CLEVELAND – There is an expiration date. Barring unforeseen developments, Shane Bieber will not be living in Cleveland beyond the 2024 season. Then he has to rely on his free hand.
However, that is not the expiration date.
The Guardians don’t normally chauffeur their star players down the red carpet at winter meetings. Typically, players leave Cleveland on the club’s terms. Bieber will soon be donning another team’s jersey. Maybe later this summer. Maybe this off-season.
With a starting pitcher reinventing itself and the team trying to navigate through what has been a disappointing season so far, the Guardians should have ample motivation over the next eight weeks to at least explore what a Bieber trade might look like, regardless of their standing in the American League Central.
However, it is a complicated situation.
The two sides have been talking about a long-term pact for the past few springs, but the talks have not yielded much. Bieber is making a tad over $10 million this season and is entitled to a more lucrative payday next season.
Cleveland has a pattern in handing out starting pitchers under similar circumstances.
• July 2019: Trade from Trevor Bauer, who will retain control of the team for one more year
• December 2019: Swap from Corey Kluber with one year of team control remaining (plus a club option which Rangers ultimately turned down)
• August 2020: Mike Clevinger was traded with more than two years of team control remaining
The Guardians’ primary needs are obvious. They rank at or near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories. Any young hitter with the ability to hit extra base would be welcome. The two logical ways to attract such a player: pool prospects or trade Bieber. It might even be up to the Guardians to do both.
As usual, the Guardians have great starting depth, with rookies Logan Allen and Tanner Bibee standing as solid big-league options. Triston McKenzie and Aaron Civale returned from injury last weekend. Gavin Williams, a consensus top-50 contender, has done well in seven starts for Triple-A Columbus.
That’s not to say the Guardians don’t need Bieber, who conceded a run in 5 2/3 innings against the Red Sox on Tuesday. Even without the devastating pitching arsenal that led him to a unanimous selection for the AL Cy Young Award in 2020, he has always held his own, with a 3.57 ERA in 2023 and a 2.88 200-inning ERA in 2022 still proven to be extremely effective. Also, the Guardians need to monitor the workload of Allen, Bibee and Williams this season.
But what exactly is Bieber at this point? Is he an ace? A guy in the middle of a rotation? Is he more valuable to the Guardians or to another team?
What do other teams think of him in particular? Would an acquiring team aim to extend it?
Bieber has far less margin for error than he did when he swung a 94-mph fastball and leaned heavily on a deadly curveball. This year, however, his strikeout rate has plummeted and he’s taken more hits and hard contacts than ever before. He has had four or more strikeouts in just two of his 13 starts. His whiff rate has come down sharply this season.
This season, Shane Bieber has averaged 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings. In 2021, his average was 12.5 per nine. (Geoff Burke / USA Today)
The key to all of this is the market. What other starting pitchers will be available this summer and how do other teams view Bieber in the present and future?
Finding the right match might prove difficult. A quick poll of beat writers at The Athletic found that the Angels (his home team), Orioles, Rangers, Cardinals, Astros, Padres, Mets, and Dodgers might all have varying levels of interest. Some of these teams have needs in their rotation. Some of these teams have a surplus of young outfielders. Some have both.
When the Guardians switch Bieber this summer, he’ll become a playoff contender. But will a contender part ways with a capable young hitter (or two) who has either made it to the majors or is on the verge of such a rise? In previous deals, the Guardians have received both immediate and future aid. For Clevinger, for example, they were able to bring on three big players (Josh Naylor, Cal Quantrill, Austin Hedges) and three prospects (Gabriel Arias, Owen Miller, Joey Cantillo).
One scout was skeptical that Bieber could fetch the Guardians as much as the Reds got for Luis Castillo last summer, although he noted that Cleveland’s front office rarely deviates from its asking price. The Guardians may be seeking a return worthy of a No. 1-No. 2 starter, but other teams (other than the A’s) have access to FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, where they can uncover Bieber’s underlying metrics. Like Bieber, Castillo still had a year and one change to stay in control of the team. According to the MLB pipeline, the Reds were able to win three of Seattle’s top five contenders, but the Mariners turned back two months later and signed Castillo to a five-year contract worth more than $100 million.
The Guardians employ a range of midfield talent who have either broken through to the majors or are ready to do so at any time. Arias, Tyler Freeman, and Brayan Rocchio were all once considered top 100 contenders in the game. Prospects Angel Martínez and José Tena also feature in the club’s 40-man squad.
This leaves the outfield as an obvious target area. George Valera, the Guardians’ second best pick this season according to The Athletic’s Keith Law, is recovering from a wrist injury. He could make his major debut before the end of the summer.
Based on team control alone, the Guardians can probably get more for Bieber by the trade deadline than if they kept him until the end of the season. Whether they can determine a meaningful fit remains to be seen. The trading period ends on August 1st. Until then, we’ll better understand the Guardians’ competitive status and Bieber’s reputation as a front-runner.
With Bieber on board, the Guardians haven’t exactly been an AL juggernaut this season. Considering a trade would be more about its future with the franchise than the team’s bet on 2023, especially given the division’s weak shape. This is not about buying or selling; For the Guardians, it’s always about resource allocation.
Bieber probably won’t be part of the next big Cleveland rotation anyway. And the Guardians are in dire need of offensive upgrades. In order to strengthen their roster in the short and long term, they need to change their lineup, and Bieber could prove to be an effective way to do that. The expiry date is approaching.
GO DEEPER
Shane Bieber’s transformation: The Guardians star reinvents himself as a pitcher
(Top Photo: Sue Ogrocki/Associated Press)