Ukraine’s presidential aide Mykhailo Podolyak said he believes “without a doubt” that the brief armed uprising in Russia over the weekend marks “the beginning of the end” of the war in Ukraine.
“It’s the beginning of the end, but the problem is that this ‘end’ can last for quite a while and we have to understand that,” Podolyak told ABC News in an interview in Kiev on Saturday.
“Russia has accumulated many internal problems, but it is not ready to accept defeat because it would mean the end of its two decades of dominance in global processes,” he added. “It would mean the end of Russian ambitions, because I have always said that the end of the war must not only mean a victory for Ukraine. It should bring about a reformatting of Russia itself.”
Ukraine’s presidential aide Mykhailo Podolyak speaks with ABC’s chief foreign correspondent Ian Pannell, June 24, 2023, in Kyiv.ABC News
A feud between Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Russia’s Wagner Group paramilitary organization, and Russia’s top military officials escalated on Friday night as Prigozhin’s forces left the front line in Ukraine and marched across the border to take the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don.
Prigozhin, once a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, accused the Russian military of deliberately shelling his fighters in Ukraine earlier in the day. For months before the revolt, the mercenary leader had been at odds with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff of the Russian Armed Forces General Valery Gerasimov over the conduct of the ongoing war in Ukraine.
On Saturday morning, a column of Wagner troops marched seemingly unchallenged toward the Russian capital, with Prigozhin threatening to “annihilate anyone who stands in our way.” But within hours, Prigozhin ordered his soldiers to halt their march on Moscow and return to their camps in Ukraine, saying he wanted to avoid shedding Russian blood. The Kremlin announced that it had reached an agreement whereby Prigozhin would move to neighboring Belarus – a loyal ally of Putin – along with his mercenaries and receive amnesty.
Members of the Wagner Group military company load their tank onto a truck on a street in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, June 24, 2023 before exiting an area at the headquarters of the Southern Military District, AP
The reason for the sudden end of the chaotic insurgency is a mystery, as Prigozhin appears to have held a dominant position, a senior US official told ABC News on Saturday. Still, the 24-hour mutiny was the greatest challenge to Putin’s authority in his more than 20-year rule.
Podolyak, an adviser to the head of Ukraine’s office, told ABC News he believes the political unrest is “the first phase of a huge civil war” in Russia.
“Whether someone wants it or not, Russia will have to go through it,” he said during Saturday’s interview.
According to Podolyak, Ukrainian intelligence had previously warned that such events could occur and could bring the end of the 16-month-old Russian invasion of Ukraine “closer”.
“We fully understand that the events we are witnessing in Russia today can significantly accelerate the process of ending the war and significantly accelerate the beginning of the transformation of the political system in Russia itself,” he added.
Ukrainian soldiers of the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade Magura fire a BM-21 Grad multiple missile system at Russian troops near a front line in Zaporizhia region, Ukraine, June 25, 2023. Serhii Nuzhnenko/Radio Liberty via Portal
When asked if his country was involved in the Russian mutiny, Podolyak told ABC News, “Ukraine is undoubtedly implicated in what is happening in Russia today.”
“By defeating Russia on the battlefield, we are dismantling the myths on which Russia was based and on which Putin’s power structure was built,” he said. “So it offers other actors – both political and military and others – an opportunity to claim their interests and express their ambitions. So we are caught up in all these events, and the more defeats we inflict on Russia, the quicker the end will come to Russia as it is now. And this is important not only for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, but also for future global security.”
Podolyak noted that Ukraine’s counter-offensive launched earlier this month is only at an early stage and “the intensity of our operations will gradually increase.”
“The intensity of attacks on Russian logistics will increase,” he added, “and we will increase pressure on the first and second lines of Russian defenses.”