In a one-minute and four-second video, Ukraine’s Supreme Commanding General Valery Zalushnyi delivered a message to his countrymen – and the world – with images of determined-looking soldiers and advancing tanks: “The time has come to take back what belongs to us.”
The elaborate propaganda video titled “Prayer for the Liberation of Ukraine” was not only posted on Saturday morning on the supreme commander’s social media channels, but was also the main topic of Ukrainian television newscasts. Soldier chants like “Heil our decisive offensive” are not the only indication that the Ukrainian army’s long-awaited spring offensive may indeed be imminent.
Oleg Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security Council, told the BBC on Saturday that the offensive could “start tomorrow, the day after tomorrow or in a week”. It is a historic opportunity that Ukrainians cannot miss. According to the BBC, the interview was interrupted by a phone call from President Zelensky ordering Danilov to meet to discuss the details of the offensive. The head of Ukrainian military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, has announced in recent weeks that Ukraine now has everything it needs for an offensive.
Preparations have been under way for weeks: the Ukrainians have systematically attacked and partially destroyed Russian command posts, barracks, supply depots and railway junctions in occupied Crimea, occupied areas of eastern Ukraine and some parts of Russia itself. This was also achieved with the help of the Storm Shadow cruise missiles recently delivered by England, which have a range of 250 kilometers and have expanded the capabilities of the military commanded by Zalushnyi.
Otherwise, Ukraine is known to have re-equipped and trained nine brigades – each with up to 4,500 troops – in recent months with Western military technology for the offensive. These units were deliberately not used in defensive combat near Bakhmut and elsewhere, which Saluschnyi expressly regretted in mid-December 2022. “May the soldiers in the trenches forgive me,” the supreme commander told the English Economist at the time.
There is no counter-offensive without victims
When exactly and where the new brigades will be deployed is known only to Saluschnyi and a few others, including, of course, the nominal Commander-in-Chief, President Zelensky. There is speculation that the Ukrainians want to recapture the parts of the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions that are still occupied by Russia. These areas allow control of parts of the Black Sea and Sea of Azov coasts and control access to Crimea – from Moscow’s point of view, the crown jewel of the occupied territories.
Of course, the Russians have established several defensive lines of trenches, artillery emplacements, anti-tank barriers and minefields along the front in many places – any offensive is likely to result in heavy losses for the Ukrainians. US military planners were still assuming, at least in February, that an offensive on Kiev would only be able to liberate a small proportion of the 17% of its territory occupied by Moscow.
Russia, meanwhile, continues its drone and cruise missile war against Ukrainian targets. A good 40 bomb-equipped drones were fired over Kiev alone on Sunday night, which, according to the Kiev mayor and the Kiev military administration, were all shot down by anti-aircraft defenses. It was the fourteenth attack on Kiev in May.
A dozen Russian drones hit other cities. Explosions were reported in the town of Zhitomir, west of Kiev. Kherson was attacked three times, Ukraine’s “South” military high command reported seven Russian warships equipped with cruise missiles in the Black and Azov Seas and rated the danger of further attacks as high. In the city of Dnipro, military governor Serhi Lisak reported that four dead had been recovered so far after a Russian missile attack on a hospital on May 27.