Recordbreaking warming of ocean waters could herald a season with more storms than originally expected, and scientists are warning an unusually early seasonal hurricane could hit by the middle of this week. With the name “Bret”, It would be the third tropical storm of 2023 and a potential threat to the Caribbean.
A forecast by the US National Hurricane Center assumes that there are The extreme weather event has an 80% chance of forming in the next 48 hours and 90% this week. Longterm estimates are that the Lesser Antilles and Leeward Islands in the Caribbean could be affected in six to seven days.
The phenomenon would be due to a tropical disturbance a thousand miles west of the coast of Africa that was expected to organize in the coming days and would likely result in a storm in the Atlantic Ocean. Weather models predict that this system will reach hurricane strength. Its impacts could include high seas, torrential rain and strong winds of up to 39 km/h.
Scientists say tropical storms in June, while common, are typically “homegrown,” forming in the foothills of cold fronts in the Gulf of Mexico. A classic system forming off the coast of Africa this month is rare.
A belowaverage hurricane season was forecast in early 2023 due to the onset of El Niño a natural phenomenon warming Pacific waters and bringing strong highaltitude winds across the tropical Atlantic. This scenario would reduce the likelihood of storms forming, however, most weather services seem to have jumped ahead in this regard and an average or even above average season is expected, mainly due to the water heating.
Recently, the heat in the ocean has shocked meteorologists and scientists trying to understand why. Brian McNoldy, a tropical climate researcher at the University of Miami, tweeted that the high Atlantic temperature was “extraordinary” and the chance of seeing it was only “1 in 256,000.”