While there hasn’t been a shortage of disappointing teams in the 2023 major league baseball season so far, one season overall is “outstanding” when it comes to falling short of preseason expectations. That would be the St. Louis Cardinals.
The Cardinals were widely expected to be in 2022 with a 93-win season and a National League Central title under their belt and a mix of veteran starters like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado and promising young talents like Lars Nootbaar, Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman bring back Barge to another divisional title. The question was how far they would get in the playoffs, not if they would even get there.
As we near July, St. Louis wins by a clip of just .411. If this continues, it will be the franchise’s worst all-season win rate since 1918(!). This is an unusual situation for a club that has not lost a season since 2007 and has not made the MLB top 10 draft since 1998. However, the current reality is that so is the case at lackluster NL Central. With the Cardinals still having an extra wild card in play in 2023, their chances of making it into the postseason are slim. Right now the SportsLine projection system only gives them a 17% Chance to reach the playoff field.
All of this raises the possibility that baseball division president John Mozeliak will pull off a sell-off by the August 1 close. While it’s not likely that there will be a major collapse, the team’s rather slim chances of being relevant at the track mean that some sort of turnaround towards 2024 or perhaps beyond is both likely and appropriate. So what might such an anti-cardinalist approach to the deadline look like? Let’s explore.
The obvious trade candidates
If the Cardinals want to shorten the current season without hurting their chances next year, they will look to trade players in their running years and those not deemed particularly important to the team’s fate in 2024. Walk Year Trade nominees include left-hander Jordan Montgomery, right-hander Jack Flaherty, and right-hander relief players Jordan Hicks and Chris Stratton. Yes, franchise legend Adam Wainwright is also technically in his running year, but the Cardinals won’t put him in another team’s uniform for the first time in his MLB career just months before his retirement. Of these, Montgomery would likely score the largest return package. Hicks could also be attractive as a powerful relief option for a contender thanks to his huge fastball and far better results since changing his position on the surface and changing his warm-up routine. Speaking of which, Hicks made two saves during the weekend series against the Mets.
Other players in this category include shortstop Paul DeJong, a superb fielder with the occasional pop. He has club options for 2024 and 2025 that are unlikely to be exercised regardless of who hires him after August 1. There’s Tyler O’Neill, too. He is on the 60-day injured list with lower back problems and could be an outsider when it comes to the Cardinals’ outfield being crowded when healthy. If he returns to the active squad in time to get something done before the deadline, he could be promoted. Injuries and inconsistencies diminish his worth, but he still has the tools he can dream of. O’Neill is not eligible for free agency until after the 2024 season. There have been rumors for some time that the Yankees might be a good match for O’Neill. In that regard, it’s worth remembering that the Yanks and Cards teamed up in the remarkable trade last season that brought flycatcher Harrison Bader to the Bronx and sent the aforementioned Montgomery to St. Louis.
Other options
If Mozeliak and company move towards a more profound reboot, the above names could be joined by others of the non-earth-shattering variety that will remain under the team’s control beyond 2023. Tommy Edman or Brendan Donovan, both of whom can fill multiple premium positions offering significant field value at all positions, could be moved (but probably not both). Occasional closer Ryan Helsley is another interesting candidate if he gets over his forearm problems in time. One of the toughest pitchers in all of baseball, he has recent streak as a lockdown and late-inning relief player. There could also be a market for Steven Matz as a backup player, but the Cardinals would likely have to pocket some money to pay off the outstanding debt on his contract.
The long shots
It’s hard to imagine the Cardinals parting ways with their corner-infield cornerstones ahead of the trading day, but if a thorough rebuild is the chosen path, then yes, we should consider the possibility that Goldschmidt and Arenado will be sent off .
Everyone has full trade ban protection, which is an obstacle, but not necessarily an impossible one. In Goldschmidt’s case, he’s still at a high level with the racquet, and he has a reputation for being an excellent leader and having a True North-type clubhouse presence. He’s also signed until 2024, which means he’s not on lease, but he’s also not signed until his late thirties (which would be a problem for a first baseman, even one as big as Goldschmidt). It would have a market and would likely bring the Cardinals an impressive return.
As for Arenado, the situation is a bit more complex. He’s signed until 2027 at a reasonable price, and the Rockies, his former team, still account for a sizeable chunk of his remaining commitment. After a slow start to 2023, while he’s regained his level of performance, there are serious concerns he’s slacking off with the glove. Arenado is not particularly old at 32, but when it comes to starting the relegation phase, the outfield player is often the first choice. The best advanced metrics support this pullback on Arenado’s part, and the possibility that this pullback is genuine is part of the calculus when it comes to trading it. All things considered, he would undoubtedly have a market.
Again, such a trajectory seems unlikely for St. Louis in the extreme, given that a 2024 rebound is entirely possible given investment in rotational aid. That means if the fighting continues, the front office may decide that a major rebuild to build a long-term core around Walker, Gorman, and others is in order. Most likely, however, as of deadline, a struggling Cardinals team will decide to shed some talent from the running year and start over for 2024 rather than cut the roster.
However, being the NL Central, the Cardinals have a long run of winning a role in the division race again, and that could make them buyers before the deadline. The next month or so will bring clarity for St. Louis, as well as a number of teams that do not yet have a clear schedule.