“There will be changes” because “the event” from which Vladimir Putin “emerged very weak” “showed that the country is in an abnormal situation and is moving in the wrong direction”. So Sergey Markov, Putin’s former foreign policy adviser from 2011 to 2019, speaks to the Corriere della Sera and is convinced that Russia “will seek a way out of this situation, even through a semi-surrender, or will sharply tighten its position” , including general mobilization and an abrupt build-up of military power with the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons.” According to Markov, “the first hypothesis is completely impossible” because “if Putin makes concessions, the Americans will never compromise, they will see it as a weakness and it Follow through.” Convinced that what happened in Russia really was a blow to the country’s image, Markov says that with “the start of the special military operation,” the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia “certainly has proof its strength, but – he says – the current failure of this conflict is already a colossal symptom of weakness.” And “Prigozhin’s uprising betrays a clear dysfunctionality of the government and the presence of great discontent”.
According to Markov, Putin had no choice but to deal with Prigozhin because “Wagner is our soldier.” And Lukashenko’s resort to mediation was “a bit” a sign of weakness. Markov says he is convinced that “Shoigu will be deposed, but not now” because Putin “doesn’t like to do things under pressure. The Secretary of Defense,” he adds, is very unpopular with the troops. Prigozhin, on the other hand, “It is not clear if he will remain at the helm of Wagner, but – he concludes – knowing the man, I doubt he will agree to remain on the sidelines.”