratched by the Derby in 2015. Because of the scratches, more than half of the horses in the field break off from post positions that do not match their program numbers.

How to see: Coverage begins Saturday at 12 p.m. Eastern Time on NBC. It will also be available on NBC’s streaming service, Peacock.

Post time: 6:57 p.m

Wallet: $3 million guaranteed

Distance: 1¼ miles

Track record: 1:59⅖ (Secretariat, 1973)

Weight: 126 pounds

Joe Drape’s Win-Place Show Picks: Verify, Reincarnate, Forte

Melissa Hoppert’s tips: Tapit Trice, Forte, Angel of Empire

This is how we see the field:

Trainer: Brad Cox Jockey: man Franco Opportunities: 30-1

Drape: This gray did little wrong but took the #1 spot. If he’s lucky enough to survive being pinched against the railing, he probably isn’t fast enough to win.

Hopper: He had a respectable showing at Aqueduct this year, winning the Withers Stakes there in February and narrowly losing at Wood Memorial last month. But the only time he ran out of money was at Churchill Downs.

Trainer: Brad Cox Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione Opportunities: 15-1

Drape: He’s inconsistent, alternating brilliant breeds with blings. If he is at his best then this stallion has a chance.

Hopper: This fast son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify narrowly lost at the Blue Grass Stakes last month and he will have Gaffalione, who holds nine Churchill equestrian titles, on his back.

Trainer: Larry Rivelli Jockey: Jareth Loveberry Opportunities: 12-1

Drape: A fascinating colt who has raced well in Virginia, Louisiana, Minnesota and Kentucky. This well-travelled species has a great opportunity.

Hopper: He won the Jeff Ruby in March by an impressive five and a half lengths, but that was on a synthetic course. Still, he won on dirt and in Churchill. A question mark, but I’m sure of one thing: His apostrophe is unnecessary.

Trainer: Keith Desormeaux Jockey: James Graham Opportunities: 20-1

Drape: This colt bargained for $25,000 and has fetched nearly $800,000. He loves the slop so if you bet on him pray for rain.

Hopper: He won the Rebel Stakes on a sloppy track in February and hasn’t raced since, raising the possibility of physical problems. But he has won twice at Churchill and caused quite a stir in training.

Trainer: death plecher Jockey: Luis Saez Opportunities: 5-1

Drape: Everything this lumbering colt does is win, even if he misses the start like he did in the Tampa Bay Derby or bounces off other horses like he did in the Blue Grass.

Hopper: This gray son by the productive sire Tapit has won four races in a row. This run includes the Blue Grass where his running style coming from behind really came into its own. He looked like a million bucks in the morning, and that’s a good thing because his owners spent $1.3 million on him.

Trainer: death plecher Jockey: Jose Ortiz Opportunities: 12-1

Drape: Like Mage, Kingsbarns is fast and impressive. But he didn’t race as a 2-year-old, so every race now demands more from him.

Hopper: He has won 3 for 3, including a goal-to-wire win in the Louisiana Derby in March. But only two horses have won the derby without racing with 2, one of them is Justify and he is not Justify.

Trainer: Tim Yakteen Jockey: John Velazquez Opportunities: 50-1

Drape: I have a hunch Reincarnate will run like an old soul and make it big. His career started on grass and it may have taken some time to understand the filly.

Hopper: A freckled gray like his great-grandfather Holy Bull—hence the name—Arkansas Derby third-place finisher Reincarnate has finished no worse than third in all seven of his starts. He will aim for the early lead and Velazquez knows how to win a derby that way.

Trainer: Gustav Delgado Jockey: Javier Castellano Opportunities: 15-1

Drape: He did not race as a 2 year old and lacks the physical and mental foundation. However, he almost beat Forte in the Florida Derby. If you like Forte, you should like him.

Hopper: His name means magician – his father is Good Magic – and while he’s improving despite constant problems breaking through the goal, he’ll need some magic to pull off a win.

