ESPN May 18, 2023 09:00 ET15 minutes read
Burley: That was Man City’s best performance under Guardiola
ESPN FC’s side react to Manchester City’s comfortable 4-0 win over Real Madrid in the Champions League semifinals at the Etihad.
From the 78 teams that have met in the qualifying, group and knockout stages of the 2022-23 Champions League, we now have our two finalists: Manchester City meet Inter Milan on 10 June.
Reigning Premier League champions City took a big step towards becoming European champions by beating Real Madrid 5-1 on aggregate in a comfortable 4-0 win on Wednesday. This result was also a big sign of their quest to become only the second English club, after Manchester United in 1999, to win the treble (domestic league, domestic cup, Champions League).
Inter, meanwhile, made their mark by beating local rivals AC Milan 1-0 on Tuesday, winning the semi-finals 3-0 on aggregate and reaching their first Champions League final since 2010, when they lifted the trophy for the third time Height lifted part of their own heights.
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But who will win in Istanbul in three and a half weeks? Will City redeem their defeat in the final two years ago and finally become European champions, or will Inter surpass all odds and claim the continental crown for the fourth time in their history?
We asked ESPN writers Gab Marcotti, Mark Ogden, Julien Laurens and Rob Dawson for their initial thoughts before the finals and their predictions of which team will win it all.
Ogden: Man City completely tore Real Madrid apart
Mark Ogden reacts to Manchester City’s sensational 4-0 win over Real Madrid in the Champions League semifinals.
Who has been your player of the tournament so far and why?
Marcotti: Erling Haaland. A reluctant decision because, frankly, City would probably still be in the final if he weren’t there. But that also applies to all other city people. This is a team built on the collective. So when an outstanding player isn’t performing, others have to step in. In fact, Inter are also heavily based on the collective, it’s just pound for pound they have less quality.
I know Haaland didn’t do much at the Bernabeu and probably missed a hat-trick of chances in the second leg at the Etihad. But he’s the Champions League’s top scorer with 12 goals (for the second time in his young career) and he’s really different from what City would otherwise offer and giving them another dimension. I don’t have strong feelings about this, but if you make me choose, I will choose him. Nobody at City is irreplaceable (except perhaps manager Pep Guardiola) but Haaland – and midfielder Rodri – are less replaceable than any other lad.
Ogden: Kevin De Bruyne, let’s put the stats aside and focus on a player who means more to his team than mere numbers. De Bruyne is the heartbeat of Guardiola’s Manchester City side and has produced pivotal moments to lead his side to the final. His goal in the semi-final first leg against Real Madrid matched City’s level and ensured a 1-1 draw at the Bernabeu. That was the basis of a 4-0 thrashing of the second leg at the Etihad, in which De Bruyne set the ball rolling for the hosts with a pass that opened the scoring for Bernardo Silva.
While goalscorers tend to win the biggest games, success builds in midfield and this has always been a common thread to Champions League success. From Roy Keane guiding Manchester United to the 1999 final (which he missed due to suspension), to Steven Gerrard inspiring Liverpool to glory in 2005, to Luka Modric (Real Madrid) and Xavi (Barcelona) on more than one occasion for their teams, the Champions League are won by dominant midfielders. De Bruyne is the man for Manchester City and he’s peaking in this season’s competition at just the right time.
Laurens: John Stones. Watching him play as a hybrid centre-back and central midfielder against Bayern Munich and Real Madrid is just amazing. What Guardiola did to him, how he changed his game, is wonderful. Of course he still loses the ball every now and then and his touch can be a bit sluggish but he brings so much to this team. It covers so many areas and is a weapon the opponents haven’t been able to master yet. With Stones in this new role, City are a better team.
