The uprising by the Wagner paramilitary group against Russian forces has confronted President Vladimir Putin with an unprecedented insurgency, raising the possibility of a violent conflict on his own territory, experts analyze.
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“It’s the first time we’ve actually seen an armed protest of this magnitude against Vladimir Putin,” said Guillaume Sauvé, visiting researcher at the University of Montreal’s Center for International Studies and Research.
In a blatant turn of events, the leader of the Wagner paramilitary group, Evguéni Prigojine, had declared that he wanted to overthrow the Russian military leadership. He accuses him of having bombed and killed several of his soldiers.
Prigozhin had announced that his troops had “made it through”. […] the Russian state border and entered Rostov in the south of the country in the direction of Moscow. By then, several thousand soldiers from the Wagner Group had been deployed in Ukraine to support the Russian army.
Citizens moved near a military vehicle in Rostov-on-Don on Saturday. AFP
“We continue, we will go to the end,” Evguéni Prigojine said in an audio message on Telegram. We will destroy everything that gets in our way.”
However, in a new statement on Saturday, he said his troops would return to fight in Ukraine to avoid a bloodbath.
Hard hit
This confrontation had forced the Kremlin to station troops on its own territory. Pictures provided by the New York Times show that a cordon was erected around Moscow to block passage to the Wagner group.
Members of the Wagner group, this Saturday in Rostov-on-Don. AFP
The paramilitary group poses a real threat to Russian territory, said Pierre Jolicoeur, a professor of political science at the Royal Military College of Canada (RMC).
“These are people who have combat experience and are equipped. This is no small rebellion. These are not protesters on a violent flooding street,” explains Mr Jolicoeur.
The experts interviewed by Le Journal argue that it is difficult to imagine the possible consequences of a confrontation. A coup would have been “surprising”, says Guillaume Sauvé.
“There should be a part of the staff in Moscow that sides with Prigoyine,” he says.
The other possible scenario: A civil war breaks out, leading to violent clashes.
Good news and bad news
In the short term, however, this confrontation could have served as a “distraction” for the Ukrainian army, reminds Pierre Jolicoeur.
“In a way, this is good news for the Ukrainians, because it may allow them to conduct their operations, their counter-offensive, more successfully,” he explains.
Should Evguéni Prigojine manage to overthrow the Russian command, “it would not be good news for the war,” adds Guillaume Sauvé.
Guillaume Sauvé is a researcher at the Center for International Studies and Research at the University of Montreal. Image courtesy
“He is someone who calls for universal conscription in Russia, […] Therefore, all Russians in arms and the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the researcher describes. He is a much more warlike person than Putin.”
Today the world has seen that the bosses of Russia do not control anything. Nothing at all. Complete chaos. Complete lack of any predictability.
First, the world should not be afraid. We know what protects us. Our unit.
Ukraine will definitely be able to protect Europe from anyone …
— Volodimir Zelensky (@ZelenskyyUa) June 24, 2023
– With information from AFP
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