Artillery shell fire hit a slum in Khartoum, the capital of Sudan, on May 31.
Local residents say the attack killed At least 18 civilians were killed and 106 others wounded in a local market, but no one knows if it was at the hands of the Sudanese army or the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) – the two sides that have thrown the country into war to defeat each other.
Local residents said the RSF was deployed to the neighborhood shortly after the incident, leading to ongoing street battles with the army and fears more civilians would die in the crossfire.
“The area is still being bombed due to clashes between the two parties,” said Fadeel Omer, 25, an activist from Mayo, the area where the attack took place.
“But with [the RSF’s] Deployed in the area, there’s more fear of them than that [army’s] bombing,” he added.
The market attack could be the start of a serious escalation. A day earlier, the army withdrew from ceasefire talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The announcement indicated that Army Commander-in-Chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan was preparing a major offensive to retake the capital from the RSF, local residents and experts told Al Jazeera.
Al-Burhan said he was ready to resume talks three days later, but the RSF claimed the army’s terms were impossible to meet. An army official reportedly said the army had asked the RSF to stop occupying homes and hospitals before negotiations resumed.
Since then, both sides have been hit with US sanctions to target their war chests. With neither side moving, some civilians feared they would bear the brunt of the sharp rise in violence. Others said they supported a major army attack.
“If that’s what it takes to get rid of the RSF, then so be it,” said Mohamad Jamal, a resident of Khartoum. “We are being abused by them.”
Dead in the water?
RSF, which has its stronghold in the western province of Darfur, has never had a large following in Khartoum, a city traditionally home to Sudan’s middle class and business elite.
Despite the lack of support, the militia has made no effort to win the hearts and minds of the capital, despite claiming on its social networks that it supports democracy.
Instead, the group has spread across the city to terrorize residents by ransacking homes, kidnapping young men and raping women, residents and victims told Al Jazeera.
The RSF’s human rights abuses have led many to view the army as the lesser of two evils, while some overlook its indiscriminate airstrikes. The army regularly attacks civilian targets such as hospitals, schools and homes, according to ACLED, a nonprofit organization that collects real-time data on conflicts.
Kholood Khair, a Sudanese analyst and founding director of think tank Confluence Advisory, told Al Jazeera that a major army offensive could jeopardize its support if it causes too much harm to civilians.
“The army cannot afford to lose the support – be it historical or symbolic – from its citizens in Khartoum, because then they would really be dead in the water,” she said.
“The RSF is just waiting and urging the army to bomb the city to make it their property [human rights] “Abuses can look paltry compared to the people killed indiscriminately in army attacks,” she added.
Despite the risk a major army offensive poses to civilians, Khair said the army will likely go ahead to prove to its supporters that it can liberate parts of the city.
An attack would also aim to gain much-needed pressure before negotiations resume with the RSF, she said.
“[An army] The offensive would have two goals. First is to show that they can achieve military victories against the RSF [the second] is to save face before entering a new platform for dialogue.”
Ready for battle
In Mayo, the neighborhood where residents were killed and seriously injured three days ago, Omer said many people are taking precautions to avoid the impending offensive.
Some have fled to other parts of the city, while others have considered fleeing Khartoum if they can.
“Indeed there is a fear of a military attack [Khartoum]’ Omer told Al Jazeera. “The talks in Jeddah presented a glimmer of hope [everyone] to get out of the crisis. But after the army left, some dreams of an end to the war faded.”
Since the beginning of the war, many people have sought refuge in Port Sudan, an eastern city completely under army control. But the army recently banned buses from entering the city, blaming an alleged conspiracy by the RSF to secretly plant spies.
The army’s statement has people worried that RSF could launch attacks on Port Sudan in response to a major offensive in Khartoum.
“The [army] has already sealed off the Port Sudan region and no one understands why,” said Sammer Hamza, 25, who fled to the city from Khartoum last week.
“At night we hear gunfire and bullets being exchanged, but no one knows what is happening. I just hope nothing happens here. If there is a war in Port Sudan, we will lose all of Sudan,” she added.
Back in Khartoum, activists are preparing for an increase in the number of victims. Omer said he spends most of his time at a local hospital helping to rescue people who survived the market attack.
“We [activists] do everything possible to save lives and limit the damage [in our neighbourhood] by providing health care,” he said.