Dawson: Ruben Dias. City have always scored in knockout games in the Champions League but the difference this year is how well they defended. They have conceded just three goals in six knockout games this season while keeping clean sheets at home against RB Leipzig, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid. Dias doesn’t get the attention that John Stones does because he’s not the one pushing into midfield with the ball at his feet, but he’s the glue that holds it all together. He’s quick, strong, good on the ball and physical when he needs to be and he excelled at the end of this season’s Champions League. In two games against Karim Benzema, the French striker – who won the Ballon d’Or last year for guiding Madrid past top opponents like City and winning the Champions League – barely got a chance to score.
How will Inter’s attack line up in the UCL final against Man City?
Alejandro Moreno and Craig Burley explain why Simone Inzaghi should start Lautaro Martinez and Edin Dzeko in UCL Finals
Which duel do you think will be decisive in the final and why?
Ogden: This isn’t really a clash but rather a dilemma City will have to resolve if Inter coach Simone Inzaghi continues with his two top players Lautaro Martinez and either Edin Dzeko or Romelu Lukaku. It’s a rarity in the modern game for a top team to operate with two direct forwards and it will be another challenge for City’s defenders to overcome. They’ll be used to one cover and one reserve, but Inter won’t give them that luxury if Inzaghi sticks to his preferred approach. He could choose to be more pragmatic, playing with a forward and occupying midfield, but that seems unlikely so it will be interesting to see how Guardiola handles the threat and which defenders he chooses as centre-backs. They will have to deal with Martinez’ mobility and agility and the more physical threat of former City striker Dzeko or Lukaku, so Guardiola’s selection will be crucial.
Laurens: We will have a lot of great duels in the final, but the best story will be Francesco Acerbi against Haaland. Inter centre-back Acerbi is 35 and his career is behind him. No one expected him to reach such a level and play in a Champions League final even before he underwent chemotherapy for testicular cancer in 2014. And yet here he is preparing for Haaland, a goalscoring phenomenon 13 years his junior, who will want to make up for his failures against Real Madrid. Acerbi will be physically like Antonio Rudiger, but also smart like David Alaba. The Inter five chain will be a challenge for Haaland; Whoever wins this fight will win the game.
Dawson: The decisive duel could end up being between Pep Guardiola and his own mind. He joked ahead of the semi-final second leg against Real Madrid that he would not “reconsider” his tactical plan, having been accused of doing just that in major Champions League clashes in the past. City fans will still remember that he inexplicably started the 2021 Champions League final against Chelsea without a defensive midfielder, and many of the fans traveling to Istanbul will remain unsure of their chances until they see the squad list have seen. Very few Inter players would make it into a combined XI, showing City are the better side man to man on paper. There’s no reason for Guardiola to deviate too much from the team that beat Real Madrid, but there was also no reason to make such a big change for the Chelsea defeat.
Marcotti: City vs. Inter in alternation. We know that the script for the final calls for City to have most of the ball. And we know that the longer they play in Inter’s half, the more likely they are to create chances and ultimately score. That’s why it’s crucial that when Inter turns the ball over, they manage to keep the ball for at least a couple of minutes or find the ‘out ball’ to Lautaro or Lukaku. City did a fantastic job against Real Madrid who have better passers to break the press and a better target for them than Inter in Vinicius Junior. If they do it again in Istanbul, it won’t be a big game. But if Inter manage to defuse the pressing by keeping the ball or extending it with long passes and forcing City to tactically foul if they manage to slow down the pace of the game then that could be the key to success. One of the few keys maybe, but a key nonetheless.
Guardiola promises not to overthink his tactics against Real Madrid
Pep Guardiola speaks before Man City’s Champions League semi-final second leg against Real Madrid.
Give us one good reason Inter can beat City in the final against all odds
Laurens: I expect Inter City to cause problems, using the same coaches La Grande Inter used to win back-to-back European Cups under Helenio Herrera in the 1960s. By that I mean slowing down the game, being hard to break through, playing quite deep and being aggressive. Set pieces could be crucial and the form of players like Martinez and Nicolo Barella and what Lukaku can bring could be crucial for Inter. Tactically, Inzaghi has been outstanding in the Champions League this season and I expect him to come up with a tactical plan that Pep can hardly fight. The only way this Inter side can win the final is through a tactical masterstroke like Chelsea did under Thomas Tuchel in 2021. There are similarities between this Chelsea and this Inter, so the Italians could repeat the trick.
