Donald Trump’s unprecedented campaign, from court to rally

What Rick’s Café was to the exiles in Casablanca, the Versailles Café is to Miami’s more ingrained Cuban-American community. The restaurant par excellence. The place to see and be seen, where the action happens, where life’s big events are celebrated – christenings, golden weddings, quinceañera debuts. Where, among guava cakes, fufú con masitas and gold-framed photos of vintage celebrities, guests dream of traveling to a Cuba free of the communist legacy of Fidel Castro and his political heirs.

Going there was the first thing Donald Trump did as he exited a city courthouse Tuesday after pleading guilty to all 37 counts related to classified documents he had at Mar-a-Lago, his Florida home and private club. kept on pleading not guilty.

The former president expected a hero’s reception and got it: those in attendance rushed to greet him, take photos with him, pray for him and sing him “Happy Birthday” the day before his 77th birthday. “Food for everyone!” he exclaimed smiling between applause and handshake after hand. “This is rigged… We live in a rigged country, a corrupt country, a country without borders… we’re in decline,” he asserted, reiterating one of his most enduring electoral arguments. Other supporters crowded the doors, hoping to see and speak to their political idol.

The movement was calculated to the millimeter. In true Trump fashion, it was about showing that subpoenas – no matter how serious – don’t affect you. That he is still in control and that he continues to have the support of his followers. That, of course, he’s not considering retiring from the White House race (US law allows him to continue even if he’s indicted) and that he’s faced with double standards. Others would have done their best to remain as unnoticed as possible when exiting the courthouse. Former President, no. He took the opportunity to turn it into a political rally at one of the locations in the city that he knew would resonate more with a public for whom President Joe Biden is a dangerous socialist.

A strategy he would repeat a few hours later at his golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey. There he asserted that the allegation, the second in three months, was “election interference and another attempt to rig and steal the route to the White House.”

This tactic is being repeated over and over again given the variety of cases pending against him and could lead to new charges in the coming months. Trump is a firm believer in the principle of “talk about me, even if it’s bad.” And in a campaign that promises constant comings and goings from rallies to courts and vice versa, he has proposed turning his court appearances into acts of propaganda. He does not want to portray himself as a suspect in serious crimes against democracy and national security, but as the innocent victim of a political witch hunt launched by a politicized justice system and rival Democrats with autocratic leanings.

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It’s the message he continuously spreads on his social network, Truth Social, and in his campaign emails to raise funds. “They want to take away my FREEDOM because I will NEVER let them take your FREEDOM from you,” he typed in all caps on Friday.

The pending cases are varied: alleged obstruction of justice, falsehood and violation of the Espionage Act for storing dozens of boxes of classified information in Mar-a-Lago without official permission; falsifying accounting records to pay a porn actress; Suspected intent on rigging election results and his role in the events that led to a horde of his supporters storming the Capitol on January 6, 2021 to prevent Congress from confirming Biden’s election victory. In addition, writer E. Jean Carroll, to whom Trump is being ordered to pay $5 million after a New York jury found the former president responsible for sexual abuse and defamation against her, has received legal approval to seek higher compensation. The case is in the appeal phase.

Little seems to matter to the Republican voter. To the 25% of US pollsters who, at every poll, unconditionally support whatever party’s candidate, whatever their name and whatever they do, start a war in Iraq under false assumptions, or call it “have a nice day.” that of the attack on the Capitol. Trump gets more than 50% of the vote in the Republican primary and is tens of percentage points behind his immediate supporter, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, according to polls. His campaign asserts he has raised more than $6.6 million following the new allegation [unos seis millones de euros].

A poll by public broadcaster NPR provides unambiguous data: 64% of party voters insist Trump is their nominee. 83% of respondents think the former White House tenant shouldn’t give up on his presidential aspirations. This poll shows that support for the former president has risen eight percentage points since February in pro-Party Republican and independent ranks; In that group, those who believe the tycoon did nothing wrong are up five points since March.

This benefit can be even greater if your subpoenas continue to be wasteful. It’s the “talk about me” effect: the more people talk about Trump and his legal troubles, the less room there is for the rest of his Republican opponents, who have almost covert voting intentions.

“Climb a mountain”

The former president “continues to hold three significant advantages that DeSantis and the rest of his opponents will find difficult to overcome,” writes analyst Natalie Jackson on the respected blog Sabato’s Crystal Ball. As he explains, the candidate is “winning majorities in the primary.” , “Republicans think he’s the best opponent against Biden” — 62% believe he would defeat the current president in November 2024, according to a poll for CBS television. and “Republicans would rather have a candidate they agree with than one they have a chance of winning.”

When Republican politicians criticize Trump in light of these figures, most keep them to themselves. To the public, they banded together around the former president. From House Speaker Kevin McCarthy to DeSantis himself, they’ve endorsed the speech denouncing double standards in the judiciary, but in the case of classified documents, for example, they don’t mention that Trump’s Vice President Mike Pence used the material he published in his house in Indiana, he promptly returned and no charges were brought against him.

Although that could change. A small number of Republican politicians have made some unflattering comments about the classified documents case: one of his main rivals, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, called him “incredibly reckless” about national security. Pence describes the allegations as “very serious”.

Everything will depend on how the campaign unfolds, the legal adventures of the former White House tenant and the results of the Republican primary. The candidate who most seduces this base will not necessarily be the one who inspires the most trust among the general public.

This audience is clearly more skeptical. According to the NPR poll, about 56% (87% Democrats, 58% Independents) believe Trump should withdraw from the campaign. About 50% of bipartisan voters believe the former president engaged in some form of illegal conduct, up nine percentage points since March, before the first indictment in New York.

While his legal and political panorama is settled, we can expect more coups like the one at the Café Versailles from Trump. Preferably with better results for the attending public. Despite the restaurant offering “Food for All!”, the former president left the restaurant after 10 minutes, reportedly without paying anything, according to the digital Miami New Times.

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