Russian President Vladimir Putin’s brutal campaign to contain Ukraine’s accession to NATO has inadvertently boosted the military alliance’s popularity among other potential member states.
As Russian attacks on their neighbor intensify, nearby Finland and Sweden are revisiting their longstanding positions of military neutrality, with most voters now favoring membership in the 30-member alliance for the first time.
According to opinion polls released on Friday, half (51%) of Swedes and 48% of Finns said they would support their country’s NATO membership, while about a quarter opposed it. An earlier poll in February also showed Finns in favor of the majority.
Speaking on CNBC on Monday, the former Finnish prime minister said the recent Finnish poll represents a “coup” in public opinion, reflecting the “rational fear” the public is currently experiencing.
“[It’s] fear of an aggressive superpower in the face of Russia. Fear of the aggressor and military force,” said Alexander Stubb on CNBC’s Street Signs of Europe.
Difficult process
Potential NATO members can apply to join the defense bloc by meeting certain political and economic requirements, with existing member states voting for final admission.
However, any move towards joining the two Scandinavian states is unlikely to be quick or easy.
Right now, we do not want an escalation of the crisis or a war here in the northeastern part of Europe.
Alexander Stubb
professor and director of the European University Institute
Putin has long viewed NATO’s refusal to block the membership of its neighbour, Ukraine, as an act of military aggression, listing it among a number of preconditions for ending his current offensive. The admission of Finland, which shares a 1,300-kilometer land border with Russia, the largest in the European Union, or Sweden is likely to meet similar resistance.
Indeed, the Russian Defense Minister has previously stated that such actions would have military consequences. It is reported that Russian warplanes have already invaded Swedish airspace.
Jeff Overs | BBC news and current affairs | Getty Images
The Swedish and Finnish authorities have so far shown no signs of testing this determination.
Swedish Defense Minister Peter Hultqvist told reporters last week that despite deepening cooperation with NATO, he would not change his position overnight based solely on public opinion polls.
Meanwhile, Stubb, who served from 2014 to 2015, said the current government is increasing military spending but is stopping short of joining NATO.
“Now we don’t want an escalation of crisis or war here in northeastern Europe,” said Stubb, who is currently professor and director of transnational governance at the European University Institute.
However, the shift in public sentiment is historic for two countries that previously had friendly relations with Russia, and another potential miscalculation in Putin’s war.
“I predict that as the war goes on day by day, support for Finnish membership in NATO will grow,” Stubb said.
“The train left the station,” he added.