Weather: EL NINO is back! Let’s see what it is and how it can affect the climate of 2023, even in Italy
El Nino 2023 is back, what impact also in Italy?El Niño is officially back and is projected to produce extreme weather events through late 2023, from tropical cyclones circling vulnerable islands in the Pacific to torrential rains in South America and drought in Australia.
After three years of the La Nina climate model, which often lowers global temperatures slightly, the warmer El Niño is back in action, according to a Thursday, June 8 release from the US National Oceanic and US Climate Prediction Center Atmospheric Administration issued a warning.
El Nino is formed in unusually warm waters in the eastern Pacificnear the coast of South America, and is often associated with a slowing or reversal of easterly trade winds.
“Weak El Nino conditions occurred in May as above-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific rose,” the statement said.
The last time an El Niño happened was in 2016, the world experienced the warmest year on record. Along with warming due to climate change 2023 or 2024 could reach new highs.
Most experts turn to two agencies to confirm El Niño: NOAA and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). The two agencies use different standards for explaining El Niño, with the Australian definition being a little more stringent.
There NOAA Declare an El Nino when sea temperatures in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific were 0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9 Fahrenheit) higher than normal for the previous month and have continued or are expected to continue for five consecutive consecutive three-month periods. The agency is also noting a weakening of trade winds and cloud cover.
There BOM extension Australia needs warmer temperatures, with key regions in the eastern Pacific being 0.8°C (1.5°F) warmer than average.
Tuesday 6 June 2023, theAustralia has published its own bulletindetection of a 70% chance of El Niño developing this year.
NOAA He said there was one 56% chance of this El Niño peaking (usually during the northern hemisphere winter), It will be a strong event, meaning that sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific are at least 1.5°C warmer than normal. This could result in greater impacts globally, from droughts to hurricanes.
Those with their warmest waters near the west coast of South America are considered events in the eastern Pacific, such as the powerful El Nino of 1997–98. The other surge occurred in the central Pacific near the equator around Hawaii, as did the last event in 2015–16. Depending on where the water is warmer, weather anomalies can be more extreme, making certain regions drier or wetter.
Some forecasting models predict this It’s going to be a Central Pacific El Niño. The phenomenon could lead Effects also on the European climate and on Italyand generally favors aSummer hotter than normal, but also at times rainy and stormy as we were unfortunately able to determine in the first few days of June. Unlike winter, the presence of El Nino can cause fluctuations in precipitation and temperatures. In general, southern Europe, including Italy, tends to have milder and rainier winters than usual.
But what impact will EL NINO have on agriculture in the rest of the world?
The first signs of hot and dry climate The damage caused by El Nino is threatening food producers across Asia, while American farmers are anticipating heavier summer rains due to the meteorological phenomenon to mitigate the effects of the severe drought.
El Nino could lead to one Winter crop production down 34% compared to record highs in Australiaand also have an impact on the Palm oil and rice production in Indonesia, Malaysia – which supply 80% of the world’s palm oil – e.g Thailand. In India, a country that largely relies on monsoon rains for its summer harvest, the effects of El Nino could be offset by the Indian Ocean dipole, or Indian Nino, but lower-than-normal rainfall is expected in northwestern parts of the country.