Each year, the NFL rankings are an exercise of parity. Our first instinct when judging teams on paper is to crown the most recent contenders and disregard those at the bottom, though in fact history tells us that at least a handful of playoff spots will change hands. Ditto for the league’s eight divisions; For example, in 2022, half of them had different champions than the year before.
With this in mind, who is most likely to retain their division title in 2023? Who is most likely to lose it? Here’s our rundown of the most vulnerable reigning champions, from the most shaky to the most resilient:
Record 2022: 8-9 | Division title series: 2 seasons
Talent isn’t great on either side of the ball, but that’s what happens when Tom Brady is eliminated in favor of Baker Mayfield down the middle. Yes, Brady was sluggish last season, but when they could barely control the NFC South with his quarterback vision, it’s hard to feel good about his holdover team — still led by conservative Todd Bowles — the Falcons fends off Panthers and Saints, all younger and/or improved, and especially with an O line also in transition.
2. Vikings (NFC North)
Record 2022: 13-4 | Division title series: 1 season
The Vikings’ penchant for winning tight games masked their leaky defense and negative point difference in 2022. Kevin O’Connell’s spirited leadership and Justin Jefferson’s explosiveness mean they should remain competitive. But the Lions were already on the rise and are poised to make a decent playoff move, with Dan Campbell’s squad boasting versatile offense and a livelier “D.” The Packers are a wildcard player but could easily remain in the wildcard hunt if Jordan Love’s debut as Aaron Rodgers’ successor goes well. And the Bears should be at least a few games better now that Justin Fields has a supporting cast.
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3. Bengals (AFC North)
Record 2022: 12-4 | Division title series: 2 seasons
Betting against Joe Burrow at the top of the North feels a little silly, but the fact of the matter is that this division is likely to be tough from top to bottom. The second-placed Ravens managed ten wins, despite Lamar Jackson being sidelined on the stretch, and now Jackson should be motivated – and slightly better placed with a stronger receiving corps – to live up to his new contract. The Browns, too, are poised to vent more as Deshaun Watson is under pressure to deliver after a poor debut in Cleveland. And the Steelers are perhaps the liveliest of them all, combining Mike Tomlin’s always-hard “D” with an improved setup for Kenny Pickett.
4. Eagles (NFC East)
Record 2022: 14-3 | Division title series: 1 season
Two things can be true: 1) The Eagles likely remain the most talented roster in the NFL after a Super Bowl shootout with the Chiefs, and 2) their road to their second straight title is daunting. Given the toughest game plan by opponents’ win rate in 2022, including a brutal rout against contenders against contenders, they may need another MVP-level campaign from Jalen Hurts to keep up with the Cowboys and Giants, respectively made offensive improvements in the playoffs -caliber lineups.
5. Bills (AFC East)
Record 2022: 13-3 | Division title series: 3 seasons
Like the Eagles, they are clearly in the class of their conference. But competition numbers within divisions are likely to be steep, which comes with a tough schedule. Even if Josh Allen and company are making waves on the scoreboard, they have at least two real rivals to worry about: the Jets are adding a motivated Aaron Rodgers to a balanced, playoff-caliber roster, and the Dolphins both have top-notch offensive speed as well as a better defensive leader in Vic Fangio; If QB Tua Tagovailoa can stay upright they should be involved.
6. 49ers (NFC West)
Record 2022: 13-4 | Division title series: 1 season
QB uncertainty is a big X factor here: is it Brock Purdy, Trey Lance or Sam Darnold in Week 1? And how is it from there? Due to the different circumstances, it’s guaranteed that none of these guys can match the production of Purdy and/or Jimmy Garoppolo in 2022. That said, Kyle Shanahan still has plenty of weapons on both sides of the ball, his system has proven relatively QB-proof before, and most importantly, only the Seahawks are considered real rivals to be reckoned with. The Rams still have Sean McVay as Matthew Stafford’s coach, but they’re admittedly retooling; The Cardinals, meanwhile, are even deeper in rebuild mode.
7. Jaguars (AFC South)
Record 2022: 9-8 | Division title series: 1 season
Is a team barely surpassing the .500 mark really one of the safest bets to repeat as a division champion? It’s certainly a validation of the Trevor Lawrence-Doug Pederson couple who endured gunslinger periods to find big success down the stretch (and now Calvin Ridley is adding to that). It’s also a charge against the South, where both the Colts and Texans are hitting the reset button on coach and QB. Mike Vrabel’s Titans are always more spirited than expected, but under new management, with aging fan favorites like Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry seemingly on their last legs in Nashville, they don’t have the staff to rival Jacksonville.
8. Chiefs (AFC West)
Record 2022: 14-3 | Division title series: 7 seasons
It really doesn’t matter what else happens in the west — the Broncos have a tougher leader in Sean Payton and should return to the run-based concepts Russell Wilson benefited from earlier in his career, the Chargers have a laser-armed face from the franchise Justin Herbert and the Raiders made side changes to import Josh McDaniels’ old Patriots friends. Ultimately, you can’t bet against the Chiefs as long as Patrick Mahomes is playing as QB for Andy Reid and Travis Kelce is playing as his number one target.