Dawson: It’s a one-time game. City would be far too strong in a two-legged game, but anything can happen over 90 minutes (and possibly another 30 minutes of overtime and a penalty shoot-out after that). City started the 2021 final against Chelsea as favorites but were beaten 1-0 in a close game and that gives Inter hope they can pull off something similar. The build-up is dominated by City and there is talk of a possible treble, but Inter have some very good players. It’s easy to forget that they prevailed in a group that also included Bayern Munich and Barcelona. So it’s not as if they made their way to the final – even if their journey through the knockout stages was easier than City’s. Guardiola’s side will love to win the trophy, but you never know in a high-pressure final.
Marcotti: As I mentioned before, it’s a big plus when they can escape pressure from possession or counterattacks. It can frustrate City and the longer they keep a clean sheet, the more confidence Inter will gain. The other factor is set pieces. Inter have excellent free-kick takers in Hakan Calhanoglou, Dzeko and Lautaro. And when it comes to corners and free-kicks, they have plenty of size with the likes of Acerbi, Alessandro Bastoni, Dzeko and Lukaku. Plus they have a keeper who can get as hot as Andre Onana and make all the difference on any given day. It’s a game, anything can happen. City are the overwhelming favorites but let’s not forget they have failed to win eight of their 35 Premier League games so far this season. There is a reason for this; The best team doesn’t always win.
Ogden: Believe. Inter have been on a winning streak in recent weeks, twice beating neighbors AC Milan in an eight-game winning streak. So confidence will be high, allowing them to face City knowing their players are on form and Inzaghi’s schedule is working. Inter’s experience will reinforce that belief. This is an experienced team of proven performers who are not intimidated by the prospect of facing City and are not intimidated by playing another game to face them. They’re Inter Milan, a club with a great history and a huge fanbase, and that brings security and confidence. City are by far the better team but Inter can do it if everything goes in their favour.
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Tell us how the result will be in the final and why
Dawson: City will win relatively comfortably. They have come on form at just the right time and the way they overwhelmed Real Madrid is a testament to a team that plays with pride and confidence and it will be very difficult to stop them from winning the treble , if that is still possible. In recent months City have scored four goals against Arsenal, Liverpool and Real Madrid and three against Bayern Munich. Guardiola’s team controls the games and scores a lot of goals. If Inter want to win they need a night off and in the last 27 games there has been little sign of that happening. City wins 3-0.
Marcotti: Logic says City because they are more talented, more athletic, fresher, more of a unit (although Inter have become a unit this season), are more used to these types of games and have a better manager. It can’t be said that they are anything but overwhelming favourites. So I’m aiming for a 2-0 win for City.
Ogden: Like Gab, my head says City will win, and well. They just demolished Real Madrid 4-0 and one thing about Guardiola’s team is that they show no mercy or take their foot off the pedal. So while I expect City to win 3-0, I could still see Inter winning 1-0 if the Nerrazzuri score first. And let’s not forget what happened when the last Champions League final took place in Istanbul; Liverpool stunned the footballing world by beating Carlo Ancelotti’s great side AC Milan from a 3-0 deficit in 2005. Maybe Inter can use that as motivation and hope they can achieve their own miracle from Istanbul.
Laurens: There’s no way the city will let this go. They learned a lot from losing to Chelsea two years ago, they are a better team and have momentum and confidence. I’m expecting a tough game against a low Inter block, but a moment of magic from De Bruyne, Haaland or Bernardo Silva will win the game 1-0 for City.
Champions League Final Betting Odds (via Caesars Sportsbook)
To win the final
Manchester City: -500
Inter Milan: +320