On Sunday morning, when the sun was already moderately warm in the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, the streets were almost empty of tanks and uniformed men. Wagner’s masked mercenaries, who took control of the city’s official buildings on Saturday, withdrew overnight, partly to public applause. The leader of the mercenary group, businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin, who led the uprising against the military leadership holding the Russian security apparatus in check, left Rostov-on-Don cheering as if he were a celebrity. Meanwhile, the military column that Prigozhin was sending toward the capital, Moscow, turned back to prevent what he described as “Russian bloodshed.”
The uprising was the Kremlin’s biggest challenge in decades. Prigozhin has left Rostov-on-Don, ostensibly to travel to Belarus under an agreement to end the military coup attempt reached with the Kremlin and brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. Even if he left the city, it is clear that he left behind a very different Russia. The rebellion of the foul-mouthed Prigozhin, whose whereabouts are currently unknown and who had always remained loyal to Putin and Putin alone, has seriously challenged the Russian president’s image as a strongman. Moreover, it has exposed the cracks in an economy engulfed by battle, exhausted by the war in Ukraine, angry at the elites, plagued by inflation and nearly paralyzed by Western sanctions and the exodus of foreign capital. The immediate consequence, a Western intelligence source warns, is a renewed campaign of massive attacks on Ukraine to demonstrate violence.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed the deal with Prigozhin. “There was a higher goal – to avoid bloodshed, to avoid an internal confrontation, to avoid clashes with unpredictable consequences,” Peskow said Saturday night. “President Putin made the right decision.”
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The Kremlin has vowed to drop criminal charges against Prigozhin for rebellion, which carries a sentence of between 12 and 20 years in prison, and offered him unspecified “safety guarantees” through the Belarusian president. “The guarantee that Prigozhin can travel to Belarus is the word of the Russian President,” said Peskov. Meanwhile, Prigozhin, whose rebellion has been hampered by a lack of support from Russian elites, said Saturday night that his “march for justice” against Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu had achieved its goal. Shoigu and Prigozhin have had a bitter rivalry for years. Shoigu recently issued an order that would require all military contractors, including Wagner mercenaries, to sign contracts with Russia’s defense military before July 1. Nothing has come to light about a possible change in the leadership or operations of the Department of Defense. Peskov stressed that any reorganization was “the sole prerogative and responsibility of the Commander-in-Chief.” [Putin] in accordance with the Constitution.”
The Kremlin promised that the Wagner mercenaries involved in the uprising would not face any consequences because of their “services at the front”. Those who didn’t join the uprising can sign contracts with the Defense Ministry, according to Peskov. For the time being, the Wagner uprising and the Prigozhin accords mean that the Wagner group will be disbanded and integrated into the Russian army, just as Shoigu had wanted for a long time.
However, several analysts point out that what happens to the mercenary group, which is present as the unofficial armed wing of the Kremlin in Syria, the Central African Republic, Libya and Mali, could have global ramifications. Western intelligence sources indicate that it is not clear whether the mandate for military contractors to sign contracts with the Department of Defense includes overseas mercenaries. And this could be a point of the agreement with Prigozhin, who, according to US intelligence sources quoted by various media, has been preparing military action since Wednesday and brought this step forward on Friday afternoon.
The streets are returning to normal
Russian cities and regions on Sunday began lifting restrictions imposed on Saturday after the Wagner uprising. And while the “anti-terrorist operation” regime continues to rule in Moscow and Monday will be considered a day off, state television channels will broadcast their usual programs. But behind this semblance of relative normality lies a sense that the impunity with which Prigozhin has met resistance may have repercussions for the Putin regime. In addition, it could affect how the Russian president is viewed abroad, not only in the West but also among allies like China and India.
The deal with Prigozhin “is a short-term fix, not a long-term fix,” said the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank, which highlights that the Kremlin currently faces a “deeply unstable balance.” .” “Prigozhin’s uprising exposed serious weaknesses in the Kremlin and the Russian Defense Ministry,” the ISW added in its daily report.
Prigozhin’s rebellion and Lukashenko’s mediation to halt the military advance – which may have dealt a blow to Putin and provided certain advantages to the Belarusian president – have challenged Putin’s image as “guarantor of Russia’s stability”. But even that doesn’t put Prigozhin in a good position. Although he has won the support of a key section of the population with his criticism of corruption in the army and bureaucracy, it will now be difficult for him to lead the Wagner group, which was instrumental in the offensive against Ukraine.
Russia, via various sources, was quick to emphasize that Wagner’s armed uprising did not affect Kremlin forces in Ukraine. However, the uprising has made clear that Russia lacks rearguard reserves and that Russia relies on inexperienced recruits to defend the country’s borders – a point made clear when soldiers quickly joined forces with the Wagner Gruppe surrendered, who were able to advance without resistance.
Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said on Saturday he believed the crisis would spell the end of the current power structure in Russia. He argued that the armed revolt, even if it failed, would have serious consequences, including the “destruction” of Prigozhin. “This order will be carried out for sure,” Podolyak said on social media.
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