The mutiny initiated by the Wagner group on Saturday raises many questions about the stability of the Russian regime and the continuation of the war in Ukraine.
The Wagner group eventually backed down. For 24 hours, Yevgeny Prigoyine’s epic frontally challenged Vladimir Putin’s authority by sending his troops towards Moscow and promising to “liberate the Russian people.” But at the end of the day, on Saturday, June 23, the head of the paramilitary group turned around and ordered his troops to evacuate their positions in several Russian cities. This short and spectacular uprising, which could be interpreted as pressure on the Kremlin and the military leadership, threatens to leave deep scars in Russia.
What was Prigozhin’s goal?
One of the most widely shared hypotheses remains that Vladimir Putin’s former “cook” attempted to overthrow key leaders of the Russian army, most notably Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff Valeri Gerassimov. For months, Yevgeny Prigoyine has been attacking the high command of the Russian army via videos, often to demand more ammunition, and accuses the general staff of being incompetent in the conduct of the war. The dispute has also been exacerbated lately because the army has asked the Wagner Group battalions to sign a “contract” with the Defense Ministry by July 1.
This situation could be another explanation for Prigozhin’s initiative. “Like any mercenary, when he is no longer paid (…) he demands to be paid and deserts when he is not paid,” analyzes geopolitical adviser François Chauvancy on franceinfo. The leader of the paramilitary group made “his communication campaign” by exerting “media pressure” on Vladimir Putin.
The aim of Prigojine was not to trigger a civil war, Peer de Jong, another geopolitical specialist, confirms to franceinfo. “The goal is that things go well, that the doors open and that he goes straight where he needs to go,” analyzed this specialist on Saturday before the rebel’s about-face.
Yevgeny Prigoyine’s epic could also have come about as a reaction to the Russian army’s alleged attacks on his troops’ positions, according to Wagner’s boss. If these attacks are proven, it means that “Moscow wanted to get Prigoyine out of harm’s way,” explains François Chauvancy in Le Figaro. On the contrary, if these strikes had never happened, it could be an excuse for Wagner’s boss to “start a riot aimed at thwarting an upcoming ‘Night of the Long Knives,’ in which he would have been eliminated,” suggests General Chauvancy.
Why did Prigozhin finally turn around?
“Prigojine was given guarantees” that he would turn around, estimates François Chauvancy on franceinfo. “We had to make significant financial commitments to Prigojine and tell him that he will find a good job, maybe even better thought out,” the specialist continues. Even the leader Wagner “can’t afford a bloodbath because he presents himself as a patriot,” agrees Peer de Jong, a former naval colonel. It “was in the best interest.” [de la Russie] “To avoid a bloodbath,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Saturday evening.
None of the fighters of the Wagner Group, which plays an important role alongside the Russian army in Ukraine, will be prosecuted for the coup, according to the Kremlin. “No one will follow [les combattants]considering their merits at the front, “Ukrainians,” assured Dmitry Peskov. The case against Yevgeny Prigoyine, who took the direction of Belarus, will also be dropped.
“We do not know the content” of this agreement, nuance on franceinfo Françoise Daucé, director of the Center for Russian World Studies. “The decision-making process is extremely opaque, we don’t know what will happen behind it,” she believes, despite the will to appease that Moscow has been showing since Saturday evening.
If the terms of the agreement with Wagner remain a subject of speculation, it appears that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, a close ally of Vladimir Putin, played a key role. According to him, it was he who suggested to Wagner’s boss to stop his advance towards the Russian capital. “We are grateful to the President of Belarus for these efforts,” said the Kremlin spokesman. “I have doubts about his real role and maybe he was used by Putin instead,” said franceinfo Olga Prokopieva, spokeswoman for Russia-Freedoms, a human rights NGO. “If Putin had negotiated directly with Prigozhin, he would have lost face a bit. He had to pretend to ‘mediate’.”
What will become of Wagner after this coup d’etat?
“It is a facade result for the immediate future to calm the situation, but we can assume that we will not stop it because there has been a form of humiliation of Vladimir Putin and the army high command,” commented Francoise Dauce.
The researcher cannot really imagine that mutineers can be reintegrated into “the regular ranks of the Russian army”. “Putin and the security services will probably try to weaken Wagner or remove PrigozhinIn turn, tweeted Rob Lee, a researcher at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in the United States. According to him, “the greatest impact will be felt in the Middle East and Africa, where Wagner is very present.” For François Chauvancy He, on the contrary, is not sure that Prigojine will be punished for this uprising: “Maybe he will even take his seat in Saint Petersburg to continue campaigning for influence, especially against France,” he believes.
What consequences for Vladimir Putin and Russian power?
“The only safe conclusion is that the Putin regime is weak and the criminals are devouring each other,” said Olga Prokopieva, spokeswoman for Russia-Freedoms. “There are only losers” in this aborted rebellion, notes Sylvie Bermann, former French ambassador to Russia between 2017 and 2019, on franceinfo. For her, not only is “Evguéni Prigojine the loser of fate”, but also Russia, in that she offers “the picture” of a country that is not doing well. In this affair, too, “Vladimir Putin is the loser,” says the former ambassador. The diplomat recalls that “stability was the watchword and the most important asset” of the Russian president, who “on the eve of the intervention in Ukraine wielded full power in Russia and was respected around the world as a powerful man”.
“We feel weakened, even if Putin’s power has never really been questioned.”
Sylvie Bermann, former French Ambassador to Russia
on franceinfo
“Wagner’s rebellion destroyed the myth of the unity of all Russia behind its president,” adds Françoise Daucé. She believes that this rebellion “stole the idea of a sacred union from behind the president by exposing the divisions within power itself.”
“The Kremlin is now faced with a deeply unstable balance (…) The Prigoyine uprising has revealed serious weaknesses,” emphasizes an analysis by the American think tank Institute for the Study of War. On the Kiev side, we also emphasize the shortcomings revealed by this mutiny. That’s what Mykhaïlo Podoliak, adviser to the Ukrainian presidency, says “Prigozhin humiliated Putin and shown that there is no longer a monopoly on the use of force.”
The Russian authorities must therefore react and let Prigoyine face the consequences of their actions, believes analyst Samuel Bendett. “Otherwise, the message is that a military power can openly challenge the state and others need to understand that The Russian state has a de facto monopoly on the use of force in the country‘ this researcher at the Center for Naval Analyzes tweeted.
Can this episode affect the conflict in Ukraine?
Wagner’s failed uprising will “in no way” affect Russian forces in Ukraine, the Kremlin was quick to announce on Saturday night. However, the impact on frontline troop morale is more questionable than ever. Former ambassador Sylvie Bermann reiterates that the war in Ukraine “is out of the question”, the uprising of the Wagner militias, albeit temporary, can nonetheless represent a kind of “victory for the Ukrainians who have stepped up their offensive”. During his televised address on Saturday, Vladimir Putin assured that this would not change his determination to fight a war, but that he emerged from it “mentally weakened”.
According to Ukraine’s Defense Ministry, the Ukrainian army also launched offensives against Russian forces on the Eastern Front on Saturday night, calling for “advances in all directions.” However, it is difficult to say whether Wagner’s uprising can have a direct impact on Russian forces stationed at the front. “Wagner is designed for attack, not for defense‘ researcher Rob Lee recalled on Twitter. “Their role during Ukraine’s counteroffensive was never clear.”