Trainer: Steve Assussen Jockey: Joel Rosario Opportunities: 30-1

Drape: He was one of the last qualifiers to score, but this late runner is bred to run long and will overtake horses on the course.

Hopper: He was the runner-up in the Lexington Stakes, the last resort to earn Derby points. There’s a reason only two horses made the Lexington Derby double.

Trainer: Brad Cox Jockey: Florent Geroux Opportunities: 50-1

Drape: This Quality Road son seems to be a bit too deep in the game. But my buddy’s middle son’s name is Jace, and he’s going to send some money from Manhattan.

Hopper: Third-place finisher in the Louisiana Derby, Jace’s Road, will be close to the lead early on, but he’s not fast enough to finish.

Trainer: Kenny McPeek Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr. Opportunities: 30-1

Drape: Like Rich Strike last year, this late runner won once. There is a horseman saying: “Why go to the funeral if you missed the wedding?” It’s best to stay at home.

Hopper: Fourth place Blue Grass finisher adds Turn signals after a few bumpy rides.

Trainer: Brad Cox Jockey: Flavien Prat Opportunities: 8-1

Drape: The Arkansas Derby winner takes money. However, the Pennsylvania-bred stallion has never faced such a deep field. It will take a career effort.

Hopper: There is no doubt that this ever-improving stallion will be the lowest priced of the four Cox horses. He needs a perfect trip to show his strong finishing kick, not an easy task in a field of 20 horses.

Trainer: death plecher Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. Opportunities: 3-1

Drape: He is six out of seven and was the 2 year old champion. This colt is the deserved favorite and if he comes by on Saturday we’ll likely see him at Belmont Park attempting to complete a Triple Crown sweep.

Hopper: He’s won five straight and done absolutely nothing wrong other than winning the Florida Derby by a length and giving bettors an excuse to look elsewhere for value.

Trainer: Ben Colebrook Jockey: Gerardo Corrales Opportunities: 50-1

Drape: Another that will move up a muddy track. He looked like he’d put on skis as he won the Gotham Stakes by seven and a half lengths in wet conditions in New York.

Hopper: He didn’t even hit the board in his last race, the Blue Grass, and he probably has distance limitations. Happen.

Trainer: Hidetaka Otonashi Jockey: Christopher Lemaire Opportunities: 10-1

Drape: I want to like this Japanese challenger, but horses coming out of the UAE derby (like him) are 0 for 18 in the derby. And his post does him no favours.

Hopper: I, for one, am shocked that Drape isn’t jumping on his usual international bandwagon, especially with this strong contender. But he’s making good points, despite the filly’s clash in the United Arab Emirates, where Japan took the top four places.

Trainer: Bill Mott Jockey: Junior Alvarado Opportunities: 50-1

Drape: Like Shirreffs, Mott doesn’t show up with a horse he doesn’t believe in. This colt will do better than his chances.

Hopper: He won the Holy Bull, then was passed by Forte in the Fountain of Youth and didn’t even hit the board in the Arkansas Derby. Mott hopes adding blinkers can do the opposite, but he’s probably too slow to pull off an upset.

Trainer: Dale Romans Jockey: Corey Lanerie Opportunities: 30-1

Drape: This Roman colt will continue to underperform.

Hopper: He finished third in both the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby. A third place at Churchill Downs would be a miracle.

Trainer: Terunobu Fujita Jockey: Kazushi Kimura Opportunities: 20-1

Drape: If you liked Practical Move, then use this one. He almost got past him in the Santa Anita Derby.

Hopper: This is the equally entitled one I’ve been waiting for. It gives the Japanese a second contender and another stellar chance to elevate the race from America’s greatest dirt race to a world race.

Trainer: Ron Mokett Jockey: Rafael Bejarano Opportunities: 50-1

Drape: Late defectors give this late running stallion a ticket to the big show.

Hopper: The 58-1 shot resulted in a second-place finish in the Arkansas Derby. He won’t be so lucky here.