Europe turns right – and reshapes the EU – POLITICO Europa

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First it was Italy.

Then came Finland and Greece. Spain could be next.

Across Europe, governments are shifting to the right. In some places, far-right leaders are taking power. Elsewhere, more traditional centre-right parties are aligning themselves with the right-wing fringes, once considered untouchable.

Elsewhere, far-right parties are securing more seats in parliament and regional offices. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, already under surveillance over suspicions of right-wing extremism, is now outstripping Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats and has just won a turning point in the state election – an alarming moment for a country reeling from its Nazi past is aware.

Of course, the trend didn’t exactly start with Italy and far-right Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. But last year brought a series of striking results for the Conservatives. And there could be more to come as countries like Spain and Slovakia appear poised to turn right in upcoming elections.

It’s a development that will inevitably reshape Europe, affecting everything from how climate change is dealt with to parental rights to who is welcomed to the continent.

And with the EU set to elect a new European Parliament next year, the shift to the right could also result in a more conservative Brussels in the coming years – a time when important decisions on issues such as EU eastward enlargement, trade with China and oversight of the EU rule of law in EU countries.

“In the last decade or so there has been a convergence between the centre-right and the extreme right,” said Hans Kundnani, a European policy analyst at Chatham House, who attributed the larger arc to the wave of refugees fleeing Syria’s civilian war for Europe.

The postponement, he added, “could have profound implications for the EU.”

At the same table

Europe’s changing political landscape became clear this week in Brussels as EU leaders met for their regular summit.

A fresh face sat at the table: Petteri Orpo, Finland’s new prime minister and leader of the conservative National Coalition Party.

His country’s political developments over the past year illustrate the shift to the right that has taken place in parts of Europe. After four years of a left-leaning five-party coalition government, voters dumped Social Democrat Sanna Marin, leading to the formation of the right-most government in Finnish history.

Across Europe, governments are shifting to the right. Of course, the trend didn’t exactly start with Italy and far-right Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni | Carl Court/Getty Images

Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis also arrived with an election victory. The 55-year-old centre-right leader prevailed in Sunday’s national election, garnering a far larger majority than the first time.

The question of who takes seats at the EU table is important – the European Council, which brings together the Union’s 27 heads of state or government, ultimately has to decide on the EU’s political priorities and policy initiatives.

“I think we’re already seeing the Meloni effect,” said a senior EU diplomat, speaking privately to speak freely about the workings of the European Council. “On migration and on climate there is undoubtedly a move to the right.”

The first signs that Meloni was being welcomed, rather than isolated, came at her first EU summit last autumn.

As leaders tackled the thorny issue of migration, Italy’s leader found that she opened the door and found tacit support in the room for her desire for EU policy to focus more on banning migrants prevent them from coming to Europe at all, said three informed diplomats during the day’s discussion.

A few months later, moderate Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and centre-right European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, the EU’s top executive, accompanied Meloni on a trip to Tunisia to try to stem migratory flows from the North African country curb – a show of bipartisan unity.

The trip came just hours after EU countries reached a pro-Italy deal on taking in and relocating migrants that would give Meloni’s government more leeway to repatriate rejected asylum seekers.

And in Parliament

The shift to the right could soon reach the European Parliament as well, with repercussions for the way Brussels is run.

In less than a year, voters will go to the polls to elect a new parliament, and the Conservatives expect strong gains. First of all, that would embolden the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) – already the largest political family in Parliament.

“The biggest gains are likely to come from the more traditional centre-right parties,” said Karel Lannoo, head of the Center for European Policy Studies, noting the dominant role played by centre-right supporters like Germany’s Christian Democrats the biggest represent a national party You have no representation in the European Parliament and are likely to keep this position.

But a strong conservative stance could also see the far-right European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) faction, which includes Meloni and Poland’s nationalist Law and Justice party, becoming kingmakers, with centrist and centre-right lawmakers theirs Courting voices to advance their agenda.

That would reflect a growing feature of national politics – the willingness of traditional conservative parties to converge with the far right. From Sweden, where a conservative leader has support from the far-right Sweden Democrats, to Finland, where the right-wing populist Finns Party is in power, more extreme parties are given a chance to participate in government, albeit in a weakened form.

With the EU set to elect a new European Parliament next year, the shift to the right could also lead to a more conservative Brussels in the years to come | Patrick Hertzog/AFP via Getty Images

There are signs that a similar political calculus is underway in the European Parliament, with the EPP already eyeing beneficial collaborations with the far right. European Parliament President Roberta Metsola was the youngest EPP leader to pay tribute to Meloni. Visit It took place at the Palazzo Chigi in Rome last week, after Manfred Weber, leader of the EPP, carried out a similar action.

And the groups recently came together to fight a law to restore nature – a key building block of the EU’s plan to become carbon neutral by 2050. So far, the EPP – with support from the ECR – has successfully torpedoed the bill, citing farmers’ concerns and scolding the European Commission for going too far and too fast on the green agenda.

The uprising is a clear sign of the political chaos Parliament could wreak after the 2024 election via a more left-leaning commission.

There’s more to come

With a year to go before EU citizens go to the polls, the coming months will be marked by key moments that will shed light on which direction the political winds are blowing.

First up is Spain, where voters are going to the polls next month.

The country’s main centre-right party, the People’s Party (PP), is confident it will regain power after beating Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s Socialist Party in local elections last month.

As the campaign heats up, Sanchez warns of a possible merger between the PP and the far-right Vox party, hoping that the PP’s association with Vox could deter left-leaning, middle-class voters. But a return of the PP to power – which is likely – would cement Europe’s right-wing bias.

Elsewhere, Poland’s Law and Justice party – a center of right-wing power in the EU – tops polls ahead of autumn elections, while Slovakia is bracing for the comeback of populist leader Robert Fico in new elections scheduled for September .

Not all countries are following this trend – centrist governments in Ireland and Lithuania, for example, face left-wing challenges in the elections. And Germany, the EU’s most populous country, is still led by a Social Democrat. But even there, Olaf Scholz’s position of power is uncertain, and the rival Christian Democrats and the far-right AfD are gaining ground in the polls.

However, a breeze to the left – right now – cannot be compared to the jet stream blowing the other way.