The clashes, which are debilitating a country that has already endured two civil wars, have left hundreds dead and hundreds of thousands displaced.
The conflict that broke out on April 15 between the regular army and the paramilitaries of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is destabilizing the whole of Sudan, where a third of the population is already suffering from hunger. According to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (Acled), an NGO that monitors the conflicts, the death toll after three weeks of violence was at least 700. In reality, it could be much higher.
The clashes have further weakened this northeast African state, which has endured two civil wars and a series of internal conflicts, including in Darfur and during South Sudan’s secession in 2011. In 2019, a protest movement had caused the country’s ouster of dictator Omar al-Béchir, after thirty years in power. The army and RSF helped remove it, but these forces then staged a coup d’état. Their recent confrontation brought a new setback to the transition to civilian rule.
Who are the belligerents?
Two men are clashing in Sudan: General Abdel Fattah al-Burhane, chief of the army (and the country), and his number two, Mohamed Hamdane Daglo (known as “Hemedti”, a nickname for Mohamed), the leader of the Rapid Support Forces , is considered one of the richest men in the country.
General Abdel Fattah al-Burhane (left) and the leader of the Rapid Support Forces Mohamed Hamdane Daglo, respectively on October 14, 2019 in Juba (South Sudan) and on March 2, 2022 in Khartoum (Sudan). (AKUOT CHOL, ASHRAF SHAZLY / AFP)
Mohamed Hamdane Daglo, the leader of the FSR, is a former camel trader from Darfur. He was the leader of one of the Janjaweed militias deployed by Omar al-Bashir in the 2000s to put down a rebellion in Darfur. These militias became the Rapid Support Forces. They “come from nomadic tribes impoverished by desertification,” comments Marc Lavergne, research director emeritus at the CNRS and the University of Tours (Indre-et-Loire). These militiamen worked as “border guards: they controlled traffic and enriched themselves by taking money and goods at the crossing”.
He was “a very clever businessman who knew how to use the power of power and make very profitable investments abroad,” adds Roland Marchal, researcher at the CNRS and Sciences Po’s Center for International Research (Ceri). The involvement of members of the FSR in Yemen and the gold mining have particularly enriched it, notes the New York Times*.
Opposite him General Abdel Fattah al-Burhane, Commander-in-Chief of the Army, hails from a village in the Nile Valley and was commander of the armed forces in Darfur. The two men have known each other for a long time, and their troops “have a long history of serious violations of international humanitarian law and human rights,” according to the NGO Human Rights Watch*.
How did they come to power?
The competitors have been working hand in hand for four years. General al-Burhane and Hemedti worked together to overthrow Omar al-Bashir in 2019 after months of popular protests. “Hemedti’s troops arrested el-Bashir,” emphasizes Roland Marchal. Together with the army, they also suppressed demonstrations by civilians.
In the summer of 2019, a power-sharing agreement between civilians and soldiers was reached. Al-Burhane and Hemedti assumed leadership of the Sovereignty Council tasked with overseeing the transition to civilian rule. Two years later, in autumn 2021, they staged a coup and overthrew then Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok. For Roland Marchal, this coup was an expression of the “anger” of the armed forces in the face of accusations by civilian actors, in particular of the military’s economic privileges.
Why are you against it?
The two generals have ruled Sudan since their 2021 coup, but their union was more like a “marriage without love,” a foreign official told the New York Times*.
Their conflict was, among other things, “the result of a disagreement about the integration of paramilitary forces [les FSR] in the army”, explains Marc Lavergne. This measure is an important condition for returning to the democratic transition. In December 2022, an agreement was signed between the political parties and the army to continue this path towards civilian power. But al “Burhane and Hemedti was unable to agree on the terms of this integration.” Wasn’t Hemedti threatening to lose his independence from al-Burhane by accepting the FSR into the armed forces?” The FSR leader also accused the regular army of Islamist infiltration.
In line with the overthrow of al-Bashir in 2019 and the 2021 coup, a power struggle has been fought between the two allies-turned-adversaries.
“Hemedti had until then played a peripheral role in the power of the army. He found himself with some decision-making power and we saw the birth of political ambition. He realized that he had become a prisoner of al-Burhane. “
Roland Marchal, researcher at Ceri and CNRS
at franceinfo
To build his popularity, Hemedti approached civilian actors and developed a discourse to defend “marginalized regions” like Darfur, Roland Marchal continues. He built this image in opposition to the army, which more embodies the Nile Valley regions and the country’s elite.
Tensions between the two men and their camps increased in the weeks leading up to April 15. Signs of an inevitable conflict have emerged. “On the army side, we recruited local militias and distributed weapons to groups hostile to Hemedti” in Darfur, Roland Marchal illustrates. Hemedti’s RSF, in turn, recruited more, and these troops moved closer and closer to the capital, Khartoum – until fighting broke out.
Where are the fights concentrated?
“It started on the morning of Saturday April 15: gunfire, air strikes… The noise was very loud,” said Germain Mwehu, spokesman for the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in Sudan. He was in Al Amarat, near Khartoum airport, when the clashes began. The speaker did not leave his home for a week. “There was a fight for control of the airport… A nearby house was hit by a shell.”
Khartoum and Darfur are on the front lines, but fighting has spread to other cities in the north and south. In the first week, “two-thirds of the fighting (…) took place in cities with more than 100,000 inhabitants,” notes the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project*. According to this source, as of April 24, the heaviest fighting was taking place in Khartoum and its twin city of Omdurman, as well as in El Obeid and the Darfur region.
