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LONDON — The repercussions of the fiercest challenge ever to Vladimir Putin’s 23-year presidency were still being felt among Moscow’s elites on Monday, when questions were raised as to whether the Russian president had lost control of the country, at least for a moment.
Addressing the nation on Monday for the first time since the chaos of this weekend’s armed uprising, Putin thanked the populace for “unity and patriotism,” which he said clearly shows that “any attempt to stem internal unrest.” cause, is doomed to failure.”
But the armed uprising by the leader of the Wagner mercenary group has shattered the carefully crafted myth that laid the cornerstone of Putin’s presidency – that he stood for stability and strength – and many in the upper echelons of Russian politics and business are wondering if he was It can recover from it. Some even hinted that a search for Putin’s successor might be underway.
“Putin has shown the whole world and the elite that he is nobody and capable of nothing,” said an influential Moscow businessman. “It’s a complete collapse of his reputation.”
“Games are being played that nobody understands,” said a Russian official close to senior diplomatic circles. “Control of the country has been partially lost.”
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Members of the Moscow elite grappled with how it was possible for the renegade force of Wagner mercenaries to so easily seize control of the Russian Army’s main command center for the war in Ukraine in the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, without surrendering to them resist and then advance hundreds of kilometers by road to Moscow before Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner group, finally decides to turn his troops around.
“How is it possible that they drive tanks hundreds of kilometers north towards Moscow and are not stopped,” said an aide of a Moscow billionaire. “There was no resistance.”
“When thousands of people march in columns and nobody can stop them, the loss of control is obvious,” said a Russian billionaire, who like others spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retribution.
In his speech, Putin stressed that all steps had been taken on his direct orders to “avoid major bloodshed.” He explained that “those who made the mistake” must be given time to “recognize that what they did was strongly rejected by society” and that what they did “had tragic and destructive consequences for Russia.” pulled.
However, the question remained how Putin could have allowed Prigozhin, a close confidante since the 1990s, to evade charges of instigating an armed insurgency – especially since his forces shot down helicopters and a military plane and at least 13 Russian ones Soldiers killed Russian military bloggers. After stopping his troops, Prigozhin moved to Belarus, from where he intends to continue operating his private mercenary group Wagner, according to an audio message he released on Monday.
“This should be a terrorism case. These were very serious crimes,” said the first Moscow businessman. “But nothing was done here either.”
Prigozhin, in the audio message published on Telegram on Monday – his first testimony since agreeing to halt his march on Moscow – insisted that he was trying to ensure the survival of his Wagner group and was not trying to overthrow Putin. He said he feared his group would be taken over by the Russian military and was trying to ensure those who committed “a large number of mistakes” in the war in Ukraine were punished. The Wagner leader’s verbal attacks on Russia’s military leadership, which he has been waging for months, have exposed deep divisions within the Russian elite over Putin’s conduct of the war, as well as the Russian president’s general policies.
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The events of the past few days “show that the country is not moving in the right direction,” said Sergei Markov, a political adviser linked to the Kremlin. “If nothing changes, it will definitely happen again.”
Two Moscow business leaders said that Prigozhin’s mercenaries could not have advanced so far unhindered on the way to Moscow if they had not been supported by part of the Russian security services. Chechen fighters dispatched to Rostov-on-Don appeared to do nothing, one of the Moscow businessmen said, while other forces dispatched to counter Wagner troops blew up just one gas station in Rostov and another, plenty left larger ones in Voronezh. further along the route to Moscow, intact. These regular Russian troops blew up just one bridge to slow the progress of the uprising.
“It was as if they were just showing the President that they were doing something, but in fact they were doing nothing and the Russian President was not controlling anything,” said this businessman. Prigozhin’s struggle to lead the Russian armed forces may represent a deeper struggle within the Russian security services for the future Russian presidency, he said.
Most disastrous for the Russian president’s image was his decision to strike a deal with Prigozhin rather than risk a potentially bloody battle if the Wagner leader’s men reached the outskirts of Moscow, where special forces were preparing to defend the capital, analysts said and business executives.
“It is very problematic for the elite. Because visually, Putin looks weak and like a character who was scared and forced to compromise,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of R.Politik, a Russian political consultancy based in Paris. “But subjectively, Putin came out of the situation successfully for himself. The alternative would have been a heavy, bloody battle on the outskirts of Moscow, which would have been even worse.”
The question remained whether the agreement with Prigozhin will stand, and there is a great temptation on both sides to break promises made “on condition of shock,” Stanovaya said.
Prigozhin’s uprising “revealed many weaknesses in the regime,” Stanovaya added. “Putin will take this very seriously and will try to cover the weak points.”
But others said the clock was already ticking on his reign. Some in the Kremlin “are now looking for a successor, and if they look too long someone else will find one for them,” said the Russian official, who is close to top Russian diplomatic circles, noting that the Ukrainian armed forces had already done so for them took advantage of the chaos in Moscow to advance their counteroffensive.
“Ukraine is pushing towards Dnipro, Kherson and Bakhmut. In 1917 there was a mutiny, Russia lost the First World War and the regime fell. In 1991 Russia lost the Afghan war and the regime fell. If we lose the war in Ukraine, the regime will fall and we will not get it back.”
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