According to Sven Biscop, an analyst at the Egmont Institute, with the war in Ukraine Russia has embarked on a path that weakens it on the international stage.
The destruction of the Kakhovka Dam marks a new escalation of the war in Ukraine. This destruction led to massive flooding. More than 40,000 people are threatened, many have been evacuated, others have drowned. It is a humanitarian and ecological catastrophe.
Euronews interviewed Sven Biscop, director of the Global Europe program at the Egmont Institute.
euronews:
Members of the Russian opposition in exile assert that if the war in Ukraine continues, Vladimir Putin will sooner or later lose power. Do you share this analysis?
Sven Biscop:
Of course we can hope for that, but so far we see very few signs. And it seems that the war still enjoys strong popular support. That may change, but for now, that’s how it is. It is also difficult to imagine who could take the initiative to overthrow (Vladimir) Putin, because that would obviously be a big risk. And I think the only ones who can do that are those who control the armed forces. So I think we’d better base our strategy on the most likely scenario for now, which is that the regime stays in power and the war continues.
euronews:
In your last analysis you raise the question of a possible new world order. What might a post-Putin Russia look like from a geopolitical perspective?
Sven Biscop:
Putin, of course, significantly weakened Russia because I think we live in a multipolar world. There are several major powers and they are trying to keep their options open and work together, cooperating but also competing with all at the same time in an ever-changing constellation. What you don’t want to do is limit your options. And that is exactly what Vladimir Putin did, he completely alienated the United States and the European Union. His only option is therefore China. Whatever happens, Russia is in a much weaker position. One can imagine that Putin’s successor will likely remain an authoritarian leader, perhaps more pragmatic.
euronews:
Can Europe benefit from what will happen later with the rapprochement of Ukraine and Moldova?
Sven Biscop:
That’s good news. We can say that Western structures are being consolidated in Kosovo, that Finland and Sweden are joining NATO, or that Denmark is giving up its exemptions. But of course that doesn’t mean there won’t be a challenge to ensure we continue to provide military and economic support to Moldova and Ukraine. But even these two countries need reform before we show them that they are ready to join the EU.