The consequences of the failed Ukrainian attack on Malaya Tokmachka.
Via social media
The Ukrainian army’s 33rd Mechanized Brigade and 47th Assault Brigade assembled their Leopard tanks and Bradley fighting vehicles for a powerful attack on Russian positions two miles south of Mala Tokmachka in southern Ukraine’s Zaporizhia Oblast on or before Thursday morning.
A dense minefield lay between the Ukrainians and their objective. And the Ukrainians knew it. They deployed at least one IMR-2 Engineer Vehicle and one Leopard 2R Breakthrough Vehicle in hopes of plowing away the mines and clearing the way for at least one company of 47th Brigade M-2A2 Bradleys and some attached Leopard 2A6s from the 33rd Brigade.
The engineers failed – either because the minefield was too dense or because Russian helicopters or artillery interrupted their efforts to clear the mines. Shortly after, the IMR-2, a rare Leopard 2A6 and up to nine Bradleys were piled up outdoors. The surviving crew and passengers were defenseless under fire and suffered damage. They got out – and took their dead and wounded with them.
The attack – a so-called “breakthrough” against prepared enemy fortifications – failed. This does not mean that the Ukrainians have failed in their broader attempt to advance south into Russian-held Zaporizhia, a prerequisite for an armored breakthrough, which in turn is a prerequisite for a large-scale liberation of occupied southern Ukraine.
But it’s a setback. And a potentially serious problem if the Ukrainians are unable to salvage and repair some of the damaged vehicles. So far, Ukraine’s allies have pledged only 21 Leopard 2A6 long-barreled long-arms aircraft and 109 missile-armed M-2s to the war effort. The 33rd Brigade and 47th Brigade battle group lost nearly five percent of every vehicle shipment in a single morning.
The context is important. Breakthroughs are the most difficult and usually most costly phase of any tank offensive. What we are witnessing near Mala Tokmachka could be one of the most painful battles of this phase of Russia’s 15-month-long all-out war on Russia for both sides. But especially for the attacking Ukrainians.
Thursday’s operation could have turned out worse for the Ukrainian army. Part of the attacking force withdrew with intact vehicles. The crew of a Leopard 2R burglary vehicle have previously abandoned their heavy-duty British-made mine plow drive it off the battlefield.
If conditions improve for the Ukrainians they should be able to tow and repair the Leopard 2 and some of the Bradleys. They have already managed to fix the problem at least one battle-damaged Leopard 2A4, underscoring the overall robustness of the German-made tank. That the Leopard 2R escaped is particularly good news: Finland only produced six of the vehicles that broke through – and turned them all over to the 47th Brigade.
But the two-brigade assault force must change tactics, just as the nearby 37th Marine Brigade did in its own raids on Russian defenses. Russian fortifications south of Mala Tokmachka –manned by The Russian 291st and 70th motor rifle regiments, the 22nd and 45th Spetsnaz brigades, and a reserve unit are clearly more imposing than Ukrainian intelligence has suggested.
The 33rd and 47th Brigades were to increase their mine clearance efforts or find a way to bypass the minefields. With Russian attack helicopters playing a role in Thursday’s failed attack, closer air defense support – possibly from mobile Cheetah guns – would also benefit Ukraine’s brigades. As always, Ukrainian artillerymen should aim for Russia’s own big guns.
Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive in 2023 is only six days old. The debacle of the 33rd and 47th Brigades near Mala Tokmachka could be Kiev’s first major defeat in the counteroffensive, but it won’t be the last. In any case, tactical losses do not necessarily lead to strategic defeat.
“The loss of equipment – including Western equipment – early in the counteroffensive is not indicative of the future progress of Ukraine’s counteroffensive,” the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, DC stated. “It is important not to exaggerate the impact. “Initial casualties of Western or other equipment, particularly in penetrating battles against prepared defensive positions.”
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