The Warriors lost a wild Game 4 on Monday and are now 3-1 behind the Lakers in their second round. Throughout NBA history, 95% of teams that lose 3-1 lose the series. It’s a horrible situation to find yourself in. And the Warriors are there for a reason.
Because Steve Kerr put them there.
Kerr has accomplished incredible, historic things with Golden State, uncovering an outdated, matchup-obsessed offense that Mark Jackson has been busy choking on en route to four championships and six NBA Finals appearances. It’s hard to beat a guy who’s been this successful.
However, there is no other way to explain their current unfortunate situation. Kerr hates, literally hates pick and roll with the greatest pick and roll player in history. And whatever. That’s fine. There’s a lot to be said for the off-ball movement and Golden State’s commitment to a diverse and inclusive offense. But there is a time and a place to ditch the cute stuff and get down to brass tacks. Put the ball in Stephen Curry’s hands. Stop making this so complicated.
It took Kerr until Game 7 against Sacramento to commit to this admittedly insane strategy of running the offense through one of the best offensive players the game has ever seen, and Curry scored 50 points. So what did Kerr do with his next opportunity? He moved Curry right off the ball in Game 1 against the Lakers.
Until an emergency came up. That’s when Kerr backs down. If he needs 33 second-half points from Curry in the 2019 conference semifinals against Houston after willingly playing the entire first half straight into the Rockets’ off-ball switching hands. Curry scored nine straight points in the fourth quarter against LA in Game 1 when Kerr finally drew his Superstar card, but it was too late.
Kerr called it an emotional game. No. It was a giveaway. In a minor episode. An NBA coach shouldn’t have to lose a playoff game to learn the glaringly obvious lesson that the Warriors have one mission this series: pull Anthony Davis off the defensive color. The best way to do this is to pick-and-roll with Curry with Davis’ husband as the screener. It’s not brain surgery. The Warriors made it in Game 2, and it’s no coincidence that they rolled to a win.
In Game 3, the Lakers made what appeared to be a masterful adjustment, switching Davis from Draymond Green, the Warriors’ preferred pick with Curry, to JaMychal Green. Kerr immediately backed off from involving Davis in pick-and-rolls, I think because he didn’t trust JaMychal Green with 4-on-3 playmaking duties.
That was and is a total overthink job. The blueprint was there. Put the ball in Curry’s hands and make whoever Davis is guarding the screener. From there everything flows downstream. The result? Simple buckets. We’ve seen it work time and time again, and it worked again in Game 4.
These figures, which I will quote in a moment, are from Haralabos Voulgaris, who served as the director of quantitative research and development for the Dallas Mavericks. Before I get to them, let’s thank Kerr for putting Gary Payton II on the starting lineup. He knew Davis would be assigned Payton, and he trusted Payton as a curry pick partner and backside playmaker.
So in the first half, the Warriors used Davis in 24 screen actions and scored 1.35 points per chance that came directly from that action. By all accounts, this would be the most efficient pick-and-roll offense, including passing, for any player in the league this season, according to Synergy. Golden State had a big day with Davis being lifted out of the paint and everyone else struggling to spin. Pointless layups. Wide open 3s. fish in a barrel.
After all that success, what did Kerr do in the second half? He reduced Davis pick-and-roll actions by 75 percent. Only went six times. The Warriors scored 17 points in the fourth quarter. And lost the game.
Well, if you’re a Kerr apologist, I suspect you’ll argue that the Lakers rigged this matchup chess game when they switched Davis from Payton to Andrew Wiggins just like they allegedly did in Game 3 when Darvin Ham switched Davis from one green to the other.
Absolutely not. Just like I said about Game 3, this is a rethink of the whole thing. It’s not brain surgery. Put Davis into action. Period. I don’t care who the screener is. Wiggins, working in a 4-for-3 advantage, doesn’t compare to the quarterback on the damn West Coast offense.
And besides, the Lakers didn’t even blitz Curry. Chances are Curry would be able to come down the hill himself — as he did when the Warriors finally got back to that action with just over a minute left in the game. And what do you know, it led to a layup.
(Make sure your volume is up and listen to the entire video so you can hear Stan Van Gundy talk about how even he, a former NBA finals coach, is baffled as to why Kerr is suddenly out of the best deviates game in his book in the second half of a desperate playoff game.)
I’m with you Stan I am absolutely at a loss for words. Kerr has been hailed over the years as not too far from a genius, but this is basic basketball stuff. Hell, they’re basic things in life. If something isn’t broken, don’t fix it. Kerr always kept the curry card in his back pocket, and it’s enabled him to get away with stuff like this on numerous occasions.
But you can only tempt fate so many times. The Warriors don’t have the leeway they used to. Your margin for winning playoff games is already tiny. You can no longer just conjure up insults out of thin air. When they find something that works, they have to ride it like normal teams have always had to. Kerr absolutely hates doing this. He just can’t bring himself to do the same thing over and over again. Either that, or he can’t see what pretty much every other pair of basketball eyes in the world can see. And I doubt it’s the latter.
So here are the Warriors, down 3-1 when they should be at least tied 2-2 if not 3-1 after voluntarily knocking Curry off the ball for basically the whole Game 1. Am I not going to say they’re out. They have a proven formula. If Kerr can bring himself to actually stick around for a full game, this streak can still go the distance. But I’m not holding my breath.