The biggest drawing lottery in almost a decade is here, and tonight we find out who will be the top pick for Connor Bedard. It’s a top-heavy draft, meaning ordering early is even more important than it is most years. And with so many teams accidentally all awful at the same time, those ping-pong ball bounces will be a defining moment for multiple franchises.
The actual odds can be found here, but we’re happy to dig a little deeper. It’s time for the annual Draft Lottery Power Leaderboard, where we find out what outcomes would lead to mayhem, conspiracies, and comedy. The very first edition of this ranking came in 2015 when another Connor was the grand prize. Let’s just say one was very funny until it wasn’t anymore. How will this year end? We’ll find out in a few hours, but now let’s get to the leaderboards.
The Maximum Mayhem Leaderboard
If there’s one team that every true fan cheers for, it’s (checks notes) whoever plays the Leafs. But if there are two, then the other team is chaos.
Not ranked: Columbus Blue Jackets — After years of hype, Bedard joins a team that few hate? lame.
5. Ottawa Senators — The Coyotes own their selection from Jakob Chychrun’s trade. It would be fun if Ottawa moved all the way up to second place and we all had to think Arizona had raided for a moment before remembering that the top-five pick is protected.
4.Detroit Red Wings — Detroit wins a draft lottery? Her fans would be so confused.
3. Montreal Canadiens — Her fan reactions in last year’s draft were absolutely phenomenal. Granted, that was in Montreal. Would the whole Nashville fandom show up? For Connor Bedard maybe.
2. The 1001st number – Aaron Portzline has addressed the complicated process behind the lottery, which doesn’t work the way most fans think it does. There are no ping-pong balls with team logos, but 14 numbers that add up to 1,001 possible combinations, 1,000 of which are associated with teams. What happens if that one unused number wins? Not really; they would just repeat it. But it would still be fun to imagine a room full of team members frantically going through their lists until realizing none of them had them.
1. Pittsburgh penguins — They couldn’t go all the way up to number one, but they could come within reach for one of the elite players. Considering they’ve had Mario Lemieux, Jaromir Jagr or Sidney Crosby for four decades, it goes without saying that if the three percent quota got through and this happened, people would absolutely go insane.
Continue reading: What’s at stake in the 2023 NHL Draft Lottery as Connor Bedard is up for grabs?
The “Who Deserves This?” Leaderboards
As always, “deserved” feels like the wrong word when teams are trying to lose. Our writers dealt with this question over the weekend, but my answers are the right ones.
Unranked: Chicago Blackhawks — They tanked openly, about as shamelessly as any team we’ve seen, and they still haven’t finished last. The lottery loves to reward refueling and it loves to reward failure, but failed refueling? No thank you.
5. Sharks of San Jose – They never picked first, although it feels like 15 years of Joe Thornton should count a little. Still, they got second picks three times, and two of them became Pat Falloon and Andrei Zyuzin, so they must be lucky.
4. St. Louis Blues – They’ve been at it for 56 years and only had first pick once – and they used that to put Erik Johnson ahead of Jonathan Toews, Nicklas Backstrom or Phil Kessel. That being said, they haven’t finished in the top three since the late ’70s.
3. Anaheim Ducks — Many fans insist that the sole purpose of the draft is to help the worst teams, and the Ducks were the worst team. Did they refuel? Maybe, but at least they were a little more subtle than some teams we might mention.
2. Columbus blue jackets — They didn’t fill up, and in fact they thought they would be good this year. They weren’t, and they desperately need good news. The fanbase was loyal, although they never had much to cheer about. And they’ve had first pick only once in franchise history — and that was in 2002 for a smashing draft that turned out to be just one Hall of Famer.
1.Detroit Red Wings — They’ve been bad for years and are just the kind of team that badly needs a franchise player to build around. But they didn’t tank this year, at least until the end. And they’ve never won a lottery, picked first place since 1986, or picked one of the top three since 1990.
The Question “Who Needs It Most?” Rankings
Everyone wants first pick, but some teams need it more than others.
Unclassified: Arizona Coyotes – Bedard wouldn’t get as much ice time playing as Auston Matthews’ second-line center. (But seriously, I can’t think of a team that doesn’t absolutely need a win tonight.)
5. Chicago Blackhawks — OK, maybe “need” feels like a strong word for a big market team that has already won three trophies. But Kyle Davidson has done everything this year but lace up his skates and shoot pucks in his own net, and if that all adds up to the fifth pick… yikes.
4. St. Louis Blues — Their potential pipeline is the weakest of any lottery team, though they’ve done an impressive job of loading the picks by deadline. If a conversion is pending, it could be a long road. Or they could win the lottery and fast-forward years.
3. Sharks of San Jose – Most of what we just said about the Blues also applies to the Sharks, with the added burden of being tied to a bunch of bad contracts for years to come. They still have some solid players but nothing close to stardom, either in the roster or along the way.
2. Columbus blue jackets – A year ago we might have argued that winning the lottery was the only way the little Blue Jackets could ever win a superstar, but apparently Johnny Gaudreau missed that memo. Still, this is a team that’s basically never had sustained success, and they’ve just found that they’re a lot further from it than they’d hoped. Bedard would change everything.
