Yevgeny Prigozhin’s uprising against Moscow will have raised alarms in China and could throw a spanner in the works of the “borderless” strategic partnership between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, experts said on Sunday.
After a 24-hour armed insurgency in which Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenaries took control of parts of the southern city of Rostov-on-Don and sent a troop convoy hundreds of kilometers north toward Moscow, analysts said Beijing will realize Putin had failed Keeping the mercenary in check keeps the boss in check because it smacks of “incompetence”.
“China will view the recent events in Russia with great concern,” said Rana Mitter, professor of history and politics of modern China at Oxford University. “In particular, they are likely to have fresh doubts about how united Russia’s armed forces are and about Putin’s overall capacity to control his regime.”
Sari Arho Havren, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) specializing in Chinese foreign policy, said: “Xi likely sees the background to the Wagner mutiny as grave incompetence.” The uprising clearly damaged Putin’s reputation — and the most important consequence is how weak Russia’s power structure now appears in the eyes of others. The fear of chaos and instability is in the DNA of the Chinese Communist Party.”
Appearing weak and hurt in front of Beijing would be a severe blow to Moscow – and to Putin personally, who has spent years building Russia’s relationship with China and increasingly relies on its political support and growing trade ties.
China has become Russia’s most important international partner since invading Ukraine last February. Referring to one another as “friends,” Putin and Xi have presented themselves as a powerful tandem, defying US hegemony on the world stage. On the eve of the invasion, the two countries entered into a strategic partnership without borders.
In practice, however, China has been careful not to provide support that could trigger Western sanctions, and Putin has publicly admitted that Xi has “concerns” about Russia’s actions in Ukraine.
Beijing has also sought to position itself as a peace broker between Moscow and Kyiv, an initiative that has drawn criticism from Ukraine and its allies given China’s close ties to Russia.
While the Kremlin has publicly dismissed the notion that it is a subordinate in the relationship, the notion that Moscow needs Beijing more than the reverse has stubbornly persisted.
That the leader of a private militia managed to seize control of one of Russia’s key wartime command centers and get within striking distance of Moscow is likely to shift power in the relationship even further towards Beijing, analysts say.
“This cements Russia’s status as a junior partner,” said Livia Paggi, managing director and head of political risk at JS Held. “Russia has already become completely dependent on China for oil and gas sales, for example. That will be even more the case now – there is no doubt about that.”
Russian energy supplies to China hit record highs last year, with Moscow overtaking Saudi Arabia as the top crude oil exporter to China, and gas flows through the Power of Siberia pipeline are also increasing.
However, volumes were not enough to replace Russia’s lost gas and oil revenues from previously lucrative European markets, as countries such as China and India were able to siphon off Russian crude at discounts of more than 30% compared to global benchmark Brent.
Additionally, Beijing’s energy policy aims to favor diversified sources, and despite repeated high-profile overtures over a new multi-billion dollar Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline that would draw gas from Russian fields that previously served Europe, Beijing has yet to commit to it Project.
Politically, for Xi, the most important aspect of the Moscow-Beijing alliance is Putin’s ability to work with him to counter the United States on the international stage, said John K. Culver, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council Global China Hub and former CIA officer.
“In this context, China will support Putin if he continues to call the shots in Moscow. If Putin falls, Beijing will wait for the dust to settle and move forward with the new power structure, perhaps with a fresh chance to advise Russia to break away from Ukraine and get back to long-term competition with the alliance between the two countries United States and the West,” he wrote Saturday after the mutiny was crushed.
While China’s President Xi has yet to make any high-profile comments on the situation in Russia, Moscow’s Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko was in Beijing for a meeting with Chinese officials on Sunday.
Speaking at the meeting, Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia said: “The Chinese side expressed its support and interest in the efforts of the leadership of the Russian Federation to stabilize the situation in the country in connection with the events of June 24.” Strengthening the unity and further prosperity of Russia.”
While China may not have shown public support during the crisis, analysts said there is no doubt which side Beijing is supporting.
There will have been “huge relief” in China that the armed uprising was crushed, said Paggi of JS Held.
“China needs a Russia with which it can be a real partner. And for China to have a partner, it has to be strong. Russia can’t be in ruins – that doesn’t work.”