Getty/HuffPost edit
Donald Trump dominates the Republican primary ahead of Mike Pence, Ron DeSantis and six other candidates.
UNITED STATES – A year and a half before the US presidential election, the number of Republican candidates is multiplying. After Donald Trump, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley or Senator Tim Scott, former Vice President Mike Pence and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum officially entered the arena on Wednesday, June 7th. The day before, Chris Christie, a former Donald Trump ally who had become one of his harshest critics, entered the race.
So far there are ten running for the White House. Soon there could be more: The Mayor of Miami, Francis Suarez, has also expressed the desire to take part in the fight. But the number of contenders may change before the first debate on Aug. 23, where everyone will try to shine, and the first primary to be held in Iowa in early 2024.
Screenshot Thirty-five
Five Thirty Eight poll of Republican primary candidates as of June 6, 2023.
That high count is a boon for Donald Trump, who — despite one new indictment and 37 indictments — currently dominates the polls by more than 30 points over his main rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Mike Pence, who dumped Trump after the attack on Congress in January 2021 and whose campaign video is careful not to mention or show his former mentor, sits a distant third with about 5% of the vote.
I believe in the American people and I believe that God is not finished with America. Together we can bring this country back, and the best days are yet to come for the greatest nation on earth! 🇺🇸 #Pence2024 https://t.co/A8EkqgCDAm
—Mike Pence (@Mike_Pence)
“Pure Trumpists make up a third (35%) of the Republican electorate, or about 15% of the American electorate. That’s little. The problem is that the remaining 65% are very heterogeneous in terms of why they want an alternative to Trump,” explains Jérôme Viala-Gaudfroy, lecturer at Sciences Po Saint-Germain-en-Laye and specialist in states, to HuffPost. This majority of voters will therefore line up in small groups behind the other candidates who will never be able to compete with the billionaire.
“There is a chance against DeSantis”
In addition to his loyal constituency, the former White House tenant benefits from the primary system. In fact, in most cases, the residents of each state vote for their favorite candidate in a single ballot, and whoever comes first wins all of that state’s delegates. Mechanically, the more competitors there are, the less a high score is required to win. Donald Trump, alone against everyone, has an advantage “even with 35% of the votes”, Jérôme Viala-Gaudfroy continued.
But one unknown remains, the American politics specialist warns: “We must not forget that very few voters travel to vote in the primary.” In 2016 and 2020, only 25% of Republicans went to the polls. Are the Trumpists being motivated? Will another candidate succeed in mobilizing his base? »
In view of this observation, how can the strong increase in candidates be explained? “Everyone thinks that if DeSantis is still behind the former president in the polls, there’s a chance.” Everyone hopes to win back some of the electorate to be a viable alternative,” analyzes Jérôme Viala-Gaudfroy. Mike Pence, for example, will attract evangelical Christians who will then turn their backs on Florida’s very conservative governor, who was then thought to be the only one who could beat the real estate magnate.
One goal: (a) Defeat Donald Trump
Other strategists are trying to gain visibility among the general public and even Donald Trump. If elected, he could elect former presidential candidates to be vice presidents or members of his government. Such was the case with Chris Christie in 2016. The New Jersey governor failed in the primary and then became a close adviser to Donald Trump. Before becoming a highly critical rival as part of the 2024 presidential election.
I’m running for President of the United States because the truth still counts. We need leaders who are willing to stand up and tell it like it is. That’s what this campaign is about.
—Chris Christie (@GovChristie)
Conversely, prominent figures simply chose not to run to get rid of the former president, such as Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, who never endorsed him.
In an interview with Portal, he also expressed his concern. “I have the impression that we are making the same mistake as in 2016,” he said, citing Donald Trump’s victory, which was made possible with 17 candidates (a record), 11 of whom took part in the election. And to affirm that it is “better for the party to have a small number of candidates with one or two strong candidates than ten or more who do not attract attention”.
New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu was more explicit in a June 5 Washington Post editorial: “I’m not proclaiming myself a 2024 nominee. Defeating Trump is more important.” to be heard.
See also on The HuffPost:
You cannot view this content because:
- With your subscription you have rejected cookies related to third-party content. You can therefore not play our videos, which require third-party cookies to function.
- You are using an ad blocker. We advise you to disable it to be able to access our videos.
If neither of these two cases applies to you, contact us at [email protected].