- By Nduka Orjinmo
- BBC News, Abuja
9 hours ago
Often referred to as “Africa’s giant” due to its huge population and economic potential, Nigeria also has some titanic problems – and these are the ones Bola Tinubu will face when he takes over as president on Monday.
The 71-year-old is unlikely to be impressed by the challenges. As two-time governor of Lagos, he has revitalized Nigeria’s commercial hub – no easy task – and is well aware of the problems.
But Nigerians, even those who didn’t vote for him, will want to see results from Mr Tinubu soon. Here are some of the biggest hurdles he faces and how to overcome them.
end of the fuel subsidy
This challenge has been promoted by several governments since its inception in the 1970s.
Despite its oil wealth, Nigeria is unable to refine enough crude oil to meet local needs and so imports petroleum products which are then sold at a price set by the government. Since this is usually lower than the import price, the state pays the difference.
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Cheap fuel is seen as their right by many Nigerians given the country’s oil wealth
But this subsidy puts an enormous strain on the dwindling state finances. Last year 4.3 trillion naira (US$9.3 billion; 7.5 billion pounds) was wasted and 3.36 trillion naira was projected for the first half of this year.
These payments are at the expense of development goals such as building schools or hospitals, but removing the subsidy will not be easy as it will lead to an increase in prices.
The last attempt to do this in 2012 ended with widespread protests.
Many struggling Nigerians, used to politicians mismanaging the country’s oil wealth, believe cheap petrol is their share of what has been described as a “national pie”.
But Mr Tinubu has reiterated insistently that the subsidies must go, and his staff insist he has the political will to do so.
“He has the ability to listen and to offer comprehensive advice before making difficult decisions,” Housing Minister Babatunde Fashola, a close colleague who succeeded Mr Tinubu as Lagos governor in 2007, told the BBC.
One area he could explore to mitigate the impact is subsidizing and improving public transport – something he has experience in, having implemented a major public transport program in Lagos that introduced fast bus services.
The outgoing government also managed to secure an US$800 million loan from the World Bank to strengthen the welfare system for vulnerable Nigerians, who will be hit hardest by the loss of subsidies. However, the legislator still has to approve the package – so it is not a done deal yet.
Only 37% of voters backed Mr Tinubu, making him the Nigerian President elected with the lowest percentage of votes since 1999.
He won a hard-fought election that was not only bitter but exposed ethnic and religious divisions that exist in even Nigeria’s most cosmopolitan cities.
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Nigeria’s new president will find his inbox bulging
He will have to perform a balancing act in electing his government to build bridges across these divides.
There are indications he is already doing so, as he has reportedly met two opposition politicians since winning the February election:
- Musa Kwankwaso, a strong northern rival who finished third
- Nyesom Wike, the influential and outgoing Governor of Rivers State.
As Lagos governor, Mr Tinubu had probably the most ethnically diverse cabinet in Nigeria and appointed non-Lagosians to key positions, which is still a rarity.
“He’s more interested in technocrats who are thinkers and researchers,” his friend Seye Oyetade told the BBC.
But politicians, who often have common interests, may be easier to mollify than the millions of young Nigerians who didn’t vote for him – particularly those who supported Labor Party’s Peter Obi.
Many of them believe the vote was wrong, although the electoral commission denies this – and an election challenge is still pending in court.
Close allies say Mr Tinubu could win over some of them by providing jobs and involving young people in governance.
“You will see a government that embraces new ideas and technologies, and along with that you will see a lot of young people around you,” said Mr. Fashola.
Fix the economy
Most agree that this is Mr Tinubu’s area of expertise as a trained accountant – but things have never looked worse for Nigeria:
- Every third person is unemployed
- Inflation is at a record-breaking 22%
- 96 million live below the poverty line of $1.90 a day
- GDP per capita (the economic output generated by an average person in a year) was US$2,065 in 2021 (compared to US$70,248 and UK US$46,510).
- Low revenue due to declining oil sales.
Mr Oyetade dismisses such statistics: “These are not too dissimilar to what he met in Lagos in 1999.”
That may be an exaggeration, but Mr. Tinubu’s use of technology to improve tax collection in Lagos was remarkable, increasing revenue by more than 400% in eight years.
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Foreign currency can be difficult to come by, which has caused the gap between official rates and black market rates to widen
He has spoken several times of his ambition to expand the tax net, but with high inflation, rising poverty and widespread insecurity that often prevents people from working, this may be more difficult to achieve nationally.
Mr Tinubu also advocates a more private-sector approach, in contrast to his predecessor, Muhammadu Buhari, who aimed to strengthen national social safety nets.
Crucial, however, will be his relationship with Godwin Emefiele, the Federal Reserve Governor.
The new president criticized the bank’s policy of using multiple exchange rates.
This keeps the naira artificially high – the official exchange rate is 460 naira: US$1, available to various categories of people who have to apply and wait for it to become available.
Everyone else who wants forex has to take advantage of the parallel rate – currently 760 naira:$1, which means the gap between the official and black market is widening.
For a review to take place, Mr Tinubu must work with Mr Emefiele, who has one year left to serve as governor.
The two have a strained relationship after the central bank decided to reshape the local currency just before the election, leading to huge cash shortages. Some saw it as a ploy to thwart the ruling party’s chances of winning the election – allegations Mr Emefiele denies.
kidnapping and insecurity
Given the magnitude of the problem, Mr. Tinubu will want to get the problem under control quickly. His government will face gunmen on motorcycles in the Northwest, nationwide kidnappings and a violent secessionist group in the Southeast. Deadly clashes between farmers and shepherds continue to break out in the central states as well.
During the election campaign, Mr Tinubu’s deputy, future Vice President Kashim Shettima, said that was his job – citing his experience as governor of the northeastern state of Borno, home to many militant Islamist groups and the Boko Haram insurgency.
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The relatives of the kidnapped are desperate and desperately looking for ransom
But Nigeria’s security challenges have evolved since he left office in 2019 and President Buhari, a former army general, has failed dismally to find an answer during his eight years in power – instead, insecurity has escalated across the country.
The Tinubu-Shettima plan envisages the use of anti-terrorist battalions with special units to pursue the kidnappers and extremist groups.
More importantly, they have proposed freeing police personnel from VIP security and guard duties, which could lead to more cops taking to the streets to fight crime.
Keeping fit – and other distractions
Opponents of the new president say he has lost the vitality with which he violently modernized Lagos.
He has traveled abroad twice since the election, which has raised questions about his health. In 2021, he spent months in London being treated for an undisclosed illness.
He has dismissed the criticism, saying the job does not require the fitness of an Olympic athlete, and his staff are all quick to remind US President Joe Biden is older at 80.
But Nigerians are tired of seeing presidents spend significant time in hospitals abroad, resulting in the government struggling for control. This happened under both Mr. Buhari and Umaru Yar’Adua, who died in office in 2010.
They are also concerned about possible controversy. Ahead of the vote, Mr Tinubu denied various allegations of drug links and corruption.
Since his victory, it has been revealed that he was once issued with a Guinean diplomatic passport – which is not illegal but has not been previously disclosed. A Bloomberg investigation revealed his son owns a £11million mansion in London. Neither Mr. Tinubu, his son nor his associates have commented on the report and it has not been confirmed that Mr. Tinubu was involved in the purchase.
Mr. Tinubu’s allies will be concerned that further accusations could distract him from the daunting task he is now about to take on.