The race for president within Morena has begun with the first two weeks of the tour and the exit photo of the Corcholatas, as those who have raised their hands to take over Andrés Manuel López Obrador are called, is ready. According to an Enkoll poll for EL PAÍS and W Radio, Claudia Sheinbaum remains the candidate with the highest voting intention among the population and is valued most in terms of qualities such as closeness to people, honesty and her ability to live up to what she says Monday. The former leader continues to hold a double-digit lead over her closest competitor, former Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard, in terms of gross and effective citizen preferences. The former foreign minister is the best-known of those involved in the internal conflict and, in turn, the one who knows the country best, say those interviewed.
voting intent
Sheinbaum has 44% of respondents’ actual preferences, that is, the percentage of voting intentions that don’t account for those undecided or those who don’t choose one of the ruling coalition’s six internationals, according to the latest Enkoll surveillance. Ebrard has 26%. Adán Augusto López and Gerardo Fernández Noroña are technically tied in the battle for third place. The former home secretary is up to 11% while the Labor MP on leave sits at 10%. The difference between the two is within the survey’s margin of error, which is estimated at 2.83%. Ricardo Monreal has 6% and Manuel Velasco from the Greens has 3%.
For the gross preferences, which take into account those who answered “none” and “don’t know or don’t answer”, the order among the applicants remains the same, but with smaller deviations. Sheinbaum starts with 35%, compared to 21% for Ebrard. Adán Augusto López has 9%; Fernández Noroña, 8%; Monreal falls slightly to 5% and Velasco stays at 3%.
Regarding the evolution of respondents’ preferences over the past few months, the survey shows that Sheinbaum has remained in a range between 44% and 48% in actual terms. The former prime minister achieved a record high of 48% between August and November. In the measurements for the first half of this year, it stayed at 45% and fell to 44% in this latest episode, the worst result in this period. According to Enkoll, Ebrard swayed more. It started at 36% in the survey released in August, fell to 33% in November, fell to 27% in February, recovered to 29% in May and fell again to 26% in June, the lowest level. The rest of the contenders are further behind and have struggled to exceed 10% of effective preferences, although Fernández Noroña did so in May (12%), Monreal in February (11%) and López in June (11%).
Since last August, the number of undecided has also decreased, in line with the development of gross preferences. For example, last August, 12% said they didn’t know who to vote for, but in this last edition it was just 7%. The number of people who would not choose any of the corcholatas fluctuated by an average of 16% during those months, but fell to 12% in this last episode. The admission of further candidates, the separation of their positions to formalize their political ambitions and the establishment of the rules of the game in internal competition seem to have clarified the situation among the interviewees.
Among respondents who identify with Morena, Sheinbaum leads the way with 47% of actual preferences. Ebrard is second at 22%. The tie between López and Fernández Noroña remains at 12%. According to Enkoll, Monreal falls to 4% and Velasco remains at 3%.
attributes
Ebrard is the best known among respondents with 71% approval. Sheinbaum is close and has 69%. Four out of ten knew who Monreal was. López is further behind at 36% and right behind him is Fernández Noroña at 35%. Velasco is the least known with only 28%. Instead, 72% said they didn’t know who he was.
According to an opinion poll, the former chancellor is also the one who knows the country best. 35% think they know “a lot” and 27% think they know “a little”. Sheinbaum has 31% of respondents who answered “a lot” and 27% who answered “a little.” Fernández Noroña is third with 15% and López fourth with 12% of those who think they know Mexico well.
According to the survey, Sheinbaum is rated the best. 46% of people have a ‘good’ opinion of the ex-president, 8% say she’s ‘normal’ and 12% say she’s negative. On this criterion, Ebrard has similar ratings: 42% answered “good”, 13% answered “normal” and another 13% answered “poor”. There is no candidate who stands out as “scorned” by the electorate, although the challenge faced by the remaining candidates is that the majority of the population does not know them and has no opinion of them.
In other characteristics measured in the survey, the former prime minister has a clearer advantage. 31% think it is “very honest”, 26% say it is “not very honest” and 9% say it is “not honest at all”. In the case of Ebrard, 22% say he is “very honest”, 36% say he is “not very honest” and 10% say he is “not at all honest”.
Sheinbaum, the only woman in the internal contest, is also a leader in respecting women’s right to a life free of violence. 42% believe they “very respect” this right, while 27% say the same about Ebrard. When it comes to being close to people, 36% say Sheinbaum is “very close,” compared to 25% for Ebrard. While 31% think the policy is “broadly” in line with what it promises, 20% are positive for the former chancellor.
Morena typically includes the measurement of attributes in the processes used to define their candidates and is one of the most contentious points of the Corcholatas teams in the negotiations over the methodology of the internal poll that will be used to announce the winner over the next 6 September . The party has not yet announced an agreement on which attributes will be taken into account, how many will be included in the measurements and what weight they will be given. Sheinbaum staff believe the results in this area are in their favour, and try to give weight to these criteria, while Ebrard staff try to prioritize voting intent, affirming that there are polls that support this Designate option as the most frequently chosen option.
Methodology and other output photos
This latest issue presents a comparison of gross preferences versus Corcholatas from four other polling stations in June. Enkoll gives Sheinbaum a 14-point lead over Ebrard. The survey was conducted June 23-26 based on interviews with eligible adults in 1,228 households. 48% of the respondents were men and 52% women. According to the authors of the measurement, people from all over the country, from different age groups and from a representative sample of each socio-economic class were included.
Buendía y Márquez ranks the former prime minister 12% higher than the former minister, according to a poll conducted among 1,000 households between June 22 and 26. El Financiero newspaper shows Sheinbaum is 8% ahead of Ebrard based on phone interviews with 1,000 people conducted in two stages: June 16-17 and June 23-24.
De las Heras/Demotecnia conducted its survey of 1,400 homes between June 13 and 16, the week that applicants parted from their posts To as “Coordinator of Defense Committees of the Fourth Transformation” applicants permit. It’s the one that gives Sheinbaum the biggest lead in the win by a 21-point margin. Mitofsky, who raised the reading from June 8 to June 11 at 1,600 homes, says the lead in the applicant’s favor is just under 12%.
For its part, Ebrard’s team has published further surveys in the last few days, which provide different results. According to a poll conducted between June 16 and 22 among more than 1,070 people from across the country, polling firm GEA/ISA assures there is a technical tie between the two leaders. In Rubrum’s monitoring of Morena’s applicants, the former secretary gets a 10-point lead as of last Friday, based on automated phone polls. In a similar follow-up, Massive Caller finds that Ebrard is 1% ahead of Sheinbaum, a difference within the margin of error based on responses to 1,000 automated phone interviews. Collective Strategy points out that the former foreign secretary is nearly six points above, based on interviews with 385 people between June 22 and 25. Other publications cited by his collaborators include México Elige, Publimetro, and Saba Consultores.
The technical details of Morena’s internal poll methodology, as well as the pollsters chosen to conduct the four “mirror polls” to confirm the results, have not yet been released. When registering for the internal procedure, each applicant submitted two proposals from polling institutes in a sealed envelope.
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