Text: Cuba News 360 letter
The United Nations (UN) has warned that there is a high probability of an El Niño weather phenomenon occurring this year, which could significantly increase temperatures and set new heat records.
As reported by EFE, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported that there is a 60% chance that El Niño will occur before the end of July and an 80% chance that it will occur before the end of September.
This natural weather phenomenon occurs every two to seven years and typically lasts between nine and twelve months. It is associated with rising sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific and increased drought in some parts of the world and heavy rainfall in others.
The last El Niño event occurred in 2018-2019 and resulted in a particularly long La Niña period causing repercussions and notably a drop in temperatures.
But despite the fact that La Niña has this moderating effect, the last eight years have been the hottest on record.
For his part, Petteri Taalas, Secretary General of the WMO, stated that “the development of El Niño will very likely lead to a new peak in global warming”, which is not yet possible to predict the intensity or duration of the meteorological phenomenon.
El Niño’s impact on temperatures is usually noticed the year after the phenomenon, meaning its impact could likely be felt in 2024, which is why the WMO has called for early warning systems to be installed to protect the most vulnerable populations .
El Niño generally causes increased rainfall in parts of South America, the United States, the Horn of Africa and Central Asia, and severe droughts in Australia, Indonesia and parts of South Asia.
Even in the boreal summer, surface water warming caused by El Niño can lead to cyclones in the central and eastern Pacific.
As a specialized organization of the United Nations, the WMO has the task of coordinating international efforts in the observation, analysis and forecasting of meteorology and climate.
In addition, the WMO is responsible for providing information and advice to governments and other international organizations regarding climate variability and change and related weather and climate risks.