The G7 summit in Hiroshima gave a new and significant twist to the war in Ukraine. The US decision to only allow deliveries of F-16 fighter jets after months of reluctance opens a new military perspective on the conflict. This is not instantaneous as it will take months before delivery can be made effectively. However, it is clear that if they can be made available, Kiev will see a huge boost on the ground. It is no coincidence that Moscow reacted angrily, warning that the measure poses “colossal risks” for Western countries, in the already established pattern of deterrent threats.
The question of the F-16 isn’t the only twist that emerges at the summit. The completely surprising presence of the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, represents a diplomatic step, an important aspect of the conflict. After a long first phase in which he did not leave his country and a second with a series of bilateral meetings, Zelenski is now opening a stage with a vocal, lively presence in forums with a broad international focus.
In addition to the seven, the heads of state and government of India, Brazil, Indonesia, Vietnam, Australia and South Korea are present at the summit. The day before, the Ukrainian President made a stopover in Saudi Arabia to address the Arab League summit. Vladimir Putin personally has a more limited radius of action than he does on this diplomatic battlefield, a fundamental dimension of politics.
In addition to the military level with the F-16 and the diplomatic level, there is a third party with some weight. The G-7 partners have laid the groundwork for more problematic issues for Russia that could lead to further erosion of its capabilities. The Seven will tighten restrictions on exports to Russia that could directly or indirectly enable its industrial machinery to function; They will expand the scope of sanctions to include the diamond sector, which is lucrative for Russia. They warn that third parties who provide material support for Russian aggression face “significant costs”. All of this doesn’t represent a fatal blow, but it is another dark message to the Kremlin that the screws are getting tighter. This support for Kiev is enduring and seems unshakable.
Hiroshima thus represents a turning point, not in the sense of a conflict resolution, but in the sense of a medium to long-term change in perspective. It is likely that the war will continue for a long time, despite the initiatives of China or Brazil. And when the Kremlin expected a hold to dwindle Western support, a bitter reaction came from Hiroshima.
The F-16
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Washington for months resisted Kiev’s call for F-16s, endorsed by some European countries, in an attitude of caution that also shaped considerations of Himars, Patriots missiles or Western tanks. Eventually, US President Joe Biden relented, probably concerned about the possibility that these planes could be used to attack targets on Russian soil.
Biden this Friday supported an international initiative to begin training Ukrainian pilots to use the devices. On Saturday, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan spoke words that dispelled any doubts: “As training unfolds over the coming months, we will work with our allies to determine when the aircraft will be delivered, who will deliver them.” .” And how much”.
The F-16s aren’t the most advanced model the US is producing, but they are vastly superior to the Mig-29s and Su-27s that Ukraine has to use for the same functions. Russia, in turn, has Su-35 models that are better than the Ukrainian medium.
Presidents of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky (left) and France Emmanuel Macron during a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the G7 summit held in Hiroshima this Saturday. LUDOVIC MARIN (AFP)
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni (left) in front of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during the meeting they held in parallel with the G-7 summit in Hiroshima. DPA via Europa Press (DPA via Europa Press)
Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenski hugged Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni before the bilateral meeting held in Hiroshima this Saturday. LUDOVIC MARIN (AFP)
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (left) speaks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky upon his arrival at the Grand Prince Hotel where the G-7 summit was held. Stefan Rousseau (AP)
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak gives a back hug to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy upon his arrival at the Grand Prince Hotel, where the G-7 summit was held. Stefan Rousseau (AP)
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrives at Hiroshima Airport on Saturday. DPA via Europa Press (DPA via Europa Press)
From left, President of the European Council Charles Michel, Prime Ministers of Canada Justin Trudeau, Italy Giorgia Meloni and UK Rishi Sunak; French President Emmanuel Macron; Chancellor Olaf Scholz; European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and United States President Joe Biden during a visit to Itsukushima Shrine on Miyajima Island, Japan, on Friday. JACQUES WITT (AFP)
US President Joe Biden prepared for a working lunch for the G7 summit in the Japanese city of Hiroshima on Friday. BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI (AP)
From left, Joe Biden, Olaf Scholz, Rishi Sunak, Ursula von der Leyen, Charles Michel, Giorgia Meloni, Justin Trudeau, Emmanuel Macron and Fumio Kishida pose for the media before the start of a G7 working meeting on Friday. Associated Press/LaPresse (APN)
From left: the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen; Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau; US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida walked at Hiroshima Peace Memorial Park on Friday. Associated Press/LaPresse (APN)
G-7 leaders next to the Hiroshima Peace Memorial on Friday. Associated Press/LaPresse (APN)
From left: Charles Michel, Giorgia Meloni, Justin Trudeau, Emmanuel Macron, Fumio Kishida, Joe Biden, Olaf Scholz, Rishi Sunak and Ursula von der Leyen pose after the wreath ceremony at Hiroshima Peace Memorial Park on Friday. Associated Press/LaPresse (APN)
The leaders of Japan, the United States, Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom and Italy, along with European Council President Charles Michel and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, paid their respects to the victims of the atomic bomb on Friday . at the Hiroshima Peace Memorial. MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS BY J (via Portal)
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (centre) and his wife Akshata Murt (right) were greeted by Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and his wife Yuko Kishida at the Peace Memorial Park from Hiroshima on Friday. Associated Press/LaPresse (APN)
US President Joe Biden and his wife Jill Biden arrive at the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Park on Friday. Associated Press/LaPresse (APN)
diplomacy
After landing in Hiroshima on board a French government plane, Zelenskiy immediately began a series of bilateral meetings, including with French President Emmanuel Macron; German Chancellor Olaf Scholz; British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak or India’s Narendra Modi.
The presence of Modi and Brazilian Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is central to Zelenski’s arrival. New Delhi is closely linked to Moscow for historical reasons. He abstained in the UN vote on the Russian invasion and has expanded trade with his old partner during this period of geopolitical tension. Brasilia, which voted against the invasion, is promoting a peace negotiation initiative with elements of rhetoric and substance that arouse some skepticism among Westerners.
Although the key player is China, which the Seven urged in their final communiqué to use its influence to secure Russia’s withdrawal, India is undoubtedly a key player to pull it off given its economic size and the oxygen it provides to Russia buy a lot of fuel and for its international influence. Brazil is the case to a lesser extent, but it also has its relevance.
Western powers have been trying for months to convince countries of the Global South, which have no sympathy for Russian aggression but are suspicious of the West’s hypocrisy when they recall the invasion of Iraq, to agree with their arguments. Therefore, the group tries to develop its reasoning on the basis of respect for the international principles of inviolability of territory and sovereignty of states, and not on a moral level of struggle between democracies and authoritarian regimes. It can be expected that Zelenski will follow this path in accordance with the values of the UN Charter.
The unwavering support
The summit is also a relevant moment because it shows on the basis of facts that there is none of the alleged tiredness in supporting Ukraine. The EU has managed to successfully overcome the risk of an energy crisis. The economy did not suffer from this and from the surge in inflation as badly as expected. And now military support is preparing for a new move of tremendous depth, with significant cost and great time projection. And the G-7 claims that budget support to Ukraine is already secured for this year and early next.
Signals are coming from the battlefield that the expected Ukrainian counter-offensive may be successful. If so, it would be a collective morale boost for Ukrainians and their partners. But the F-16 announcement puts everything in a different context: it signals in advance that support will continue.
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