Having focused primarily on hitters for the past couple of issues of this fantasy column, this week’s post will take a deeper look at pitchers who could be involved in many of May’s trades. Pitchers, even more than batsmen, tend to have inconsistent stats in the early weeks of the season because they don’t show up in most games. A few great or bad outings will significantly change a pitcher’s numbers, but that shouldn’t change how he’s perceived in the trading market.
As always, you can easily gauge the market for these hurlers by entering their names on the Yahoo Trade Market page, which will show you their recent earnings in other leagues.
Players to Purchase
Kevin Gausman (SP, Toronto Blue Jays)
For the second straight season, Gausman has displayed incredible skill (27.6% K-BB rate) while also dealing with terrible luck (0.327 BABIP, 68.8% beach rate). His odds are good (3.14 ERA, 1.08 WHIP), but there is a scenario where his luck evens out in the coming months and he enjoys a period where he’s as successful as any other pitcher in baseball . I would like to trade things like that Gerrit Cole or Spencer Strider for Gausman and a second player who fills a need in my squad.
Joe Musgrove (SP, San Diego Padres)
Musgrove’s line-up has been a frustrating affair this year. The right-hander started the season on the injured list due to a toe injury and has posted a 6.75 ERA and 1.58 WHIP since returning to action. Musgrove is looking a lot better looking at the expected stats on Statcast (4.36 xERA, .230 xBA). There’s a good chance he’ll see a correction in luck over the next few weeks, and he’s capped at a borderline ace.
Devin Williams (RP, Milwaukee Brewers)
Through no fault of his own, Williams ranks 17th in baseball with seven saves. The right-hander has excelled in action (.59 ERA, .85 WHIP) but was unlucky to receive just seven save chances from a division-leading team. My suggestion is to offer a closer that has lower skills but a significantly higher total save count. Speaking of…
players to swap
Emmanuel Clase (RP, Cleveland Guardians)
Getting a royal ransom for Clase should be easy, given that he was the first closer off the board in most of the 2023 drafts and has collected three more saves than any other reliever to date. However, the underlying figures give cause for concern. Clase’s strikeout rate has dropped dramatically year-over-year to 15.8%, which comes with a drop in his average fastball speed of more than 1 mph.
He leads the majors with five failed saves and will be closer on average from that point unless he regains his lost speed. I would happily trade Clase for the aforementioned Williams and a second player to fill my team’s needs.
Sonny Gray (SP, Minnesota Twins)
Gray is perhaps the most obvious sell candidate among the starting pitchers right now. He’s had a spectacular start this year, leading the majors in ERA (1.82) and earning that mark with an impressive K:BB ratio of 66:21. But Gray doesn’t have a particularly good track record when it comes to durability, and his career 3.50 ERA shows he’s probably over the top right now. Anyone who can trade it for a return to top level should have the courage to take the step.
Shane Bieber (SP, Cleveland Guardians)
On the surface, Bieber still looks like the low-end ace he should be this season; low ERA of 3.00, more than six innings per start. But looking beyond those numbers reveals some worrying trends. His strikeout rate (17.8%) is down significantly and his WHIP is up (1.21). Most ERA metrics give Bieber’s expected grade between 4.00 and 5.00. Late May could be the last chance to swap out Bieber for a top-level return.
Jon Gray (SP, Texas Rangers)
I wouldn’t be in a hurry to trade Gray, but I’m not opposed to switching if another manager is dying to take his place. The right-hander is currently in overdrive, having allowed two runs spanning 20 innings in his last three starts. But Gray has surpassed his skills overall this year, benefiting from an 84.3% strand rate while posting a poor strikeout rate of 18.4%. Each of the popular ERA indicators assigns it a grade close to 5.00.
Tyler Wells (SP, Baltimore Orioles)
It’s hard for me to mention Wells in this article as he’s the type of pitcher I often find myself drawn to when completing my staff. The right-hander only walks a few times, which keeps his WHIP down, and he works in a pitcher-friendly park, which should limit the overall damage from the many flyballs he allows. Still, I have to admit that no starters enjoyed Wells’ combined luck at BABIP (.163) and beach rate (89.3%) this year. Those who can trade it for a more stable asset should consider doing so.