Surroundings
Groundbreaking analysis of security and justice to serve as the basis for next-generation sustainability policies
According to a groundbreaking analysis of Earth’s well-being, human action has brought the world into danger in seven out of eight newly established indicators of security and justice on the planet.
The report by the Earth Commission’s group of scientists goes beyond climate disruption and provides disturbing evidence that our planet faces mounting crises in water availability, nutrient stress, ecosystem preservation and aerosol pollution. These endanger the stability of life-support systems and worsen social equality.
The study, published in Nature on Wednesday, is the most ambitious attempt yet to combine vital signs for the planet’s health with indicators of human well-being.
Prof. Johan Rockström, one of the lead authors, said: “It is an attempt to carry out an interdisciplinary scientific assessment of the entire human-planet system, which we need to do given the risks we face.”
“We have reached what I call a saturation point, where we have reached the limit of the Earth system’s biophysical ability to remain in its steady state. We are approaching tipping points, we are seeing more and more permanent damage to life support systems on a global scale.”
The Earth Commission, founded by dozens of the world’s leading research institutions, wants the analysis to form the scientific backbone of the next generation of sustainability goals and practices that go beyond the current focus on climate to include other indices and environmental justice. She hopes cities and businesses will adopt the goals to measure the impact of their activities.
The study establishes a set of “safe and just” standards for the planet that can be compared to the vital functions of the human body. Instead of pulse, temperature and blood pressure, indicators such as water flow, phosphorus consumption and land conversion are considered.
The limits are based on a synthesis of previous studies by universities and UN scientific groups, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Intergovernmental Science and Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services.
The situation is serious in almost all categories. Setting global standards is a challenge. In terms of climate, the world has already set itself the goal of keeping global warming as low as possible, between 1.5°C and 2°C above pre-industrial levels. The Earth Commission notes that this is a dangerous level, as many people are already severely impacted by the extreme heat, drought and flooding that accompany the current reading of around 1.2C. They say a safe and just climate target is 1°C, which would require a huge effort to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. They state that it is impossible to stabilize the climate without protecting ecosystems.
To achieve this, the “safe and equitable” limit is that 50 to 60% of the world is home to mostly natural ecosystems. However, the reality is that only 45 to 50% of the planet has a healthy ecosystem. According to the commission, in human-modified areas such as farms, towns and industrial parks, at least 20 to 25% of the land must be used for semi-natural habitats such as parks, allotments and clumps of trees to maintain ecosystem services such as pollination, water quality regulation, pest and disease control, and the health and mental health benefits of access to nature. However, about two thirds of the changed landscapes do not achieve this goal.
Another target is aerosol pollution, which accumulates from car exhaust, factories, and coal, oil, and gas power plants. On a global scale, the report focused on minimizing the imbalance in aerosol concentrations between the northern and southern hemispheres that can disrupt monsoon season and other weather patterns. At a local level, such as in cities, it follows the World Health Organization and sets a limit of 15 micrograms per cubic meter of mean annual exposure to small particulate matter, known as PM2.5, which can damage the lungs and heart. This is a social justice issue, as poorer, often predominantly black, communities tend to suffer the worst outcomes, many of which are found in vulnerable areas.
The benchmark for surface water is that in no catchment area should more than 20% of rivers and streams be blocked as this will lead to deterioration in water quality and loss of habitat for freshwater species. This “safe limit” has already been crossed by dams, drainage systems and civil works on a third of the world’s land surface. The situation is similarly dire for groundwater systems, where the safe limit is that aquifers will not be depleted faster than they can be replenished. However, 47% of the world’s river basins are drying up at an alarming rate. This is a major problem in metropolitan areas like Mexico City and areas of intensive agriculture like the North China Plain.
Nutrients are another area of concern, with farmers in wealthier countries spraying more nitrogen and phosphorus than the plants and land can absorb. This temporarily increases yields but results in runoff into water systems that are choked by algal blooms and unhealthy for humans. According to the report, global justice is the key here. Poorer countries need more fertilizers, while rich countries need to reduce the surplus. Balanced, the “safe and equitable limit” in this case is a global surplus of 61 million tons of nitrogen and about 6 million tons of phosphorus.
The authors say the planetary diagnosis is bleak but not yet hopeless, although time is running out for remedy.
Joyeeta Gupta, Co-Chair of the Earth Commission and Professor of Environment and Development in the Global South at the University of Amsterdam, said: “Our doctor would say that the Earth is really quite ill in many areas right now. And that affects people on Earth. We not only have to fight the symptoms, but also the causes.”
David Obura, another commissioner and director of coastal research and development in the Indian Ocean, said the policy framework is already in place to get back within safe limits through the targets of existing UN climate and biodiversity agreements. However, he emphasized that consumer decisions must also play an important role.
“We can take a range of medications, but we also need lifestyle changes – less meat, more water and a more balanced diet,” he said. “It is possible to do it. Nature’s regenerative powers are robust… but we need a lot more commitment.”
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