For several weeks the whole world has been waiting for the outcome of the “Ukrainian counter-offensive” that will wipe out the Russian presence in Ukraine. In order for this counter-offensive to be carried out successfully, various capacities were transferred to Ukraine.
However, although Kiev has received main battle tanks, highly mobile artillery systems or helicopters for this task, the Ukrainian army has not yet received fighters to complete the large units (brigades and divisions) tasked with driving out the invaders from its territory. And that despite the fact that he had urgently asked for it on June 1 at the European Policy Conference in Moldova in front of almost fifty European heads of state and government.
What air capacity would Ukraine need to escort ground forces? Why did President Volodymyr Zelenskyy order F-16? What influence would fighters have on the balance of power in the future?
What air capacity would Ukraine need for its offensive?
One of the elements that had the least influence on the war in Ukraine was the air. Despite the suffering of the Ukrainians, Russian aviation did not have the importance that one would have expected from an operation like this.
Ukrainian air defenses kept Russian planes off the battlefield, meaning SU-24, SU-25, MIG-23 and MIG-29 could not provide close air support to Russian ground forces.
Although this situation is not critical, immediate air support is an unbalanced aspect in military campaigns, as illustrated by General Quesada’s actions in the Normandy landings or the attack on the Mitla Pass in the Civil War. of the Six Days (1967). ).
If we focus on how the counteroffensive can develop, Ukraine would benefit from instantaneous air attack aircraft capable of hitting enemy targets that are pursuing and/or threatening their ground forces. With that in mind, and considering what Western allies have, the A-10 is undoubtedly the aircraft that best suits Ukraine’s needs.
The A-10 or Thunderbolt is a US-made aircraft that can fly at low altitudes (up to 300 meters) and from there punish enemy troops. This ability to fly so low poses a particular risk for surface-to-air missiles or even man-portable air defense systems.
Therefore, the A-10 has 510 kilos of special armor that allows it to remain airborne even after being hit, making the A-10 an aircraft that prioritizes survival over mission accomplishment .
In addition, it has the ability to land at commercial airports or even on broad highways, making it a particularly useful fighter given the devastation Ukraine has suffered in recent months.
However, despite all these optimal characteristics for fulfilling the mission, Ukraine rejected the Thunderbolt as a counter-offensive aircraft.
Why did Ukraine reject the A-10 and demand the F-16?
As we said earlier, the A-10 is an optimal aircraft for the Ukrainian counteroffensive, although its strengths are also its main limitation when conducting other types of missions.
For this reason, Kiev has its sights set on an aircraft like the F-16, a fighter aircraft capable of close air support like the A-10, but also capable of air superiority missions or attacks on ground defenses. .
The F-16 is the Ukrainian Army’s most desirable fighter as it is a versatile aircraft that would allow it to control its airspace against its neighbors’ MIGs and Sukhoi.
What impact will fighters have on the balance of power in the future?
If anything is clear, it is that the F-16s will not be part of the large units at the start of the counteroffensive. Although it appears that they have been training Ukrainian pilots for some time, the training time is too long for the needs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
In addition, it is necessary to set up repair and maintenance centers for these fighters, so even if Ukrainian pilots were trained in record time, the continuity of their planes could not be guaranteed.
However, what Ukraine is aiming for with the transfer of the F-16, apart from satisfying its defense needs, is integration into Western security structures, which puts the Ukrainian air force on a par with countries such as the Netherlands, Portugal or Poland.
Therefore, when Paris, Brussels, London and Washington pledged on May 17 to surrender their F-16s to Ukraine, they not only gave it air capacity for the counteroffensive, but also welcomed Kiev to the West. And probably NATO too.
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Editor’s Note: This article was originally published on The Conversation and is reproduced under a Creative Commons license. The author is a professor at the Faculty of Law-ICADE.
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