According to the Japanese newspaper Nikkei, NATO would propose opening a liaison office in Tokyo. It was enough to warn the Chinese government, which accuses NATO of “destabilizing the Asia-Pacific region and the rest of the world.”
However, there is no question of NATO accepting new members into its ranks, unless they are European. Article 10 of the North Atlantic Treaty expressly prohibits this. On the other hand, after September 11, 2001, NATO officially gave itself the power to intervene outside of European or North American borders. However, the Chinese government’s rhetoric is worrying because it follows Russia’s. In fact, Russia has used the pretext of NATO expansion into formerly Russian-controlled countries, among other things, to justify its war against Ukraine. Several clues suggest that Moscow’s paranoia is spreading to Beijing.
1. What are the signs of paranoia among Chinese leaders?
In terms of information, China is catching up on itself. On Wednesday, the Chinese government expanded its anti-espionage law, widening the offenses for which foreigners can be arrested in China. Importantly, the Chinese government has significantly restricted access to various economic and political data previously available online. To the point where foreign investors would worry about the lack of essential information about the companies they financed. These new guidelines come on top of the various annoying and threatening measures foreign journalists have been subjected to. The atmosphere of defiance settling in China’s government media is beginning to point to that of the Mao years.
2. Can NATO change the military dynamics in Asia?
NATO’s strength lies in the fact that an attack on one of its members is considered an attack on all. However, if China attacks South Korea, Japan, Taiwan or countries in Southeast Asia, it is far from clear that European countries would go to war. The extent to which the United States would interfere in such a war is itself up for debate. A priori, the opening of a NATO liaison office in Tokyo will not change the military dynamics in Asia. However, NATO has signed strategic partnerships with South Korea, Japan and Australia.
3. Why is China reacting so strongly if the dynamic hasn’t changed?
In 2022, NATO recognized for the first time that China posed a threat to its members’ interests and values in the military, political and economic spheres. According to NATO, China would try, among other things, to undermine the existing international order and divide NATO members among themselves. It would conduct “hybrid or malicious cyber operations”. [une] hostile rhetoric [d]disinformation activities […] undermining the security of the Alliance”.
4. Are Attacks on NATO Part of Chinese Disinformation?
Obviously, China is following the old tactic of believing that attack is the best form of defence. The same tactic used by the Chinese government when it accused Canada of “slander” in the case of the attempted intimidation of a Canadian elected official by a Chinese diplomat.
5. Is there a war against China?
No one wants such a war, but Xi Jinping’s aggressiveness could stir things up.
