In the short video of Sergei Shoigu released Monday morning, there was no sound or clues as to where the Russian defense minister was as he pored over a battlefield map.
But the seemingly mundane footage was the first evidence that Shoigu was still at his job. Neither he nor Valery Gerasimov, the commander of the Russian invasion forces, have been seen in public since Yevgeny Prigozhin launched an extraordinary coup attempt to oust them last Friday.
Although Prigozhin and his Wagnerian paramilitaries eventually halted their march on Moscow and the warlord agreed to leave Russia, he has left both men in his entourage increasingly vulnerable.
The failed uprising has left Putin with a difficult choice – whether to sack the generals or let them command his faltering invasion. Both options carry significant risk of another setback for both the war and its regime, analysts say.
“Shoigu and Gerasimov are so bad at their jobs that it is dangerous for Putin to keep them in office,” said Dara Massicot, a senior political scientist at the US-based Rand Corporation. “But loyalty and stability come first for Putin. I just don’t understand how these terms should be dictated to him in this way.”
For months, Prigozhin has targeted Gerasimov and Shoigu, blaming them for Russia’s military deficits in Ukraine and portraying them as incompetent leaders sitting comfortably in Moscow while Russian soldiers died on the battlefield.
On Sunday, some Russian military analysts speculated that Shoigu and Gerasimov could be two more victims of the failed coup attempt, after Prigozhin and his fighters swept halfway from Ukraine’s border into Moscow, captured a military base and shot down several army helicopters – all within hours.
“Shoigu and Gerasimov are obviously lame ducks now and I think they will be removed,” said Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Moscow-based defense think tank. He did not rule out the possibility that the departure of the two men might have been part of the negotiated deal that led to Prigozhin withdrawing his men. The Kremlin has denied this.
The damage to Russia’s image was so great that even war commentators on state television and social media admit the coup put the entire war in jeopardy.
“This is a serious blow to the country’s authority and the president’s authority,” Karen Shakhnazarov, a film director associated with the Kremlin, said on a popular online livestream show. “There was a feeling here that everything was unshakable, and that wasn’t the case.”
Should Shoigu and Gerasimov eventually be ousted, it would be a dramatic downfall for both men – one a player in Russia’s slippery political hierarchy, the other a veteran military official turned commander of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The first – Shoigu – is the longest-serving minister in Russia, taking over the defense portfolio in 2012 after previously serving for decades as Russia’s emergency minister. This job gave him a public profile to rival Putin’s, with television appearances arriving by land or helicopter whenever Russia was hit by man-made or natural disasters.
Over the years he has accompanied Putin on vacation trips to Siberia, with the two men posing together in search of mushrooms; Wear sheepskin coats while dining outside in the snowy setting. and shirtless spearfishing in the summer.
In recent years, the fame and businesses of Shoigu’s family members, who had become the butt of hardliners for their privileged lifestyles and apparent isolation from the aftermath of war, have come under increasing scrutiny.
Gerasimov, meanwhile, feuded with commanders who did not approve of his brutal tactics in Ukraine, as generals and militia alike believed they were sacrificing too many men for too little gain.
Prigozhin’s criticism of Shoigu and Gerasimov – and the Russian military in general – has been smoldering for months. In a video message in early spring, Prigozhin fumed against the backdrop of a Russian cemetery. “You sit in your expensive nightclubs and your kids enjoy life by making YouTube videos. . . These guys die so you can get fat in your wood paneled offices.”
The reception Wagner’s men received in Rostov shows the popularity of Prigozhin’s tirades against the army leadership. When Prigozhin demanded a duel with Shoigu and Gerasimov on Saturday morning, Vladimir Alexeyev, deputy chief of Russia’s military intelligence service, laughed: “Take them!”
Recommended
As Wagner exited the southern city that served as the launch pad for the coup, crowds waved, cheered and took selfies with Prigozhin — but they booed the security forces who came in their place.
The main trigger for Prigozhin’s coup appears to have been Putin’s support of Shoigu’s push to force Wagner to sign deals with the Defense Ministry earlier this month.
“The problem with Wagner grew, it would reach a crisis point after that [declaration]. “Putin was probably warned and did nothing,” Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at CNA, a US defense think tank, wrote on Twitter.
Although Putin publicly supported Shoigu’s efforts, Prigozhin vehemently opposed it – aware of the damage such an agreement would do to his standing as a powerful warlord reporting only to Putin, according to a person who has known him since the 1990s.
“He fully understands that if he had turned into a zero, Shoigu would have taken care of him at some point. So he went all out and decided to show Putin that he’s the only real one out there and needs to be left alone with his money,” the person said. “He got it a little bit wrong and everything went wrong, as it always does [in Russia].”
Putin’s biggest mistake, Massicot said, was giving his support to Shoigu without finding an acceptable way for Prigozhin to save face.
“Basically, when he supported the Defense Ministry, that was a target for Prigozhin,” she said. “A competent statesman would have offered Prigozhin some inducement or something to redeem him. Obviously that wasn’t done.”
With Prigozhin now in exile, Shoigu’s position might even be strengthened, according to the person who knows the warlord – as Putin sees no reason to fire a loyalist.
“Shoigu is the only winner,” said the person. “He will remain secretary of defense forever.”