What consequences and what meaning Detonation of the Kakhovka dam on the Dnipro river by Russian forces has not yet been fully clarified.
But achieved at least three things.
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On the one hand, it caused an environmental catastrophe. A Ukrainian official speaks of an “ecocide”. It will affect the region’s ecological system for a long time to come, not to mention the destruction of homes and infrastructure and the displacement of civilians. Fortunately, the threat to the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant currently appears to be low.
ben hodges is Lieutenant General a. D. and was commander of the US Army in Europe.
On the other hand, the offensive operations of the Ukrainian armed forces in this area will be postponed for a relatively limited time. Experts predict that the flood waters will subside over the next five to seven days and the soil will quickly dry out in the summer heat. Therefore, the effect expected by the Russian side to stop Ukraine’s Dnipro offensive is likely to be short-lived.
Third, the act shows and reminds us again how the Russians operate. They are ready to cause an ecological catastrophe. They have no regard for their own soldiers..
Their positions were flooded. Crimea’s water supply is now under threat. The explosion forces the evacuation of thousands of people on the Russian-controlled side of the Dnipro River in “Kherson Oblast”. Moscow had proclaimed it as part of Russia just a few months ago.
“Scorched Earth Tactics” What the Attack on the Kakhovka Dam Means for the Kiev Offensive
The Russians once again belied his claims about the purpose of their special military operation. Panicking, they blew up the dam. But they will get little out of this war crime.
Areas flooded after the explosion of the Kakhovka dam in Kherson, southern Ukraine. © dpa/AP/Libkos
So the question again arises: why should President Zelenskyy be willing to negotiate with the Putin regime?
Preparations or part of the planned offensive?
The dam explosion is at the center of the debate over whether Ukraine’s long-awaited offensive has begun. It’s not obvious to me that the main attack is already underway.
We’ll know the main attack has started as soon as we see large armored formations attacking.
ben hodgesLieutenant General A.D.
I see clear operations that must give offensive form. Numerous military activities can be seen in many places from Belgorod to the Black Sea coast.
In my opinion, however, these are preparatory measures. They also serve to confuse the Russian General Staff as to the exact date, time and place that Ukrainian forces will actually attack. We’ll know the main attack has started as soon as we see large armored formations attacking.
It seems likely to me that the Ukrainian supreme commander, General Valeriy Zalushnyi, will have to meet three conditions before deploying the large armored formations.
On the one hand, it needs sufficient combat capability (armored brigades with tanks, armored vehicles, engineers, artillery, anti-aircraft defenses and logistics) to overcome Russian linear defenses and carry out the tasks assigned to it. One of them is probably cutting the Russian-occupied “land bridge” in southeastern Crimea and protecting the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant.
Second, he wants to make sure that Russian defenses and logistics are sufficiently weakened, that the Russian rear, supply and transport routes are sufficiently disrupted, and that the Russian leadership is sufficiently confused about the purpose and timing of the offensive.
And third, the ground must be dry enough for hundreds of heavy armored vehicles to move. I think Ukraine are very close to the goal on three points.
At the same time, one can read Russian success stories and widespread skepticism about what Ukraine can achieve with its offensive. I don’t trust any reports coming from the Russian side. Ukrainians are very disciplined in protecting their own information. And they are also very good at controlling coverage. Soon we will know more which representations are correct.
How Crimea can be liberated
On condition that the West provides the Ukrainian troops with everything they need, in particular long-range precision weapons, I trust Ukraine to liberate Crimea by the end of this summer, by the end of August.
For that, she must isolate Crimea and cut off supplies. I think this is one of the goals of the offensive. Then the Russian armed forces will no longer be able to keep Crimea. Long-range precision weapons capable of hitting Sevastopol, Saky, Jankoy and other strategic locations would give Ukraine that capability.
The Key to Victory How Ukraine Can Recapture Crimea and What Weapons It Needs
In fact, the Russians dug hundreds of kilometers of trenches with bunkers, minefields, anti-tank ditches and “dragon’s teeth” obstacle belts. But those defenses are only as good as the soldiers manning those trenches and defending the obstacles.
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I’m not impressed with the fighting skills that Russians show in most places. And the bitter clashes between various Russian leaders, from Prigozhin to Kadyrov, illustrate the lack of cohesion on the Russian side. I’m sure the Ukrainian armed forces also know how to use this.
(curated by Christoph von Marschall)