Vladimir Putin has been significantly weakened by the Wagner mercenary group’s notable mutiny, experts say – although the militia leader announced on Saturday that he had agreed to halt his march on Moscow and would himself go into Belarusian exile.
Yevgeny Prigozhin’s uprising was the biggest challenge for Putin in his more than two decades in power.
It fizzled out on Saturday – but not before Prigozhin’s men took the southern city of Rostov-on-Don and got within 120 miles of Moscow.
Under the agreement, announced by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Prigozhin will go to neighboring Belarus and drop charges of inciting an armed uprising.
The government said it would not prosecute the participating fighters either.
Prigozhin’s decision to drop the challenge to Putin’s power remains a mystery, and speculation abounded on Saturday night as to why he had caved in and what the intense and surreal uprising was all about.
But although Putin appeared to have won that skirmish, Russia analysts said the 70-year-old – who has been president or prime minister since 1999 – was wounded in the battle.
Garry Kasparov, the world chess champion who has become one of Vladimir Putin’s harshest critics, said the Russian leader was “humiliated” by Prigozhin’s push
Vladimir Putin was severely weakened by the mutiny of Yevgeny Prigozhin (right), analysts said
Kasparov said Putin was deeply shaken by Prigozhin’s offensive
Garry Kasparov, the world chess champion who has become one of the leading leaders of Russia’s democratic opposition, said Putin was “humiliated” by Prigozhin.
“The game ended in Putin’s worst humiliation – a flight for his life from Moscow when Prigozhin’s army was hundreds of miles away,” he told CNN.
One of several planes used by Putin for official visits took off from Moscow at 2:15 p.m. local time, according to Flight Radar, which tracks planes in real time. Many speculated that Putin fled Moscow for St. Petersburg, but Peskov, his spokesman, insisted he was still “working in the Kremlin.”
Kasparov added: “Many of Putin’s top officials were looking for cover.” “A dictator relies on his aura of invincibility.”
Sergey Sanovich, a Hoover Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution who specializes in disinformation and autocracies, said Putin has never looked so weak.
He said the need for Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko to negotiate with Prigozhin on his behalf was a sign of how weakened he was.
“Prigozhin makes a bold move and gets away with it, possibly with more wins,” Sanovich said.
“Lukashenko saves the day.” Putin was reduced to a bystander who complained on TV and allowed his top generals to be humiliated.
“Never in a quarter of a century has Putin looked so ineffective and unhappy.”
A local resident walks past members of the Wagner group in Rostov-on-Don on Saturday
Alexander Lukashenko, the President of Belarus is seen with Putin in Sochi June 9. Lukashenko negotiated a deal with Prigozhin
Sanovich’s view of Lukashenko’s involvement was shared by Michael McFaul, Barack Obama’s Russia adviser from 2009 to 2011, who then became US ambassador to Moscow.
McFaul tweeted, “Putin couldn’t control a mercenary force he created and ran by his pal.” He had to rely, of all things, on Lukashenko to negotiate a deal with a man he had called a traitor just hours before .
“These are signs of real weakness, not strength.”
He added: “What weakened Putin’s rise to power?” His disastrous war in Ukraine.
“The longer the war lasts, the weaker Putin’s regime becomes.”
“Those who want to prevent the collapse of the Russian state (e.g. Xi) should urge Putin to end his war.”
Another prominent critic, Mikhail Khodorkovsky – Russia’s once-richest man who became a leading opposition figure in exile after Putin jailed him for 10 years – said he felt Putin’s judgment was clouded.
Mikhail Khordokowski, who was jailed by Putin for 10 years, said the Russian president was unrealistic
A Russian police officer guards Red Square near the Kremlin as forces prepare to attack before Prigozhin’s forces spectacularly withdrew
Before Prigozhin’s shocking testimony, machine-gun outposts are being hastily set up on the outskirts of Moscow
Many have speculated that the COVID isolation has removed the strongman even further from reality, driving him insane about reality.
Khodorkovsky said he may be overly relying on toadies rather than honest advisers and completely misjudged Prigozhin.
“Lately, Putin has been making one mistake after another, and Prigozhin could become a crucial mistake for him,” he said.
“If you’re in power for twenty years and everyone tells you what a genius you are, who knows what will happen to your consciousness.”
Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said that “Putin” underestimated the threat posed by Prigozhin.
“He thought he was completely dependent and loyal.”
People gathered to say goodbye to Prigozhin, and one man even reached through the window of his car to shake hands with the exiled Wagner leader
A fan of the Wagner boss even managed to take a selfie with him when the disgraced mercenary leader was expelled from Russia
As Prigozhin’s troops retreated from Rostov, tanks were withdrawn from the southern city of Rostov
Crowds lined the streets and cheered as the private military company withdrew its troops from Rostov
Huge crowds gathered in Rostov-on-Don as Wagner tanks rolled out of town
Putin loyalists downplayed the threat, insisting that Prigozhin would never realistically take on the Kremlin.
Sergey Markov told CNN that Prigozhin was “extremely aggressive” but never posed a threat to Putin.
“They support Prigozhin’s fight against the Ukrainian army, but not against Vladimir Putin,” said Markov, claiming that Putin’s popularity is now “about 80%”.
Markov said it was “really good news” that Prigozhin ordered the Wagnerian mercenary columns to deviate from an advance towards Moscow, adding that “many Muscovites are glad about it”.
But Ivo Daalder, the former US ambassador to NATO, warned that the conflict is far from over.
“Remember, Gorbachev survived a coup in 1991.” But four months later he was without power. The coup underscored its essential weakness.
“Putin will probably survive for now.”
“But the last 24 hours raise serious questions about his hold on power.’ Watch this room.’