Russia will not achieve a military victory in Ukraine and Kiev’s armed forces are unlikely to push all Russian troops out of their territory anytime soon, the United States’ top military official said.
“Russia will not win this war militarily. That’s just not the case,” General Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Thursday.
Russia’s initial strategic goals, including overthrowing the government in Kiev, are “militarily unattainable,” Milley told journalists after the conclusion of a virtual meeting of dozens of countries that are members of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, also known as the Ramstein Group.
Also, there are hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers in Ukraine, making Kiev’s goal of recapturing all territories lost to Moscow forces unlikely “in the near future,” Milley said.
“It means the fighting will continue, it will be bloody, it will be tough. And at some point, both sides will either negotiate an agreement or come to a military conclusion,” he said.
Milly’s assessment adds to a range of predictions that the war in Ukraine appears to be dragging on as neither side is able to claim a clear victory and no negotiations are currently taking place.
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, a key ally of President Vladimir Putin, also said Moscow’s war in Ukraine could drag on for decades.
According to comments published by Russia’s RIA news agency on Thursday, Medvedev described an ongoing conflict with years of fighting with Ukraine punctuated by multi-year ceasefires before fighting flared up again.
“This conflict will last for a very long time, most likely decades,” RIA news agency quoted Medvedev as saying during a visit to Vietnam.
“As long as there is such power [in Kyiv]”It will be, say, three years of ceasefire, two years of conflict and everything will repeat itself,” said Medvedev, now deputy chairman of Putin’s powerful Security Council.
Medvedev, known for regularly making harsh comments about Ukraine and those perceived as Moscow’s enemies, said earlier this year that a Russian defeat could trigger a nuclear war.
Tensions between Moscow and Washington continue to rise as the US spearheads international support and military aid to Ukraine, including coordinating arms shipments from dozens of countries. In an apparent policy reversal, the US announced last week that it would support the delivery of advanced US-made F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine.
In total, Ukraine’s backers have provided nearly $65 billion in security aid to the country, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said at Thursday’s news conference.
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington DC-based think tank, said that “a long war” was not a Russian goal but a means of adjusting to the situation in Ukraine after their plan for a quick victory failed. Russia’s ability to sustain an extended military operation in Ukraine is uncertain, while a “long war” would give Russia the time and space it needs to rebuild its armed forces, the institute said.
“Ukrainian counter-offensives will deny the Kremlin a breather to replenish its resources, further weaken Russia’s offensive potential and eventually allow Ukrainian forces to drive Russia out of Ukraine,” the ISW said.
“The Kremlin’s ‘long war’ narrative reflects Putin’s intent to rebuild Russia’s large-scale warfare capability. But it is also an information operation aimed at pulling the West away from Ukraine. This information operation builds on previous Russian efforts such as ceasefire narratives and nuclear blackmail,” the ISW added.
No “Magic Weapons”
On Thursday, Kyiv’s supporters discussed “plans for training Ukrainian pilots on fourth-generation fighter jets, including the F-16,” Austin told Milley, noting that “planning and conducting this training will be a significant undertaking.”
Austin said the Dutch and Danish defense ministers are working with the US to train fighter jets for Ukraine, and that Norway, Belgium, Portugal and Poland have already offered to help with the initiative.
In addition, he said the allies would set up a fund so other nations could contribute to the overall effort.
Commenting on the F-16 fighter jets, Milley warned that they would not be “the magic weapon”.
(Al Jazeera)
“There are no magic weapons” — neither the F-16 nor any other weapon, he said, noting that ten F-16s could cost $2 billion, including maintenance.
“The Russians have a thousand fourth and fifth generation fighter jets. So if you want to compete against Russia in the air, you need a significant number of fourth- and fifth-generation fighters,” he said.
F-16s have a future role as part of Ukraine’s air capabilities, but it will take “a considerable amount of time to develop an air force of the size and scale that would be required.”
Air defense systems are still the weapons Ukraine needs most as part of broader airspace control efforts, he said.
The US is ready to announce up to $300 million in military aid to Ukraine, consisting mostly of ammunition, two officials told Portal news agency.
The package is expected to include additional Guided Multiple Launch Rockets (GMLRS) for HIMARS launchers, as well as other ammunition.