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It took Moscow 12 hours to respond after an explosion lit the dome of the Kremlin complex last Wednesday.
According to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov, the security services needed time to investigate the incident.
But no doubt the Kremlin’s crackpots have been working overtime, too.
On the eve of Victory Day – which traditionally celebrates the Soviet triumph over Nazi Germany but has become emblematic of Russia’s current war against Ukraine – the Kremlin’s line at home is that the country is fighting an enemy as powerful as it is evil.
This tale is intended to explain the lack of success at the front after 14 months of fighting, while at the same time giving Russians a sense of security that life will go on as usual for them.
But a series of mysterious incidents – including the early morning blast – are revealing cracks in Russia’s facade of strength. The cancellation of some Victory Day celebrations is another sign that appearances are beginning to fade.
The Kremlin finally described the 2 a.m. incursion of two drones into the heavily protected Moscow compound as an attempt by the “Kiev regime” to assassinate President Putin. That was in a statement Wednesday afternoon, which also claimed the right to respond “where and when it sees fit.” Putin was not in the complex at the time. A day later, Moscow added the United States to the charge of blame for the explosion.
“We know very well that decisions about such actions, such terrorist attacks, are not made in Kiev, but in Washington,” Peskov said on Thursday.
Both Kiev and Washington vehemently deny any involvement.
downplay
Wednesday’s drone strike was the latest in a string of unexplained incidents on Russian soil in recent months, including a car bomb attack on an ultranationalist writer on Saturday – the third target by pro-war advocates since the invasion began, which killed two people. There have also been a number of downed drones, derailments of freight trains and at least two fires at fuel depots in Crimea.
In total In these cases, the Kremlin downplayed the news or kept its distance.
The Kremlin is one of the most protected places in Russia and it was widely believed that its air defenses were nearly impossible to breach | Kirill Kudryavtsev/AFP via Getty Images
The Kremlin is one of the most protected places in Russia and it was widely believed that its air defenses were nearly impossible to breach | Kirill Kudryavtsev/AFP via Getty ImagesThe fact that this time he decided to release an official statement and point the finger at the US, its main enemy, suggests that the Kremlin wants people to take notice. But with what effect?
Predictably, the Kremlin’s main mouthpieces have been crying out for revenge. Former Russian President and current Security Council Chairman Dmitry Medvedev has called for the “physical elimination” of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
“Maybe things are really getting started now?” wrote Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief of the Russian state-controlled broadcaster RT.
But apart from the usual jingoistic saber-rattling, Russia’s main evening news programs failed to air the scenes of the drone blast.
And yet more questions than answers remain.
The Kremlin is one of the best-protected places in Russia and it was widely believed that its air defenses were nearly impossible to breach. In addition, as is well known, Putin spends most of his time in other places.
This has fueled speculation that the drone strike was actually a false flag operation orchestrated by one of Russia’s own security services.
Possible motives could be an internal power struggle – as much as the security services are seen as monoliths, they are notoriously divided in fact – or an attempt to dissuade the West from further arms sales to Ukraine, since the arms were allegedly used in strikes on Russian ones Territory.
symbolic space
But an attack on the heart of power comes at a high symbolic, if not physical, cost. In the domed Kremlin Senate, Putin hosted the historic meeting with his security advisers that preceded the start of his all-out invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Its symbolism is undeniable.
Regardless of who is behind the invasion, it is less likely to create a rally-around-the-flag effect than to raise eyebrows at the Kremlin’s own defense system.
The most important military parade in Moscow is still going on – broadcast live by Russian state television – | Olga Maltseva/AFP via Getty Images
The most important military parade in Moscow is still going on – broadcast live by Russian state television – | Olga Maltseva/AFP via Getty ImagesComparisons are made when 19-year-old German Mathias Rust landed a Cessna near the Kremlin during the Cold War. The fact that he could fly across the border unmolested was a severe humiliation for Mikhail Gorbachev. As a result, heads rolled under his defensive staff.
The timing of last week’s incident doesn’t help either, as it is just before the country staged its usual demonstration of military prowess for Victory Day on May 9th.
Even before the strike on Wednesday, the situation was tense. Avoiding the banned word “war,” dozens of Russian cities have canceled their military parades to “not provoke the enemy.” The Immortal Regiment, a hugely popular procession of people carrying photos of their relatives who fought in World War II, has been cancelled. Some places have even stopped their fireworks shows.
On the one hand, such changes could convey the message on a key national holiday that the Russians are at war with what the Kremlin calls “terrorists.” But the knife cuts both ways.
“In the current context, the cancellation of the parades is taken as another sign that things are going very badly,” Abbas Gallyamov, a former Kremlin speechwriter-turned-analyst, told outlet Echo Moskvy.
While avoiding mass gatherings in towns near the Russia-Ukraine border might seem like a logical precaution, it’s less obvious for Siberia thousands of miles away.
Speech in Red Square
Some wonder aloud if some cities simply lack the military equipment for a parade. Or whether they want to prevent people from taking to the streets with photos of their relatives who died in Ukraine and thus portraying Russia’s war dead.
The most important military parade in Moscow is still running – broadcast live by Russian state television. But the tension in the capital is palpable.
Red Square has been closed to the public for two weeks, streets are barricaded.
After Wednesday’s incident, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin immediately banned the use of drones, and dozens of other regions have since followed suit. Days earlier, Muscovites had had problems with their GPS signals.
Much will depend on Putin. His annual victory speech in Red Square is one of the few moments when his whereabouts are known in advance.
Following Wednesday’s security breach, some are wondering if he might reconsider.
But the optics of his absence would not be good, and the chances are slim that the Kremlin would risk the psychological consequences.
And yet the question of whether it is safe enough for the president to appear publicly in central Moscow speaks louder than the noise of 10,000 men marching in Red Square.