In many ways Arsenal are in uncharted territory here.
After unexpectedly challenging Manchester City for the 2022/23 Premier League title by the end of the season, they have now settled on a £105m ($133m) transfer fee for West Ham United midfielder Declan Rice agreed, which exceeds City’s £90m offer for him.
That was Arsenal’s third bid this window for the England international. All have comfortably surpassed their current record transfer fee of £72m for Nicolas Pepe in August 2019 and they illustrate quite a bit about the club’s approach to next season.
Firstly, Rice has always been Arsenal’s main target. Second, manager Mikel Arteta’s constant rhetoric in press conferences this summer was understood and backed by the board – he has approved a record-breaking payment for a British player.
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The amount Arsenal are willing to pay in terms of the transfer fee for Rice may confuse some, but from the club’s perspective, signing the West Ham captain in this window is imperative.
Why? In developing their recruiting strategy over the past two summers, a number of factors have become apparent. The move from ‘Project Youth 2.0’ at the start of the 2021/22 season to signing experienced players in their mid-20s around this time last year was key in Arsenal raising their level.
Rice serves as a continuation of last summer’s strategy as a 24-year-old, who has started all 12 of England’s games in the last two major tournaments, has started 93 per cent (190) of his 204 league games for West Ham and them led to success I won the Europa Conference League final last month.
Additionally, he’s another player whose qualities lend themselves to more than one role, although the forthcoming signing of Chelsea’s Kai Havertz – who is likely to take over the No. 8 left-hand position for Arteta – would rank Rice as No. 6.
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With those pieces of the puzzle in mind, Rice is one of the few options that has the attributes and quality to rival the best in the league in this role.
At West Ham’s shirt he has gradually developed into a midfielder who travels forward with the ball but still has the experience of playing a more important role for both England and England. Rice’s defensive qualities (primarily his anticipation and timing on tackles) are immediately apparent when you watch him. This eye test agrees with the numbers: last season his actual win rate on tackles (meaning tackles plus tackles lost plus fouls committed) was the highest in the Premier League (69.9 per cent on 113 real tackles or 4.2 per 1,000 touches). of the opponent) among inside players and defensive midfielders.
By comparison, Rice played alongside Tomas Soucek at West Ham for most of last season and didn’t have to defend alone in midfield but excelled when called upon to do so. Everton’s Amadou Onana and Leeds United’s Tyler Adams found themselves in a similar situation to Rice, being part of a midfield ensemble for lower-half teams. Onana had a 67 percent true tackle win rate on 103 true tackles, or 5.64 per 1,000 enemy touches, while Adams had a 64.5 percent true tackle win rate on 138 true tackles, or 8.84 per 1,000 enemy touches.
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Despite falling from form in April, Arsenal midfielder Thomas Partey played that part of his role well for most of last season.
In 33 appearances, he achieved a win rate of 58.3 percent with 115 real tackles, i.e. 8.12 per 1,000 ball contacts by the opponent. This often helped Arsenal play a high line and dominate teams by keeping the ball in the attacking half, whether they had possession or not. For comparison, Manchester City’s Rodri had a slightly lower win rate on real tackles at 56.4 percent on 117 real tackles, or 7.47 per 1,000 opponent touches.
Elsewhere in midfield, Rice will be more counted on, but his past success rates bode well. Added security further back on the pitch could also give Arsenal’s more advanced midfielders even more freedom than they enjoyed last season, which works well with Havertz’s off-ball movement or the inclusion of Emile Smith Rowe in a more central role could.
What happens when Rice has possession of the ball as an Arsenal player is relatively unknown.
Some might see a risk in signing for a transfer fee in excess of £100m for what, like many in Arteta’s squad, will be a debut in the Champions League.
At West Ham, Rice was more likely to shift the ball to the wings, which could come in handy given that Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka played on the wings. Arsenal are more used to seeing their No6, be it Partey or last January’s new signing Jorginho, use vertical passes through the lines. Rice did so intermittently for England at the World Cup in November and December, but became more progressive and measured at the right time to give Arsenal time to breathe in certain games – such as Jorginho’s 2-0 away win at Newcastle United in early May – is a potential growth area.
Patience may be required during more deliberate possession phases when Rice is asked to repeat what Partey has done in that role for the past two seasons. However, Arsenal’s pursuit of Ajax defender Jurrien Timber could help. Last season, Ben White couldn’t play at right-back to the same extent as Oleksandr Zinchenko did at left-back. White occasionally offered that support from inside, but tended to stay in the same line of playmaking with centre-backs William Saliba and Gabriel before venturing forward to either overtake or overtake Saka.
If Timber takes on the right-back position with a slightly different take on the role as White, turning like Zinchenko so that Rice would have options both down the flanks and on the touchline, it could make for more interesting developments in Arsenal’s game.
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Arsenal’s last two summer windows have been all about squad building. This is no different. However, they are now at a point where it is necessary to add multiple high quality options in the same position in order to progress further than last season while adding more variety to their game.
Rice is a key component in Arsenal’s progression on both counts. Arteta knew it, sporting director Edu Gaspar knew it and that’s why they pushed so hard.
Arsenal don’t want last season to be an isolated one and the fact that signing comes so close to their key target before the start of July probably suggests it won’t be an isolated one.
(Photo: Catherine Ivill/Getty Images)