Troops of the Wagner mercenary group prepare to leave central Rostov-on-Don in southern Russia, June 24, 2023. ARKADY BUDNITSKY (EFE)
US intelligence suspected that the head of the Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was planning an armed uprising against the Russian government, various US media reported, citing anonymous sources. According to these sources, the information was leaked not only to military and government officials, but also to some lawmakers.
US President Joe Biden has been following the uprising closely since Friday. He keeps in touch with US allies from Camp David, Maryland, where he is spending the weekend.
CNN revealed that US intelligence agencies briefed congressional leaders – known as the Gang of Eight – about the Wagner Group’s movements and material buildup near Russia earlier last week. Members of American and Western intelligence agencies saw signs that Prigozhin was preparing for an insurgency, such as the stockpiling of weapons and ammunition. The information was later confirmed by other means.
According to the Washington Post, in mid-June intelligence agencies gathered information indicating that Prigozhin was planning an armed attack on Russia’s defense establishment and promptly notified the White House and other government agencies so they would not be taken by surprise.
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US intelligence did not have precise information about Prigozhin’s specific plans or when an uprising might occur. Wagner’s forces took control of a Russian city on Friday and began advancing toward Moscow on Saturday. However, US intelligence was aware of both the discontent and instability of the mercenary group.
According to the New York Times, on Wednesday intelligence officials briefed senior military and administrative officials that Prigozhin was preparing military action against senior Russian defense officials.
Unlike last year, when Washington decided to release the information the intelligence agency had gathered about Russian aggression to prevent the invasion of Ukraine, this time it was sharing the findings with a limited audience. According to the New York Times, this decision was made to avoid being accused of orchestrating a coup in Russia and because the government had little interest in helping Putin avoid the crisis.
The newspaper reports that over the past two weeks there have been “major concerns” about what could happen in Russia, and in particular what the instability could mean for control of Russia’s nuclear arsenal.
In recent months, intelligence services have analyzed growing tensions between Prigozhin and Russian Defense Ministry leaders, particularly Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Problems with supplying Russian troops with sufficient supplies heightened tensions.
A key trigger of the crisis was a June 10 order from the Russian Defense Ministry that required all volunteer departments to sign government contracts. Although the order did not mention the Wagner group by name, it did include the incorporation and subordination of Prigozhin’s mercenary forces, which proved essential to Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine and helped achieve some of its most notable tactical victories.
After seizing official buildings in the southern city of Rostov-on-Don – which borders Ukraine and is a key logistical hub for the Kremlin’s war effort – and dispatched a column of armored vehicles toward Moscow, Prigozhin announced Saturday night that he was completing the march will stop in the direction of the capital and that his soldiers would withdraw to their camps “to avoid bloodshed”.
US President Joe Biden discussed the situation in Russia with French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Saturday. The group also reiterated its “unwavering support” for Ukraine. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin made similar calls to their counterparts from allied countries.
In a statement, the Pentagon said the United States will continue to remain in close coordination with its allies and partners as the situation evolves. Biden has avoided comment and is following events from Camp David.
The national security team briefed Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris on the situation Saturday before the president left the White House. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan attended the meeting; Secretary of State Antony Blinken; Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin; the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark Milley; Avril Haines, Director of National Intelligence; Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) chief William Burns and US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield.
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