Andrés Manuel López Obrador during his morning conference this Wednesday. Presidency of the Republic (EFE)
The race to succeed the President has already entered decisive phases. This was stated by Andrés Manuel López Obrador in his press conference this Wednesday, one day after Marcelo Ebrard announced his resignation from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs from next Monday. “That process has already begun and that is why Ebrard has resigned because, as is well known, he is seeking a candidacy,” the President said. López Obrador added that he hopes the other applicants will leave their posts soon and announced that he is evaluating who will replace them. “It’s possible nowadays that even those who aspire to do so will tender their resignations. Who will replace her? There is still time because it is only the announcement,” he referred to the adjustments in his cabinet.
“I would like to give a special thank you to President López Obrador for his support, trust, generosity, guidance and closeness over the years, and we will continue to do so in the years to come,” Ebrard said in his farewell message. It was also an announcement that from June 12 he will dedicate himself fully to the campaign for Morena’s candidacy. The party’s internal struggle for power is forcing López Obrador to make at least two changes in key positions in his government. He must appoint a new chancellor and a deputy at the interior ministry before the foreseeable departure of Adán Augusto López, who has not yet said when he will leave office. “The Lord’s times are perfect,” wrote López on his social networks after the message from his cabinet partner, also calling for “calm and patience.”
“I have time to think,” said López Obrador. The so-called Fourth Transformation envisages further changes in key positions, in line with the aspirations of Prime Minister Claudia Sheinbaum and Morena Bank Senate coordinator Ricardo Monreal, who have also raised their hands for the elections in 2024. In these cases, it is not clear that they are submitting a final withdrawal and are understood to be applying for a license. In any case, what is most likely to happen is restructuring, albeit temporary. Monreal said he respects Ebrard’s strategy, though he accused the early riser, “I think he’s exaggerating.” Sheinbaum, who leads most polls, was more cryptic. “We’re doing pretty well. I am happy and encouraged,” wrote the Prime Minister on her social networks.
The key date to clarify the prospects for the coming months is Sunday, when Morena is scheduled to hold a national assembly for each bidder to table his proposals for the rules of the successor game. The main mishap takes place between Sheinbaum and Ebrard, who have conflicting views on the polls being conducted to determine the candidacy. López Obrador summoned the four main contenders to a restaurant in downtown Mexico City on Monday, demanding the Corcholatas’ resignation as a condition of participating in the internal process. The party leadership, in line with the President’s instructions, has said that it is an essential requirement that there is a “level basis” and that everyone can start on equal terms. “If Morena’s council approves her resignation, then so be it,” the executive added.
“For the first time there is no cover, no finger, no impertinence,” said Lopez Obrador. The president has stressed several times this week that he has no favourites, which is crucial for internal struggle and strengthening unity in the ruling bloc. The President has also kept tabs on opposition movements. The coalition Va por México – made up of the opposition parties PRI, PAN and PRD – announced that it will announce the method for selecting its candidate for the presidency by June 26 at the latest. “In the conservative bloc, we already know that they will consult with the bosses and the oligarchs to reach an agreement, as they have been doing lately,” he commented.
López Obrador has also winked at applicants who felt “abused,” such as Gerardo Fernández Noroña. The Labor MP, who according to some polls has a higher voting intention than López and Monreal, felt ignored and complained about not being invited to the dinner called by the President this week. “By excluding myself, millions of Mexicans will be excluded,” lawmakers said. “He has every right to participate,” the president said. He also explained that the process is also open to members of Mexico’s Green Ecological Party as competitors, such as Senator Manuel Velasco, who has already received his membership in the so-called Corcholata Club. The prerogative of the ruling bloc is to avoid rupture at all costs.
The Morena Council monopolizes the eyes, and the bishops of the campaign teams anticipate fierce and very technical negotiations over the polls’ methodology, such as the questions that will be included and the selection of the polling stations that will conduct the demoscopic exercise. Similar to other internal processes, it is likely that there will be at least two surveys: the first with a large number of participants and one with a smaller group of applicants, a kind of second round. “I didn’t hear anyone who was against it, it’s also a method that has proven its effectiveness,” López Obrador said of the polls. In a little less than a year, the Mexicans will be called upon to elect a new president and renew the composition of both chambers.
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