Posted May 25, 2023 at 9:55 p.m.
A new paradigm threatens to wipe out a particularly favorable summer episode in Quebec. Explanations.
hot sequence
Heat has shaped the last five summers in Quebec. In this sequence, if the 2023 edition of the beautiful season was hot, six in a row would be a first. In fact, all of those summers were among the 15 hottest on record. This year, however, the situation could change. In fact, there is a risk that a major player will upset the atmospheric situation in North America.
“The emergence of the El Niño phenomenon could favor a shift towards cold, confirms meteorologist Réjean Ouimet. At least given the past episodes. Regardless of the intensity of equatorial Pacific warming, the arrival of El Niño is often accompanied by a decrease in summer heat. But can this change continue and degenerate into successions of less interesting summers?
Disappointing time
When the El Niño phenomenon occurs in the Pacific, Quebec summers tend to suffer. By analyzing past sequences, Réjean Ouimet paints a picture that is anything but rosy. About twenty years ago, a situation similar to the one looming for 2023 arose. The result: the summers left a lot to be desired.
“In the early 2000s, after a similar succession of La Nina years, the El Niño phenomenon took over,” explains Réjean Ouimet. Although less constant, persistent, and intense, it recurred on and off until 2004. The summers then got cooler one after the other. Additionally, the ill-fated streak continued into 2009, with breaks in 2005 and 2006.
paradigm shift
Note that since 1950 Quebec has experienced only fifteen summers affected by the El Niño phenomenon. This is explained by the fact that the waters of the equatorial Pacific are often in the neutral phase during the summer season. Also keep in mind that the last three years have been in La Nina mode and the summers have been particularly hot. However, a reversal of the situation remains entirely possible.
“Other episodes with perverse effects have occurred in the past,” notes Réjean Ouimet. From the early 1990s through the middle of the decade, El Niño episodes set the tone: we observed a dominance of cool summers. A strong El Niño in 1982 and 1983 was followed by disappointing summers well into the 1990s. The causal link has yet to be elucidated, but it should come as no surprise that there are a number of summers that are very different from those of recent years.
In collaboration with meteorologists Réjean Ouimet and Patrick Duplessis.