Johnny Gaudreau and the Philadelphia Flyers. (Eric Hartline / USA Today)
1. Philadelphia Flyer — They’ve spent the past few years denying how badly they needed to start over. They say that’s no longer the case, but after seeing their team meet the deadline, Flyers fans may prefer a show rather than a tell-all. Landing Berard or Adam Fantilli would be the kind of future system shock that even the Comcast suits couldn’t ignore… maybe.
The question “Which team could trade down?” Leaderboards
Every year I like to get creative and try to think of scenarios where a team could fall from the top.
Unrated: All. Sorry folks, this is one of my favorite sections of every year, but there’s a difference between being creative and being stupid. A generation ago that would have been in play, but today? No active GM would ever dare to trade Connor Bedard’s choice.
The What’s Best for Connor Bedard? Leaderboards
Last year we thought this section was about Shane Wright and I put Seattle at number one and wrote that “the Kraken would provide a lot of playing time”. Never listen to anything I say about anything.
Unranked: Philadelphia Flyers – “BOOOOOOO! YOU SUCK KID! BOOOOOOO!” But enough of what John Tortorella would say.
5. Anaheim Ducks — They always rank well in this section, with some fun bits already in place and a low-pressure market that still remembers what a Stanley Cup tastes like. However, we don’t know who the coach will be.
4.Detroit Red Wings — The pieces are coming together, it’s a great hockey market, and Steve Yzerman might be able to tell him a thing or two about being a superstar center in this league. That’s exactly what I wrote for the Wings last year, but nothing has changed. Well, maybe the part about putting the pieces together.
3. Montreal Canadiens – It’s a rabid hockey market that already has some nice young plays on offer and he would learn under Martin St. Louis. And while the fans can be tough, they absolutely love French players. (That’s right, Connor, you’re French now. It’s pronounced “bay-dahr”. Just join in.)
2. Chicago Blackhawks — There will be big shoes to fill in the post-Kane and Toews era. But the Hawks are a huge market and the NHL loves to inflate their tires; If Bedard’s goal is to be a big star both on and off the ice, this is probably the best landing spot available.
1. Vancouver Canucks — I hesitate here because the franchise feels like a mess from top to bottom these days. But the squad is better than most teams on this list, it wouldn’t need to be number one straight away because of Elias Pettersson, and it’s his hometown team he grew up with (and apparently still does).
The Unintentional Comedy Ranking
Not ranked: Pittsburgh Penguins — Nobody would laugh, intentionally or not.
5. Arizona coyotes – Conspiracy theories and Mullett jokes aside, the Coyotes are the only one of Taylor Hall’s five teams (and counting) eligible to win the top pick. If it happened, we could keep making Taylor Hall lottery jokes because of the transitive property. And he could too.
4. Vancouver Canucks – Just because you know they would do a lap of honor in an instant because it would all be part of their grand plan that the rest of us were just too stupid to understand.
3. Montreal Canadiens – They win the second lottery, move up to 2nd place, draft Fantilli, he goes back to college for his sophomore year, the Habs don’t get immediate help and are bad again next year, and then they win the lottery for only the top Election 2024 to become the first victim of the “cannot win more than twice” rule.
2. Edmonton oiler — For the record, I’m not saying the league should announce they’ve won the first pick again just to mess with us. But I’m not saying it either.
1.Nashville Predators/Calgary Flames – In a top-loaded draft that some pundits believe could have up to four slam-dunk franchise players, seeing the longest of the long shots win, only to drop to five, would be the most disappointing result ever or six to ascend.
The Get Your Tinfoil Hut Leaderboard
The league would rig a draft lottery for a generational franchise player, right? (Ignores Connor McDavid, who humbly raises his hand in the back row.) Of course they would, let’s find out how they’re going to do it.
Not ranked: Columbus Blue Jackets — It’ll be so funny when they win and Bettman has to pretend he’s happy for them.
5. Washington Capitals — Oh look, the winger, whose quest for the all-time goal-scoring game is set to be the biggest story in the hockey world in a couple of years, but could lose his longtime playmaker center to injury, gets a cleat replacement just in time to make sure he’s the Finish line reached, what a coincidence…
4. Montreal Canadiens – Oh look, the largest Canadian market in the lottery lands first pick for the second year running, remind me again what massive national TV deal is next to have to be renegotiated, what a coincidence…
3. Ottawa Senators – Oh, look, the team, set to be sold in a transaction that will set the bar for franchise values across the league, is defying the odds to move up ten spots and snag Fantilli, a superstar who’s their Price could increase, what a coincidence…
2. Chicago Blackhawks – Oh look, the only team anyone in the NHL’s marketing department has ever heard of lands a superstar just as their two longtime franchise players are ready to move on, what a coincidence…
1. Arizona coyotes – Oh look, the team that’s been struggling to survive for two decades and that Gary Bettman keeps supporting against all odds finally gets a superstar to build around just ahead of the arena funding vote that will define its future , what… you know what, all jokes aside, this one is going to be pretty dodgy.
(Photo above: Larry MacDougal / Associated Press)