- Tropical storm Cindy formed in the central Atlantic.
- Tropical Storm Bret arrives in the Caribbean after reaching hurricane strength.
- These formations are unusual for June as most storms develop in the Gulf or off the east coast.
Tropical Storm Cindy, a second rare tropical storm in the deep tropics in June, has formed, while Tropical Storm Bret is bringing strong winds to the Caribbean.
Tropical Storm Cindy forms
Tropical Storm Cindy is moving west-northwest in the central Atlantic. At the moment it poses no immediate threat to the landfall and is expected to turn northwest over the next few days. If it stays on this northwest path, it would pass north of the Leeward Islands early next week. But interests in the Leeward Islands should continue to watch this forecast for the next few days.
Cindy is expected to evolve into a moderate tropical storm over the next few days.
Current status and forecast path
(The red shaded area shows the potential trajectory of the tropical cyclone center. It is important to note that the impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) of any tropical cyclone usually extend beyond the projected trajectory spread.)
The latest on Bret
Here’s where Bret is right now: Bret’s center is now penetrating the eastern Caribbean.
Wind gusts of up to 69 miles per hour blew in St. Lucia and up to 52 miles per hour at Grantley Adams International Airport at the southern end of Barbados east of the island’s capital Bridgetown. Tropical storms also occur in Martinique.
Bret’s worst weather is likely to come shortly and after its center has crossed the islands, as wind shear sweeps much of its thunderstorm activity east of its center.
Bret will continue on his current path: Bret’s intensity eased on Thursday after reaching hurricane strength on Wednesday night.
Bret will continue his western course through the weekend.
It is expected to weaken in the eastern Caribbean, where it will encounter increasingly hostile winds and somewhat dry air. The National Hurricane Center’s prediction is for Bret to dissipate sometime this weekend.
Current status and forecast path
(The red shaded area shows the potential trajectory of the tropical cyclone center. It is important to note that the impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) of any tropical cyclone usually extend beyond the projected trajectory spread.)
Bret is a threat to the Lesser Antilles. The storm will bring strong gusts of wind, heavy rain and dangerous waves to the Lesser Antilles through early Friday.
Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected in parts of the Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south to St. Vincent and the Grenadines, including Barbados, with a potential for as much as 10 inches, according to the National Hurricane Center. The heavy rains could lead to flash floods, especially in higher areas.
Forecast Rainfall
(This should be interpreted as a general outlook of where the heaviest rain might fall and shift based on the tropical cyclone’s projected path. Higher amounts may occur if rain bands stall over a period of a few hours.)
Otherwise, tropical storm warnings apply to Dominica, St. Lucia, Martinique, Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
Warnings are issued when tropical storm conditions (winds over 40 miles per hour) are expected in the warning area within 36 hours.
clocks, warnings
(A warning will be issued if a tropical storm or hurricane is possible within 48 hours. A warning will be issued if these conditions are expected within 36 hours.)
Bret will not threaten the mainland United States as forecasts predict spread in the Caribbean. Some of that moisture could eventually make its way to Central America.
The National Hurricane Center began issuing forecast warnings for that system late Monday morning, as there were enough low winds and thunderstorms in its vicinity for it to be classified as a tropical cyclone.
Perspective: Two Strange Tropical Storms and How They Happened
Record ocean heat provides fuel. One factor that contributed to Bret and Cindy’s development is the warmth of the ocean. All other factors being equal, warmer seawater may provide more fuel for tropical systems to intensify.
Lying across the Atlantic strip between Africa and the Lesser Antilles is an area known as the “Major Developing Region” (MDR) and is where many powerful hurricanes originate. The sea temperatures there have broke the records from mid-June. Water temperatures near Cabo Verde and on the western points of the Central Tropical Atlantic are generally a low 80°C, sufficient for tropical development.
WPLG-TV hurricane expert Michael Lowry noted that these sea surface temperatures are more typical of the heart of the hurricane season — early September — than June. Water temperatures near this system are 2 to 5 degrees above average.
That’s partly because lighter than usual trade winds of a weaker than the average Bermuda-Azores highsays Brian McNoldy, tropical scientist at the University of Miami.
This is an odd place for June storm development. Only about 6% of all storms occur in June.
Of the June storms that form, the vast majority originate in the Gulf of Mexico or just off the east coast.
Only three of the 79 June storms since the 19th century have formed east of the Lesser Antilles, according to the NOAA database.
Additionally, there are no records of two simultaneous active storms in June east of the Antilles. Therefore, the formation of the two tropical storms Bret and Cindy in June is unprecedented for this part of the Atlantic basin.
Two of them were founded in the last six years. What would later become Hurricane Elsa became a tropical storm just hours before the end of June 2021. Tropical Storm Bret in 2017 was a short-lived storm that eventually fizzled out after drenching Trinidad and Tobago. Tropical Storm Ana in 1979 was the only other such June MDR storm in NOAA’s database.
Tracks of all tropical storms, subtropical storms, and hurricanes in June from 1842 to 2022. Few formed in June in the main developing region between the Lesser Antilles and Africa.
(NOAA/NHC)
Jonathan Erdman is Weather.com’s chief weather forecaster and has been an incurable weather freak since a tornado narrowly missed his childhood home in Wisconsin when he was 7 years old. Keep following him Twitter and Facebook.
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