Yevgeny Prigozhin’s attempted coup in Russia opens up several scenarios. Dario Fabbri, director of Domino, speaking in Agorà on Rai3 on Monday 26 June, analyzed the situation between the war in Ukraine and Vladimir Putin’s possible next steps. After the compromise with the Kremlin, the head of the Wagner group fled to Belarus, although this was not officially confirmed. Minsk “is more than a satellite, Lukashenko is like in the nerve centers of the Russian state and Putin owes his political survival and is manipulated by him,” explains the geopolitical analyst. This points to some unusual details about Wagner’s uprising. For example, Prigozhin complained that his people had been hit hard by the Russian army in the past few days, but if he had said to march on Moscow because the war was going badly and Putin had been too soft, he would have had more Sympathy found part of sectors of the apparatuses and the population.
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In short, more than one thing doesn’t add up. According to some minority analyses, Putin is emerging stronger from this affair. Fabbri responds to this idea: “I can’t understand how he can come out of this stronger.” Of course, it’s fair to say that Wagner made a fool of himself for suddenly quitting, Lukashenko’s intercession was enough to get her to stop. It’s a bit strange,” the reporter points out.
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However, Putin “could get stronger in the medium to long term,” the analyst explains, and the scenario is certainly not reassuring. Because the Russian president could decide to “embody the soul that wants to end the war in Ukraine with the worst, even catastrophe,” says Fabbri. In short, in order to fully regain the power that until Friday seemed insurmountable, the tsar was finally able to accept the thesis of the hawks, “although his strength has always been to be the arbiter between the different factions” of the struggle in Russia. With potentially catastrophic consequences.