The contract
Ryan O’Reilly signs a four-year deal with the Predators worth $4.5 million a year.
Dom Luszczyszyn: Ryan O’Reilly seemed to be one of the most overpaid players this summer, and it felt like the signs were already set when the Maple Leafs failed to re-sign him. He’s got a championship pedigree, a Selke trophy pedigree, a leadership pedigree – he’s everything hockey people love. That screams clear overpayment for a player who’s on the wrong side of 30 and has already shown rapid signs of decline in recent seasons.
Imagine our surprise if O’Reilly jumps in at a price that exactly reflects its market value. He signed for four years for $4.5 million and we reckon something close to $4.2 million is reasonable. Relatively speaking, this is a beautiful piece of work. It’s no bargain and doesn’t get an A for that reason, but it’s solid and way better than what we can expect on hockey’s dumbest day.
O’Reilly is a great playmaker and a smart player – that should help him continue in this league as his running speed continues to decline. A big problem, however, is that his defensive power has also waned and it’s becoming increasingly difficult to imagine him being able to continue to handle difficult periods in the third or fourth year of this contract.
For the Predators, O’Reilly is a great fit for a team looking to rebuild. He plays hockey the right way and can be a strong mentor to the team’s up-and-coming players. The acquisition of Matt Duchene and the trade with Ryan Johansen means that O’Reilly has a top six spot open to make a name for itself. The real question here is how long he will be successful at it.
contract class: B
fit grade: B+
Shayna Goldman: Welcome to the Barry Defiance era. The Predators did some work to clear two Center contracts. First, it was Ryan Johansen, whose game has clearly slowed down. Then Matt Duchene, who was signed as a center player but has now switched to the wing. Those moves paved the way for some young players to take on more significant roles, but it still made sense for Nashville to find someone to take on a more difficult role and make things easier for the up-and-coming players. This is where Ryan O’Reilly comes in.
O’Reilly obviously isn’t having its best season, but the big problem seemed to be playing alongside players who couldn’t take their chances in St. Louis. But in Toronto, that bounced back fairly quickly, so the offensive uptrend is still very much in place. Of course, he won’t be surrounded by players of the same caliber in Nashville, but he can be effective without an elite winger.
The big question is where his defense currently stands. It was really hard to figure out if his game was sluggish compared to the Blues or if his surroundings weighed on him given how this team began to crumble defensively last season. And when he switched to the 3C role in Toronto, he just didn’t have enough time to judge. That’s what Nashville is banking on with this contract. As of this writing, it’s a reasonable bet given where the Predators are that he can take some of those more defensive minutes to take some of the pressure off other players. They don’t have any other options anyway. But in the second half of this contract, that may not be the case. Ideally, by then some of the younger centers can move up the roster or management can look elsewhere to address the issue.
Add to that the leadership qualities he brings and how that helps the Predator culture, which seems to be a high priority for Defiance, and it all works out – and at this price point. This is a very solid deal for Nashville and a good deal for the player too.
contract class: B+
fit grade: A-
(Photo: Dan Hamilton / USA Today)