Map showing the main fighting in Sudan between April 15 and 24, 2023. (ASTRID AMADIEU / FRANCEINFO)
The army used airstrikes on the FSR, but “they strike a little indiscriminately and the civilians are the victims,” notes Marc Lavergne. “Both warring parties repeatedly used explosive weapons in urban areas, causing loss of civilian life,” reports Human Rights Watch.
In certain combat zones, “FSR members turn into looters,” describes Marc Lavergne. They confiscate buildings, schools, shops or health centers. Humanitarian offices and warehouses were robbed. Homes and markets were set on fire in Darfur. In El Fasher (North Darfur), “we counted 55 dead from their injuries in our hospital,” said Jérôme Tubiana, MSF’s operations adviser, in early May.
What is the situation for civilians in combat zones?
According to the UN*, “Essential goods are becoming scarce, especially in Khartoum (…). Vulnerable people cannot leave the hardest-hit areas because transportation costs have risen exponentially.” The family of Mohamed Osman, Sudan researcher for Human Rights Watch, fled the capital in late April. It tells of their constant fear of being bombed and the fighting that raged as they fled. Before leaving, “people sometimes have to wait for days to find someone willing to risk their life to get water and food.”
“In the beginning there was no electricity. Shops stayed open for a few hours, people rushed to get essentials.
Mohamed Osman, researcher at Human Rights Watch
at franceinfo
Another difficulty: the state of the health infrastructure. According to the Sudan Doctors Union*, as of April 30, 70% of hospitals in or near combat zones were down. According to Jérôme Tubiana, three of the four hospitals in El Fasher “have ceased operations since the beginning of the conflict and some have been looted”. “The most urgent need is access to medical care for the wounded and sick,” adds Germain Mwehu. Medicines and medical equipment are running out, hospitals are understaffed.” In addition, there is a lack of water and electricity in the health centers.
What population displacements has this conflict caused?
According to the International Organization for Migration* (IOM), the fighting in early May had already displaced more than 334,000 people within Sudan. There are many IDPs in the states of West Darfur, South Darfur, North Darfur and even Khartoum. In Wad Madani, 120 km south of the capital, an ICRC team is helping “a large number of displaced people,” reports Germain Mwehu. “Exiles sleep outside, families can no longer take them in.”
Sudanese refugees in Koufroun (Chad) gather to receive food, April 30, 2023. (GUEIPEUR DENIS SASSOU / AFP)
According to the High Commissioner for Refugees*, more than 100,000 people have fled Sudan to neighboring countries in less than three weeks. Around 30,000 people arrived in Chad in early May*. More than 40,000 refugees had also crossed the border into Egypt. Germain Mwehu notes that the situation in the border areas of Chad, the Central African Republic (CAR) and South Sudan is particularly critical.
“There is not enough water, not enough food. In Birao (ZAR), the well built by the ICRC is not enough, people have to drink water from the river.”
Germain Mwehu, ICRC spokesman in Sudan
at franceinfo
At the same time, evacuations of diplomats and foreigners were organized at the end of April.
How are the negotiations going?
Since the outbreak of hostilities, calls for a ceasefire have multiplied. Several ceasefires have been announced, but “so far they have only been partially respected,” Jérôme Tubiana noted in early May. A prolonged ceasefire between May 4 and 11 was announced by South Sudan, one of several brokers pushing for a ceasefire.
In this conflict, “a multitude of local and international actors have positioned themselves as mediators,” continues the MSF adviser. However, some, notably the United States and Saudi Arabia, seem to have more influence than others and more neutrality. The United States and Saudi Arabia are part of the “Quad,” a group of mediating states that includes the United Kingdom and the United Arab Emirates. The International Crisis Group* recalls that these countries worked to organize talks between the army and civilian actors in Sudan. Another actor in the negotiations is the “Trilateral Mechanism”, established in 2022 to mediate the Sudanese transition. It includes the UN, the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, an organization of East African countries.
Is there a risk of destabilizing the region?
As noted by Le Monde (article reserved for subscribers), ministers and heads of state from neighboring countries have also attempted to act as mediators. Because Sudan, which shares its borders with seven countries, is “at the crossroads of a wide range of interests and aspirations on the part of regional actors,” the Abendzeitung notes. Cameron Hudson, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told the newspaper that “there is real potential for regional destabilization as the conflict intensifies.”
In Foreign Policy*, researcher Folahanmi Aina fears “a proliferation of small arms” and the risk of them “falling into the wrong hands” such as “extremists” because of the fighting. Another concern is that the Wagner Group will gain influence if it already has a presence in the Central African Republic and Mali. The Russian paramilitary group fighting in Ukraine is present in Darfur to mine gold and has established contacts with the two belligerent camps, Le Monde notes (article reserved for subscribers).
I didn’t have time to read everything, can you give me a summary?
On April 15, fierce fighting broke out in Sudan between the army and paramilitaries of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Behind these forces, two leaders clash: General Abdel Fattah al-Burhane, who heads the army and the country, and his deputy, Mohamed Hamdane Daglo, head of the FSR. The confrontation between al-Burhane and Daglo is, among other things, the result of a power struggle and a disagreement over the integration of the FSR into the army.
The clashes left hundreds dead and displaced hundreds of thousands of people. Residents in the combat zones (mainly towards the capital Khartoum and in Darfur) face looting, shortages of medicine and difficulties in accessing water and food. Many health centers are closed.
* Links with an asterisk direct to English language pages.