- Late last week, days of violent clashes erupted between security forces and supporters of Ousmane Sonko, the 2024 presidential candidate and leader of opposition party PASTEF, who was sentenced in absentia on Thursday to two years in prison for “corruption of youth.”
- At least 16 people were reportedly killed and hundreds more injured as of Monday, while police arrested around 500 people in several cities.
- The unrest is the worst in decades in a country often seen as a beacon of democracy and stability in the region.
DAKAR, Senegal – June 2, 2023: Supporters of jailed opposition leader Ousmane Sonko protest in the Senegalese capital following his two-year prison sentence for “corrupting youth”.
Annika Hammerschlag/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
The criminal conviction of a populist opposition leader in Senegal has sparked widespread unrest, threatening the West African country’s longstanding political stability.
Late last week, days of violent clashes erupted between security forces and supporters of Ousmane Sonko, the 2024 presidential candidate and leader of opposition party PASTEF, who was sentenced in absentia on Thursday to two years in prison for “corruption of youth.” He was acquitted of the charge of rape.
At least 16 people were reportedly killed and hundreds more injured as of Monday, while police arrested around 500 people in several cities. Access to the internet and social media has been restricted and roadblocks have been put in place on major routes.
“The recent deaths and injuries of protesters set a worrying tone for the 2024 presidential election and should be thoroughly investigated and those responsible held accountable,” said Carine Kaneza Nantulya, deputy Africa director at Human Rights Watch.
“The authorities should end the repression of protesters and critics and guarantee freedom of assembly.”
This condemnation and calls for restraint have been reiterated in recent days by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres spokesman, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) regional bloc and African Union Commission Chairman Moussa Faki Mahamat.
“The Senegalese authorities should end arbitrary arrests, release those unlawfully detained, including children, and respect the right of the Senegalese people to peacefully demonstrate and protest,” said Kaneza Nantulya.
“The African Union and ECOWAS should use their influence to urge the Senegalese authorities to end their crackdown on protests and critics.”
The unrest comes after several turbulent years and is the worst in decades in a country often seen as a role model for democracy and stability in the region.
triggers for unrest
Sonko has been adamant that the numerous criminal cases brought against him in recent years are politically motivated and part of President Macky Sall’s administration’s efforts to quash his 2024 candidacy. The conviction could disqualify him from running for office.
He was first charged with rape in March 2021 and faces further charges of defamation. His various trial dates over the past two years have often been accompanied by violent outbursts from his supporters.
Public tensions have been simmering lately over speculation that Sall is seeking a third term, despite the country’s two-term limit and his rapidly declining popularity since the last election in 2019.
According to analysts at Pangea-Risk, the intelligence agency specializing in Africa, the causes of the unrest are both political and socio-economic in nature. Consumer price inflation has slowed since late 2022 but is around 9%, with food prices up more than 11% year-on-year.
“Transport costs, rents, electricity tariffs and fuel prices are still unaffordable for many Senegalese. Even though the country’s economy has been growing at record rates, thanks to heavy investment in resource sectors and infrastructure projects, including both renewable energy and gas-” “The livelihoods of many people have not improved significantly as a result of the power plants that have been fired,” Pangea-Risk said.
ZIGUINCHOR, Senegal – May 24, 2023: Opposition leader and 2024 presidential candidate Ousmane Sonko meets supporters protesting his rape trial.
Muhamadou Bittaye/AFP via Getty Images
“Many young urban residents feel socio-economically marginalized and are increasingly frustrated with a government reportedly led by aging and distant leaders who have been too slow to cushion the economic hit of the pandemic and the impact of the war in Ukraine.” .”
It is this demographic that is drawn to Sonko, a former tax inspector and whistleblower best known for exposing offshore tax havens used by members of the Senegalese elite. He founded PASTEF in 2014.
After the failure of his first presidential bid in 2019, he was elected mayor of the southern city of Ziguinchor in 2022. Since then he has built a strong base in the south of the country and among socio-economically disaffected voters in cities and industrial regions.
Sonko has fueled the fire of the recent protests with PASTEF issuing a statement on Thursday urging citizens to “stop all activity and take to the streets”. Last month he initiated a procession for his motorcade between Zinguinchor and Dakar and encouraged protesters to join him.
Whether police plan to arrest Sonko just before his sentence begins remains unclear, although such a move would likely add fuel to the recent tensions. Since his apparent house arrest, Sonko has championed a “national resistance movement” in defense of civil liberties.
A critical choice
If last week’s conviction stands, Sonko could follow other opposition leaders like Khalifa Sall (unrelated to the president) and Karim Wade, both of whom were convicted of fraudulent use of funds and banned from running ahead of the 2019 election.
Some commentators have speculated that, to split opposition votes in the 2024 election, President Sall might grant amnesty to some previously disqualified political leaders after the government’s apparent repression in recent years shook opposition parties.
WASHINGTON, DC – DECEMBER 15, 2022: Senegalese President Macky Sall joins US President Joe Biden to speak at the US-Africa Leaders Summit.
Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
Pangea-Risk warned in its Monday report that the threat of civil unrest is increasing as the 2024 election approaches and is being exacerbated by the Sall government’s efforts to curb opposition and freedom of expression.
Although the recent violence appears to have been curbed by internet restrictions and mass deployment of the military, they added that if Sonko were physically arrested or if Sall announced that he was running for election, there could be “widespread unrest” in major urban centers as the ruling APR’s candidate for a third term.
“A popular backlash to [Sall’s] “Ambitions to extend power could sever ties with international investment partners, foreign donors and the IMF, whose support is needed to maintain fiscal stability, funding for subsidies and debt on services,” Pangea-Risk said.
economic outlook
Senegal’s medium-term economic growth prospects have improved due to a massive influx of new hydrocarbon investments. Several large liquefied natural gas (LNG) and crude oil projects are slated to come online later this year.
“In the short term, debt sustainability will remain a key concern as costly energy subsidies put sustained pressure on government budgets,” the report predicted.
“The government is unlikely to follow the IMF’s advice to cut subsidies and instead increase spending on socio-economic relief measures aimed at boosting its attractiveness ahead of the 2024 election.”
DAKAR, SENEGAL – MAY 29, 2023: A Senegalese gendarme stands near a plume of smoke billowing from burning tires during a protest against the arrest of opposition leader Ousmane Sonko ahead of the final verdict in his rape trial.
JOHN WESSELS/AFP via Getty Images
The IMF and Senegalese authorities last month agreed a new 36-month funding arrangement for approximately $1.526 billion under the institution’s Enhanced Fund Facility and Enhanced Borrowing Facility, combined with a $327.1 million Resilience and Sustainability Facility U.S. dollar.
Related policy requirements include fiscal consolidation, stronger governance and an anti-money laundering and anti-terrorist financing framework, and the delivery of “more inclusive and job-rich growth,” the IMF said in Dakar last month.
The DC-based organization forecast that Senegal’s hydrocarbon-free GDP growth will reach 5.3% in 2023, down from the original forecast of 6%. Total GDP growth could top 8% this year if the aforementioned oil and gas production picks up in the fourth quarter.
Public debt is also expected to fall from 75% of GDP in 2022 to more sustainable levels in the coming years. The country’s debt situation is generally viewed as stable, with prospects seen as sustainable due to new hydrocarbon earnings due later this year.