Two young migrants were held at Napier Barracks, a former British military facility in the town of Folkestone on January 1. DPA via Europa Press (DPA via Europa Press)
The Illegal Immigration Bill, sponsored by the government of Rishi Sunak, is the Prime Minister’s desperate attempt to stem one of the problems that polls most worries Conservative voters: irregular arrivals of immigrants on the shores of England. The main objective of the measure, as Sunak himself explained, is to discourage people from making the long and dangerous journey. However, the UK Home Office has been able to ignore the uncertainty created by the plan and set out what it calculates will be the economic impact of the new legal framework.
The deportation of a single person to a third country like Rwanda – one of the planned star measures – will cost the British treasury £169,000 (€197,000 at current exchange rates). Those responsible for calculations as cold as they are uncertain, using artificial intelligence, dare to venture that the new plan will be profitable from the moment 37% of immigrants arriving on the coast of England are intercepted in small boats. In accounting jargon, which those responsible for the inside can easily use, the break-even point (breakability point) is reached.
“The Economic Impact Report clearly shows that the worst option is to do nothing, as both the volume of illegal immigration and the asylum system have increased significantly in recent years, mainly due to the arrival of small boats,” says Interior Minister Suella Braverman in a personal statement accompanying the publication.
The minister highlights that the Government could end up saving up to £100,000 (about €116,000) for each immigrant retained, which she says is promising information. To arrive at this calculation, Braverman recalls that in 2022/23 the UK spent €4.2 billion in support costs for the asylum and refugee system and nearly €7 million per day accommodating thousands of waiting applicants in hotels .
“The economic impact report,” Braverman points out, “also includes a number of non-monetized benefits (sic) resulting from preventing boats from arriving, such as: reduced numbers of people willing to ship the to undertake an unnecessary and dangerous journey.” across the English Channel; a reduction in pressure on public services and the housing market [del Reino Unido]; and unburdening other benefit systems by reducing the number of immigrants who rely on the system,” the minister lists.
The Sunak government insists on officially labeling all these people “illegal immigrants” rather than “irregulars” as suggested by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. According to figures published by the Home Office in its economic report, 299 boats arrived on the English coast in 2018; in 2019 1,843; in 2020 8,466; in 2021 28,526 and in 2023 45,755.
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Rwanda’s solution
The British Prime Minister included illegal immigration policy among the priorities of his tenure, along with fighting inflation. However, in recent months she has had to backtrack on promises of impossible categorization, such as halving the number of people waiting for an answer to their asylum application before the end of the year. Currently there are more than 160,000.
The government has included a draconian measure in the new law: no immigrant arriving in the UK irregularly – with exceptions such as some minors or situations of persecution and mortal danger – will not be able to use the asylum application procedures.
But Sunak has also given the green light in practice for the rental of at least three giant floating vessels — “floating prisons,” according to right-wing organizations — which will remain moored in ports in the country’s south to hold prisoners. Newcomers (about 500 men per boat).
Last December, the Supreme Court of England and Wales gave the green light to the process of deporting irregular refugees to Rwanda. Downing Street signed an admissions agreement with the African country during Boris Johnson’s tenure, which was taken over by the Sunak government. If the Court of Appeal examining the appeal against this ruling makes a final decision next Thursday upholding the decision, the first planes to Kigali could take off next September, as expected by the Interior Ministry.
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